Derby odds

[kev]

Here\'s my early odds line i think the crowd will make these horses derby day. Help me out if you all think i\'m way off.

SAARLAND           12-1  to 14-1
PERFECT DRIFT      20-1
REQUEST 4 PAROLE   25-1 to 30-1
MEDAGLIA D\'ORO     7-1 to 9-1
EAST GRADES        40-1 and up
WINDARD PASSAGE    50-1 and up
WILD HORSES        50-1 and up
WAR EMBLEM         12-1 to 15-1
PROUD CITIZEN      25-1 to 30-1
PRIVATE EMBLEM     25-1 to 30-1
OCEAN SOUND        50-1 and up
LUSTY LATIN        50-1 and up
JOHANNESBURG       8-1 to 11-1
ITSALLINTHECHASE   50-1 and up
HARLAN\'S HOLIDAY   4-1 to 5-1
ESSENCE OF DUBAI   15-1 to 20-1
CAME HOME          7-1 to 9-1
BUDDHA             4-1 to 5-1
BLUE BURNER        20-1 to 25-1

[tony g]

I\'m a long time lurker and have been following the Derby discussions here for awhile.

For what it\'s worth, I think your line is way too high on Perfect Drift.  Several people here have mentioned him, he is in the top 3 of all the handicappers on the Kentucky Derby page, Steve Haskin mentions him often on the Bloodhorse page.  

I like him, people I talk to at the track like him.  I think he may well replace Saarland as the \"wise guy\" play, which probably won\'t do much for his chances.

I also think you\'ve got Buddah & Came Home too low but not off as much as Perfect Drift.

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

Gotta believe Essence will be lower, perhaps single digits. DRF will have a big write up on Godolphins quest and make a big to do about EOD already winning at the distance. Single digits would not surprise.

Agree with Tony, PD will never be 20-1 and becomes the \"wise guy\" horse. Saarland has been featured on ESPN website with daily activity write ups for 4 months and the \"Ogden Phipps passing good karma\" might get him at single digits also.

We\'ll see in a week!

[kev]

Buddah---(now were talking CD track odds, not NY odds or anywhere else ) Pat Day thats big for the odds right there. Throw in the fact its a gray horse and has a cute name. Mike B has already said hes going to be around 6-1 the crowd out there will bang him down.

Came Home---i like the 9-1 range little bit more to think hes going off longer than that no way, hes 6 out of 7. People will jump on that.

Perfect D---Is a TP horse ( which i might say he is my second choice in here ) Derby odds and payoff\'s are out of whack...and your right maybe i should have wrote 15-1 to 20-1, no lower than 15-1.

Saarland---(my hoss) If mike puts him at 12-1 you could see the odds drift downward a bit no way this horse goes off at under 10-1. If he puts him at 15-1ML the 12-1 range looks better.

              Thanks for responding,

                 Kevin ( louisville,ky)

[tony g]

All of the bets are comingled from everywhere now, so the Pat Day in Kentucky factor won\'t be as strong as it has been in the past.

Your line has Buddah co-favored with Harlan\'s Holiday. I think that Harlan will be the clear favorite and I don\'t have any strong opinions on the next 2 or 3 choices except that I think Perfect D will be no longer than the 4th choice.

[kev]

Oh no my local news guy just picked Saarland to win the Derby so the odds will go under 10-1 now...........Kevin ( louisvlle,ky)

Go Saarland and P.Drift............

[kev]

Wanted to bring this up once again, to see how mike b. made his odds line with mine. I still don\'t know what the odds are.

[MO]

In Post Position order:

Johan - 6-1
Wild horses - 50-1
Perfect Drift- 15-1
Lusty - 30-1
War Emb - 20-1
Ocean - 50-1
Request - 20-1
Essence - 15-1
Meg D\'oro - 6-1
Buddha - 5-1
Private - 20-1
castle - 20-1
Proud Cit - 30-1
HH - 9-2*
Came Home - 5-1
Saarland - 15 -1
Dan - 50-1
Itsall - 50-1
Easy Grades - 20-1
Blue Burner - 30-1

[kev]

thanks

[HP]

Mark,

Saarland is no way in hell going off at 15-1. HP

[tony g]

The line is way unbalanced.  If you convert those odds to %\'s they equal @140% and they should equal @120%.

I think he\'s got the 5 & 6-1\'s too low, Saarland & Perfect Drift too high, and there will be 3 or 4 99-1\'s when all is said and done but we\'ll know for sure in 3 days.

[MO]

Dem is Mikes odds, not mine. More to come.
MO