Hypothetical...

[joemama]

How bout Dortmund in post 20, American Pharaoh in post 19.  Gates open Dortmund veers in uncontrollably to his left, wiping out AP, and causing the chances of both to be hopelessly lost.  Stewarts are silent, result stands. Then what?

[smalltimer]

Mike Smith orders two copies of the DVD. One for him, one for Hollendorfer.

[PatrickM]

Uncle Mo...

[Strike]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Which is the point of the question. And why it has
> to be factored into handicapping.
>
> A few years ago I knew of a Derby favorite who had
> a real serious problem, and the connections were
> thinking of running him almost up to entry time. A
> horse only gets one shot at the Derby, people
> don\'t always do the right thing.
>
> Fast horses are only fast if they run their race.


Reminds me of Grindstone in 1996 (Lukas). We heard all day he would scratch and of course never did. Won and was retired 5 days after the win (bone chips).

[Boscar Obarra]

TGJB Wrote:
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> The same medication is available for other races,
> but a far higher percentage run \"X\'s\" in the Derby
> than in other 3yo stake races. Almost half.



Probably many reasons for that,not the least, they run more not right horses, who they\'d scratch in any other race.

[ajkreider]

As far as Xs go, they are also running farther than most will again - farther than some probably should - even more so given the inevitable ground loss. When a one-turn miler goes 1 and 1/4, we should expect an X.

[bellsbendboy]

No question the ten furlongs causes colts problems but to me the extreme weight carried is much more of an issue.  Trainers must squeeze the lemon just to get their horses here and if their not over the top going in many will be by the eighth pole.

bbb

[TGJB]

My point.

[pizzalove]

I would also say materiality.  And yes this does play into my handicapping.

[mjellish]

Ok Miff.  You make a good point.  But when I say race day meds I mean meds given to help a horse on race day.  Meaning meds they don\'t give every day or whatever.  For example, here\'s the official med records for the last triple crown race.  Belmont stakes run on 6/7/14:

http://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/06.05.14.BelmontStakesDayBelmontStakes.pdf


Go find a vet and ask them what this would do for a horse that raced on 6/7/14 verses how they might feel before getting them.  Then add your cold tub stuff, etc., and squeeze...

[T Severini]

Not exactly sure what horse TGJB is referring to, but I\'m not near prepared to discount Materiality just yet.

The horse I\'m seeing holes in is the likely favorite. He\'s beaten a bunch of empty cans and he\'s going to get tested here for the very first time and that test is gonna be a dang good one. His stable mate may even sink the dagger in!

Hey Richie......waasssssssss up

[jp702006]

Other than Materiality beating Upstart and Dortmund beating Firing Line, who have any of them beat? The favorites basically won every Derby prep.

[T Severini]

This theme arises in every Derby, \"Who have they beat\"?

If you go by pure Figures they say it doesn\'t matter right?

I think Frosted is quite a bit of horse. As is Upstart. As is Sanford and Materiality.

I really don\'t think Adrian Peterson has beaten a playoff caliber team. A little misfortune and the balloons could be very big. He really has had it all his own way. My strategy will be to beat him out of as much as I can. The draw will determine the ratios.



jp702006 Wrote:
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> Other than Materiality beating Upstart and
> Dortmund beating Firing Line, who have any of them
> beat? The favorites basically won every Derby
> prep.

[PatrickM]

Not that I intend to bet the horse but Mr. Z has faced EVERYONE. Obviously he\'s lost to a handful but he dances with anyone on the floor. From a who\'s beaten who perspective, this guy clearly has beaten the best and no shame losing to Dort. AP and CD. I\'d probably have to insert him in the 4 hole (and maybe 3rd) if 30/1 or higher.

Good luck

Patrick