The Draw

[sekrah]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dortmund\'s work between horses on the 18th was as
> good as a horse can work (American Pharoah
> aside)and was the best of sixty that morning with
> a bunch left in the tank.  bbb


And there\'s 7 horses in this race who have ran faster figures than him.  Dortumund has faced none of those horses. What makes his races so special when there\'s 7 other horses running in different races around the country that have been faster?

I understand traditional handicapping techniques have people liking this horse, but this is not why I come to this forum and pay for TG figures.

My question is, why would anyone pay for TG figs and then go ahead and make Dortmund, a fringe contender on TG sheets at an awful price, as their key?  Why not just go with your regular handicapping techniques and save your $25?

[bellsbendboy]

Not to be antagonistic, but the short of it is, the given figure is not nearly as important... as HOW it was earned.  bbb

[smalltimer]

bbb,
you realize you will not win this argument?  LOL

[jack72906]

I use these figures because I trust them more than any other. That\'s why I spend the $40 on the seminar and pre-entries. Speed figures are one piece of the big puzzle. Yes we can see that there are seven horses faster, but will all 7 be faster than him on Saturday? For a lot of reasons, I doubt it.

I get that this is a TG board and we can discuss who is going to run the fastest figure on Saturday, but we all know that the fastest figure doesn\'t always win the race. Just ask Zenyatta

[number5858]

what might his figure have been if he didn\'t lose that shoe? i don\'t know what difference that would make, but I can imagine a little bit better. i am also not saying, \"make him your key\". i am just saying he has to be a contender.

[sekrah]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not to be antagonistic, but the short of it is,
> the given figure is not nearly as important... as
> HOW it was earned.  bbb


Hey, I adjust figures too based on how I see a race. The figs aren\'t in ink for me.  But I see nothing Dortmund did in any of his races to adjust any of his figures enough to make him a serious contender here.

What, he came back against a tiring horse so that\'ll be worth 2-3 extra points when he runs against better animals?  That is ridiculous if you believe that.

[ajkreider]

Agree that it\'s not terrible for Materiality.  Has enough speed and size to force the inside two to give way.  Nothing outside until Dortmund, who often doesn\'t get the best break.  Methinks the rail may be available into the first turn.

Dirt in the face may be another matter.

[sekrah]

Here\'s a statement I want you think about:

Flip Bolo and Dortmund\'s paths in the SA Derby, and Bolo beats him.  

If you don\'t believe that statement and if you believe Dortmund would have won just the same, then you are not using TG Sheets the way they were intended to be used. There are several amazing animals that haven\'t faced Dortmund and have turned in faster figs. If you think Jerry is selling Cali figs short, why bother purchasing them?  

Dortmund reminds of Union Rags. The horse looked good on traditional handicapping methods, but on TG sheets was about 7th fastest with a mediocre pattern, and people were tripping over themselves to send him off at 5-1.

[T Severini]

As a \"Beat American Pharoah\" handicapper, I\'m ecstatic.

It couldn\'t be better.

[johnnym]

Nobody wins all the time and hopefully nobody looses all the time..
Good luck
Good Seminar

[miff]

Bolo doesn\'t have the talent to do what Dortmund has done on several occasions. Not even close in ability.

[bellsbendboy]

Not getting into the argument.  Only responded because the poster indicated last night that Carpe Diem\'s spacing didn\'t appeal to him, and to me it is impeccable, and then tonight Dortmund is not working in the black.

The bottom line is that sheet figures are data and handicappers can assess that data any way they choose.  Correctly identifying when a pattern  (form cycle ) starts and/or stops, then using integers to support that theory is a good first step.

A case in point is Frosted, the Godolphin runner.  When he made the lead in the Fountain of Youth, with first blinkers, he looked a sure winner and stopped.  The barn left the hood on, made household changes, and bet as hard as a stable can bet.  The, then nonstakes winner, picked up a new boy, seven additional pounds and won the Wood well clear earning a figure good enough to win Saturday.  If one views his last as \"form\"... a major player.  bbb

[T Severini]

Didn\'t Union Rags win the Belmont?

Anyway, this horse is 17 hands and his pedigree is carried some by that stride.

Out of a Derby winner with a tail female Coaching Club of America Oaks winner in his pedigree.

If he gets beat, it will be pace that beats him. Haven\'t addressed the pace issue yet, but it will be a major variable in what the final winning figure will be.


sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here\'s a statement I want you think about:
>
> Flip Bolo and Dortmund\'s paths in the SA Derby,
> and Bolo beats him.  
>
> If you don\'t believe that statement and if you
> believe Dortmund would have won just the same,
> then you are not using TG Sheets the way they were
> intended to be used. There are several amazing
> animals that haven\'t faced Dortmund and have
> turned in faster figs. If you think Jerry is
> selling Cali figs short, why bother purchasing
> them?  
>
> Dortmund reminds of Union Rags. The horse looked
> good on traditional handicapping methods, but on
> TG sheets was about 7th fastest with a mediocre
> pattern, and people were tripping over themselves
> to send him off at 5-1.

[Tavasco]

Ah Pace. Yes for a couple of weeks I have been expecting a Materiality vs Dortmund hookup. Now after the post position draw that scenario (of the many) looks very possible. In fact the two could hook up for the 1st mile. Cassidy says he plans to take Ocho Ocho Ocho back to second tier and expects Carpe Diem to go with pace. Interesting?

The second turn ground loss MJellish forecast in his original analysis looms certain (IMO) in this scenario with the two BIG horses in the lead and others making moves. Who slips through inside? This c/b the key.

Some posters cite Bolos ground loss seemingly as a positive. I do not. I see Dortmunds ability to run a shorter distance as the positive. I\'m not a Dortmund fan, it\'s the principal. I will have no vertical tickets that include both Materiality & Dortmund. Kind of a Highlander thing.

Randy Moss, who sees races in terms of pace and is a part of the Beyer team mentioned his like for Mub. Last I think International Star is one of those most compromised by the draw. He\'ll be stuck in a box until it is too late to make an impact. Oh Well, not a fan of his either but I can now leave him off my supers with confidence.