I know this won't be a popular comment but I am afraid..

[covelj70]

this is great stuff, you\'re the best!

thanks as always

[Silver Charm]

Jellish well said. I do get confused however when people say (not you) they are gonna have to send from the 2 hole to get early position and that\'s supposed to be worse than sending from the 18 or 19 hole to get early position. The horse in the 2 hole isn\'t sending to get early position he is sending to protect his position.

I\'m more worried about the possibility of another Dead CD Rail. If it\'s live and fair then look out!!!

[ajkreider]

In the Derby it hasn\'t happened in at least 10 years.  We talked about this last year, as I recall.

2-4 is a very different matter.

[johnnym]

So why don\'t you just go after the tri and super.. They always pay
Good luck and I hope Farfromover heals well for you.

[boston]

Covel - Checking boxes rarely works in life, and certainly not in handicapping horses.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ajkreider Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Not sure why people who like AP are dvCard
> oiscounting
> > Upstart.  He appears to be in good enough form.
>
> > If you like AP in the 18 hole, doesn\'t Upstart
> > just have to stay on his hip all the way around?
>
> > He will only get hung wide if AP gets hung wide
> -
> > and then you toss them both. He doesn\'t have to
> > worry about Far Right coming over top.
>
>
> Upstart, Firing Line, and even Danzig Moon have
> real shots to win this race. There\'s a couple
> other bombers who can get a piece. This is setting
> up fantastically.  The fear people have of
> Dortmund is mindblowing. This horse wouldn\'t have
> deserved 4-1 in last year\'s weaker Derby IMO, so
> what the hell is everybody afraid of with this
> one? I think people need to spend less time
> reading press clippings and more time studying the
> figures.

Forget price.

Why would Danzig Moon have a better shot at winning than Dortmund??  He just jumped way up to run a figure Dortmund has run 4 times. I think Dortmund is a horse to be dealt with this Saturday. If he doesn\'t fire a big shot I will be shocked. I like him much more than AP.

I\'m with you on Upstart, he clearly is one of the one\'s based on figures.  Firing Line a beautiful forging pattern, never gone back, on figures right there with Dortmund.

I\'m all for tossing the top betting choices, but I\'m not going to dismiss them just because of their price. Nobody is fearing Dortmund as if he is going to stomp this field, but to dismiss him as being a win contender is something I disagree with.  He can definitely win this race.

Carpe Diem was a horse I really liked pre-draw. He can run near the lead or off of it. Certainly fits on numbers. He broke a little tardy in the BC, but his last 2 he broke sharply. I know the pace was sharp in the BC race, perhaps the KD will be too, but he showed he can close and finish in that race.  If he gets out of the gate in good order to maintain his position, and several charge to the front, he can stay right behind the first flight and save ground around the first turn. If JV can work out a trip, no reason this colt can\'t be a big factor.  He certainly came running in the BC Juv.

Still figuring out ticket combos.  Dortmund, CD, and FL will be prominent tho.

[jack72906]

This is pretty much how I feel. I want to play Upstart and/or Frosted so bad, but IMO the draw hurt Upstart and he\'ll likely be caught wide...oh...and the antibiotic thing. He\'s also run 4 straight killers. I love the horse but those are legitimate concerns IMO. As far as Frosted, the throat surgery is a huge question mark. I have yet to read an article and/or post that can convince me otherwise.

It\'s not that Dortmund is the clear standout in the field, he just happens to be the one with a good draw, decent pattern, he likes Churchill, he\'s game, he\'ll get the distance, and he\'s big enough to take the beating that will likely occur in a 20 horse field.

I\'m not going to feel bad about picking a short priced horse as a key if he is the most likely winner. Some will say \"there\'s no value\" in picking him. That\'s silly. This race is nothing but value every year. Maybe not in a win bet, but there is a ton of value in the vertical wagers.

The last few pieces of the puzzle are determining if there is a track bias on Saturday, how the Pletcher horses are running, and what they look like in the post parade.

Good luck everyone

[sekrah]

A meh horse would not have run that race Danzig Moon just ran in the Bluegrass after his TB race. This horse\'s pattern is very live to another 2-3 point move IMO. Throw in the fact he\'s looking sharp this week and could get a ground saving trip, I have to make significant use of him.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A meh horse would not have run that race Danzig
> Moon just ran in the Bluegrass after his TB race.
> This horse\'s pattern is very live to another 2-3
> point move IMO. Throw in the fact he\'s looking
> sharp this week and could get a ground saving
> trip, I have to make significant use of him.


Sek,

Definitely useable underneath.  That was a huge jump from his last race, and 2.5 points from his previous best.  I just think, looking at the pattern, he\'s tough to use on top. If we believe thoro-pattern, a 1 in 3 chance to pair or top. 2 in 3 chance of regressing. I disagree on the win part, not that he can\'t run well enough to hit underneath at a big price.

Just asking, why do you love his pattern??

[sekrah]

Bouncing back so quickly after that TB Derby to set a new top, I think you can almost cross that poor effort out. He\'s only moved 5 pts forward from his two year old number. He\'s eligible for another couple more.

[TGJB]

\"Only\" 5 points?

[sekrah]

Haha yea. It\'s a good move but from when he ran that last 2yo race?  A healthy horse can get 8 from that number around this time of the year.  If you cross out TB Derby, he\'s really not much different than Animal Kingdom\'s line coming in.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Haha yea. It\'s a good move but from when he ran
> that last 2yo race?  A healthy horse can get 8
> from that number around this time of the year.  If
> you cross out TB Derby, he\'s really not much
> different than Animal Kingdom\'s line coming in.


Why should we ignore that race??

[jack72906]

AK also had the first time dirt angle working for him

[TGJB]

There\'s a study in the seminar about exactly this question.

AK was first time dirt.