Best sleeper pattern that nobody is talking about

[sekrah]

Bolo.

Really not terribly different than Firing Line. Just 1 point slower at the key points of development, and eligible to move forward enough to get a piece. Lots of stamina influence in the breeding and we know turf-bred horses will enjoy Churchill clay on the right day.

Of the horses that\'ll be going off at 50-1 and up, he\'s the most interesting one to me. I think he\'s a must use on a 3rd tier in the verticals, maybe even 2nd tier.

[ajkreider]

Love the pattern at the odds.  Hate the running style for this race.  I will use him a little, but for a horse who appears need to be clear, he\'s in the wrong spot - will be getting a beer at the concession stand turning for home.  Smith jumps on Far Right.  Can\'t help but feel he\'s a sucker bet.

[sekrah]

I think he can be taken back.  I thought Smith rushed him up after the first turn of the SA Derby, when he felt the pace was a little too dawdling.  We\'ll see. I think he can juice the verticals if we get the hot pace.  Trakus did have Bolo running 43 feet further than Dortmund.  

Far Right does nothing for me.

[jbelfior]

Smith doesn\'t like his action on dirt. Owners want to run trainer does not.
With all of the stamina in his pedigree, he doesn\'t look like a colt who wants a 1 1/4 --at least not right now. Wide trip with a turf horse who may hesitate changing leads. But you could do worse among those that will be > 40-1.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[boston]

AK type of work?  I think so.  It does not get easier.

The best explosion when asked of any work thus far.

http://www.hrtv.com/videos/workout-bolo-42415/?VideoCategoryId=0

[sekrah]

Pretty impressive to have poor action for dirt, and still have possibly run 43 feet further than Dortmund.

[Tavasco]

Looking solely at the sheets from last years derby. Seems to me the top finishers all had some slight variation of the following pattern.

1. Final two year old race a top or a pair next out from top.

2. First three year old race approximately their last 2 y/o race

3. Second three year old race a new top

4. Next Race A Continuation Either a) an improvement or pair in the derby or b) an intervening pair then improvement or pair in derby.


A. CC TOP || Pair Top Pair Top  Had a third race (idling) before new derby top

B.CC TOP || Pair Top Top

C. Danza  TOP || Pair* Top Pair  * not technically a pair short horse off long l/o
D WS Pair || X Pair Top 2   This one threw in a bounce 1st 3 y/o then too big of a jump up slight derby regression but good #

E. Samraat Top || Top Pair Pair Pair Pretty much same #\'s as A Cal Chrome

Then the patterns begin to disperse. With the frontrunners (Wildcat Red, Vicar\'s In Charge) unable to so bringing up the rear. General A Rod had the right pattern and if memory serves trouble? @ CD.

I believe most call this a forging line. Ideally no regressions (some latitude for excuses) avoiding peaks and valleys is best. Last 2 y/o race s/b best of 2 y/o campaign. No 3 y/o hiccups.

I don\'t believe this is a sleeper pattern. But it did work in 2014.

[ajkreider]

Thanks for the link.  I saw it very differently.  I see the jock of the workmate looking back a couple times wondering where Bolo is.  Then the jock has him under a pretty good hold while Bolo is being urged on to get by.  A decent work but not wow.

[mjellish]

Agreed

[Molesap]

I saw the same thing, the other horse was under a pretty tight hold.  If you follow the gallop out, Bolo was repassed by the workmate and shut down pretty quick. A decent work, but not a sole reason to bet Bolo.

[sekrah]

After 59.3, he was clocked galloping out in :12.  Not exactly dawdling.

[boston]

They do not look like it but these colts are working fast.  Bolo - 59.6 for the 5f - in the gallop out 112 for 6f and 126.2 for 7f.

[sekrah]

Jeff Siegel\'s take:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a36IIdBNQp4

[boston]

Jeff states that \"he picks it up reasonably well\".  I disagree he blows by a work mate that is going fast.  He is behind by 2.5 lengths to ahead by 3 lengths on the wire.  I hand timed it and from the time he was first asked it took 15.02 seconds to change 5.5 lengths.

[sekrah]

After some digging I found that the workmate was Rosicky. 3 yo colt who debuted on April 5th at 6 1/2 furlongs.  4w closing, missed by a neck.  http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=04/05/2015&cy=USA  .. Not sure what kind of fig he would have gotten but I\'m just guessing in the 7-10 range. Jerry?

He\'s entered to run back this Thursday at 1 1/16.  http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA043015USA-EQB.html . Worth watching I guess.