Seminar

[aceriley]

Good seminar, very eye-opening. Good luck to all on Derby Day. My opinions haven\'t changed and some are contrary, for sure. Back to my question, I still don\'t know why the 0-2-X is a positive pattern but is at the same time the worst Thoro-Pattern in the race.  Seems a contradiction to, but perhaps horses and handicappers are systems that don\'t obey the laws I\'m dealing with on a day to day basis. Forgive me, one final question that I\'m embarrassed to ask after all the times I\'ve bought the sheets: one TG point is how many lengths?  I think I remember it\'s two...

[Al Caught Up]

Just my two cents on the 0-2-X. It\'s not a pattern you want to see--or play--when it comes to young 3-yr-olds. It\'s more positively a pattern you can capitalize on in older horses, but healthy colts and fillies shouldn\'t be exhibiting the pattern. In older horses, the likelihood that the horse will run back to the top (or to a secondary top that may be competitive) is solid--I think it\'s a matter almost of tossing the X effort--and the cherry on the \'top\' is the fact that the odds can be really appealing after the X.

[aceriley]

Thanks ACU.  If I may, do you know the answer to my other (stupid) question about how many lengths a point is worth?

[rhagood]

2 at a race distance of 1 1/4 miles:

The Basics
The lower the number the faster the race. On our scale 1 point = ~1 length at 5 furlongs increasingly to 2 lengths at 1 1/4 miles. Each sheet has 4 calendar years going back from right to left. The last race a horse ran would be the uppermost number in the right- most column corresponding to the horse’s age.
5 pounds in weight = 1 point at all distances. The figures are adjusted for weight carried in previous races. If 2 horses run a TG figure of 10 today, a horse in at 115 will beat a horse in at 120 by 1 point, or 1 length at 5f.
Each path out from the rail (1 path) = 1 length of ground loss. Considering all else equal, in a 1 turn race a horse in the 3 path runs 2 lengths better than a horse on the rail.

[aceriley]

Gotcha

[aceriley]

Can\'t wait unitl the race luckily the niece is getting married 4 hours earlier