Upstart

[Silver Charm]

Faster than all of these at 2. Faster than nearly all of them at 3. Run on sloppy tracks, slow tracks, fast tracks. Most years a horse like this would be the one to beat. This year he is being listed at 15-1.

[justwin]

Agreed, he is my key. Love the pattern. 3 races back a new top, then slight bounce & right back to the new top. Should go forward and he\'s a huge price with a real chance. I will include Frosted as a backup play and I will have a saver with AP on top of tri\'s & super\'s. Danzig Moon will be my longshot in exotics. Seminar & Posts will have a say in my plays as well. I\'m not as sold on Firing Line as others. Even if he goes forward he will not win. I can\'t see a big forward move with his pedigree. Gotta toss some of these.

[sekrah]

Yea, I\'m not sure how he wouldn\'t be everyone\'s key. I\'ve seen horses that figure less than this go off at 3-1 in this race.

Edit: I just grabbed 20-1 at my offshore book.  I think the secret is getting out.  Would be surprised if he\'s this high on Derby day.

[jack72906]

This is the one horse I am having the toughest time with because of everything you said, SC. I\'ve read several posts and heard many comments about how deep and tiring the GP surface was this winter.

Does he need a break or is he just a freak? He\'ll be between 10 and 20-1 with that pattern....tough call

[reboundman]

I know numbers are numbers, but Upstart looked completely gassed at the end of the Florida Derby to me. Can\'t imagine the added distance is going to help.

[sekrah]

You think he was gassed? Imagine Ami\'s Flatter who he beat by a growing 12 lenghts. The fourth place horse was 7 lengths back of AF.  Gulfstream was terribly slow that day. Take a look at the splits of the Gulfstream Oaks with Birdatthewire winning. Commissioner won the Skip Away S in 1:58.6, they came home similar and the first 6f was 1 1/2 second faster in the Florida Derby.  What he and Materiality did was WAY more impressive than what Pharoah did in the Arkansas Derby.

Here\'s a very bold statement on how screwed up the public is when it comes to Derby betting: If either one of Materiality or Upstart had run in the Arkansas Derby instead of the Florida Derby, the horse that ran alone in the Florida Derby could have possibly been the favorite for the Kentucky Derby instead of American Pharaoh!.  Soak that up for a little bit.  Instead, AP knocked over some tomato cans and is your 5/2 favorite.

I watched him be the only front runner to hang on to hold off closers in the Fountain Of Youth.

I watched him pull away from Frosted after they both Merry-Go-Round the first four furlongs of the Holy Bull.

I watched him barely lose 2nd by a nose to Carpe Diem in the Juvy after being on the front of a hot-pace, with Carpe Diem coming well-off the pace.

Horse has been a beast and if he runs his game, and gets a good trip, he\'s going to be freaking tough.

[mjellish]

Sek, last time I told you your horse had no shot at getting 1 1/4 I watched him buzz by me at 1/16 pole and win the Derby.  So I\'m going to keep my opinion on this colt to myself.  But I will say this.  I\'m not a pattern expert.  But I like to think I know my way around a sheet a bit, and I truly don\'t know what to make of Upstart\'s pattern.  He\'s coming off a number he reacted to last time.  But he\'s got an extra week here and he was very fast at 2.  So that big number doesn\'t represent a ton of development and maybe he can handle it now.  To my eye, I would say that makes him 50/50 to bounce or run an off race, and 50/50 to pair or maybe even a slight chance to run a new top.  But if he pairs he\'s very fast, and if he only goes back a bit that would still put him right there unless he loses a ton of ground and a few of the others run huge.

So if you go strictly off his sheet using TG data and don\'t play him to bounce badly, how do you not key him or make him a strong use at his likely odds?

[sekrah]

Did you read my \"Pre-Draw Analysis\"?  He\'s my #1a right now. Unless he draws horribly or looks rough in his gallops, he\'ll be my big key.

[mjellish]

I think you will have a lot of company around here, and the Rags users are going to like him too.  Vito must be all over this one and chomping at the bit.

[sekrah]

Yeah, I jumped on the 20-1 on the offshore books. I don\'t think we\'re getting that race day.

[ajkreider]

Did he and Frosted get in? Their flight was delayed a couple of hours.

[TGJB]

In terms of best figure, I count 8 horses within 1 1/2 points of each other on Ragozin. That\'s aside from some patterns looking entirely different.

[mjellish]

They won\'t be using Dortmund over there as he is unplayable on their stuff.  They also won\'t go near Mubtaahij.  They will like AP, Carpe and Firing Line though.  Dunno what they will think of Bolo.

[ajkreider]

They love him.  Nearly Dortmund at 10 times the odds.

[Silver Charm]

There was a hail storm yesterday and sloppy rain today. They will get into town. Hell 8 just made it. If th8s horse wins and pays $27.80 and you go back and look at his Sheet it will be the old \"what was I thinking\".

This Derby 8 a tough race but he destroyed that field in the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby was a Match Race. Take him back about 5 lengths off the pace and see what he can do. We already know he is fast