The Draw

[sekrah]

With the similar running styles, I do not think I\'d want to be in the auxiliary gate here.

[toppled]

As an American Pharoah supporter, I like #18 because 1)The horse inside of me is owned by the Zayats who will make it clear that he doesn\'t get in AP\'s way 2) There is no speed near him, he has about 7 horses he can clear almost from the start & get a good position.  Carpe Diem & Materiality took the worst of the draw among the logical horses.  Dortmund was the big winner of the draw.

[sekrah]

I thought Firing Line was the big winner.

[johnnym]

Love Dorts post,how wide does AP go in the first turn? Like Frosted in the 15 hole.. Carpe is now a toss for me along with Materiality..

[eljayar52]

Mostly neutrals for me. Three that were perhaps not: maybe a positive for Materiality and big negatives for AP and Upstart based on their to date running styles and previous post positions.

[Leamas57]

I don\'t know. Maybe I am only being Devil\'s Advocate here. You have DM down in there, who won\'t press, El Kabeir, who Calvin will movie to the rail. Tencendur will gun and probably so will Firing Line and Stanford. It\'s not where you would choose to be, but if either CD or Mater can settle 8th, 9th or so without have to run too wide or press the pace, it pays off later.

The way that AK, IHA and BB won from 19,20 and 11 posts, I suppose the trend says you want to be outside rather than inside. But anyone who uses too much energy to get to the turn or goes 4 wide around the first turn will probably be a casualty, too.

[pres711]

Disappointed  in19 slot for upstart, hoping for a IHA trip.  He was/ may still be my key.  Looking forward to seminar analysis.  Firing line, el Kaveri helped.

[sekrah]

pres711 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Disappointed  in19 slot for upstart, hoping for a
> IHA trip.  He was/ may still be my key.  Looking
> forward to seminar analysis.  Firing line, el
> Kaveri helped.


Yea it stinks, but atleast there\'s no speed in the 20 hole trying to race out and get across.

[louisvilleguy1111]

I think Upstart, Carpe Deim and Materiality the worse of it as for the true contenders for the race. AP draw was better then anything down inside IMO. So kinda a neutral draw for him. I think Frosted drew well at the 15. Dortmund may have got a bad post almost right in the middle of the field as speed on his inside and outside I def could see him being bumped in the first turn from both sides. I really think this post draw makes the race even more interesting from a betting standpoint.

Pletcher horses are def up against it in this field now.

[pres711]

Statistically his draw in the Florida derby was probably worst.  He still ran his eyeballs out, does every time.  Will probably spread a little more than planned.  Well see.  Wide may be better than bumper cars inside.  Will be 20-1 now.

[SoCalMan2]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As an American Pharoah supporter, I like #18
> because 1)The horse inside of me is owned by the
> Zayats who will make it clear that he doesn\'t get
> in AP\'s way 2) There is no speed near him, he has
> about 7 horses he can clear almost from the start
> & get a good position.  Carpe Diem & Materiality
> took the worst of the draw among the logical
> horses.  Dortmund was the big winner of the draw.

18 is good luck in Jewish culture.

[HP]

I\'m going to say that it makes absolutely no difference that the other stupid Zayat horse is in there next to him.  Is Zayat going to able to make sure he doesn\'t veer in front of AP.  It\'s a horrible draw for AP.  In order for him not to lose ground he has to work his ass off and butt heads with whoever else is up there, and there is no way he will walk up there by himself.  Outside draw is okay for a CLOSER.  Frosted got the best of it.

[jbelfior]

He was....and he will be dangerous.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[johnnym]

Upstart started in the 11 hole for the BCJUVY.I though he rated nice was 5 th at the 2nd call and finished 3rd losing 2nd on the last stride to Diem..
I can see an \"I\'ll Have another\" type of trip from him..
I would rather be in the 19 hole than the 2 spot..
Good luck

[sekrah]

Been looking at the draw more..

I\'m moving Danzig Moon up into my Top 5 with this draw. He\'s already got the intriguing pattern, and has been working like a beast.  He has a real chance at a quiet, ground-saving trip into the first turn, much like Super Saver. The speed underneath him will be gunning to get out of the meat grinder and he should be able to relax in a pocket behind the leaders.  It\'ll all be about a hole opening up for him.

It already feels like he could run a new top here, neg-1 maybe? A 1w in the first turn and he\'s halfway to the roses.