Pattern question

[Furious Pete]

Let me begin with a case: You have a horse with a really good looking pattern coming into the race, it\'s a devoloping 4 yo, and you feel pretty confident the horse will fire it\'s very best, at least a pairing of the lifetime top and possibly even better. In the race the horse gets caught up in a wicked speed duel, they run their hearts out fighting for the lead with really fast early fractions, the other duellant finally fades back to last but your horse gamely fights on to come in a close 3rd, and the rating is not a new top but it\'s still pretty good, about a pairing of the previous efforts.

Now here\'s the question, what do you guys do with this performance when handicapping the next race? It\'s seems pretty obvious that the horse really was ready for a new top and made a great effort, but what did it take out of the horse? Figure-wise it will look like another pair-pattern ready to produce a new top, but don\'t you have to regard this effort as an effort likely to produce a bounce (regard it as a new top)?

Any thoughts on this would be most welcome!

[TGAB]

You have to examine the effort in context. You postulate a pairing of the lifetime best but when did the initial top occur? How much time elapsed before the pair-up? How did the horse react to the initial top? How big was the initial top? This may have a strong influence on the time it takes to retop--the bigger the top the longer to recover and re-energize.

And what of the pedigree? You mention the horse is a developing 4yo. Is it an early or late developing type? How much has it developed to date? Does it have more room to develop according to the TGI age parameters?

Does the trainer give the horse suffucient time to recover? Some times trainers purposely run their horses through the bounce periods, that is, expecting it to bounce before it re-energizes. The horse is healthy it\'s just going through a form cycle.

Don\'t mean to complicate the case but a perusal of the sheet and pattern should give you a better idea of just how this horse may react next time. Examine the Thoro-Pattern as well, though mechanical, magnitude of the top, time between not distinguished, it nonetheless is based on horses performances.    

Sometimes what appears to be a gut-busting effort is illusory, sometimes.

[bellsbendboy]

Sheet theory at its best. Terrific post.  bbb

[richiebee]

TGAB Wrote:
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> Sometimes what appears to be a gut-busting effort
> is illusory, sometimes.

I am hoping this was the case with Frosted\'s Wood Memorial....

[joemama]

Well they said Frosted was hand ridden throughout the Wood Memorial race...

[FrankD.]

Joe,

6 experienced sheet readers can give you 6 different options in the same race. Interpretation, percentages and or other handicapping angles all factor into one\'s opinion. TGAB\'s statement above is spot on and required reading for newer players to T-graph. There is also a ton of information available on this site in the archives.

The bottom line if you think Frosted did not expend much energy, feel his move was modest comparing it to his 2 year old top? He will be 15-20/1 which is great value for your opinion. Only on this day or BC days would a solid stakes horse with number power be that kind of price.

IMHO he will bounce, he had to run that race to get here and left his best in Ozone Park on Wood day.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[joemama]

Frank,
Appreciate your response.  I liked what I saw after watching the replay of the Wood.  Wide trip and all.  The throat procedure is something to be leary about. Can\'t wait for the race.

[Furious Pete]

Cheers for a great post TGAB, though I sort of know all of that, I guess my question was really if there ever is a situation like this where you guys can treat a figure that was in fact a pair, as a new lifetime top likely to produce a bounce, because of the effort made on the day was so much bigger than the final figure shows? In this case because of a gruelling speed duell that was sure to create a \"non-optimal\" energy distribution.

Would you, in general (because I know you have to do all the studying you\'re suggesting above to inform your decision), handicap this the next time as if that effort was a regular \"pairing\" or would you give it a little more emphasis when you consider the possibility for a bounce?

[sekrah]

I have a bit of Sartin left in me, so I will often adjust a figure if it was not run anywhere near optimum pace/energy usage.

Think of Bodemeister in the Ky Derby.  He had no business moving forward in the Preakness UNLESS you give him proper credit for being on the wicked pace and running a sub-optimal final time (and figure) in the Derby because of improper energy distribution.

Look at Oxbow and Palace Malice\'s sheets. Neither had any business winning one of those TC races unless you give them credit for running a bigger figure in the Derby for attending the hot pace.

[rossi3839]

Sekrah, thanks for your insight. Do you have or can you come up with an objective methodology to adjust the TG figure for the pace?  TIA

[sekrah]

If I had the raw data, I could probably do some real magic with it, but by hand it\'s a lot of work to look at every horse\'s races and variants, and adjust it perfectly. Focusing on the extreme pace situations is really the key. Last race is always the most important one to look at though, and with a race like the Kentucky Derby, there\'s so many horses you really get a good sample to determine whether that early pace was hot or not.

You can just look at a chart like this: https://www.equibase.com/yearbook/Chart.cfm?tk=CD&rd=2013-05-04&rn=11&de=D&cy=USA and see the pace was absolutely brutal and anyone near the top half deserves bonus points.

The adjustments are all pretty subjective.  Did sub-optimal energy usage cost Oxbow and Palace Malice 3 or 4 points? I don\'t know. Here\'s a couple points to take from it:

1. Oxbow finished 6th and was 1 3/4 lengths back at 2f when the horses that finished 1st-5th were an average of 9 3/4 lengths back at 2f.  

2. The effects of him gassing out had little effect on him two weeks later.

I don\'t want to step on anybody\'s toes here, but with hindsight of what they ran in their next race, it\'s perfectly reasonable to believe Oxbow ran 4 pts better in the Derby than the figure he got (pairing up his top), and Palace Malice ran 3 pts better in the Derby (moving forward 1 point). This is just my own theories. Like one said, 6 different, very successful sheet players can look at the same sheets and come up with different horses.

Back to pace, It\'s why the h_pace is on the graph. If you see the h_pace or sl_pace, it\'s time to get to work to figure out whether an adjustment is in order.

[rossi3839]

Sekrah, thank you for time you spent and the details.

[TGJB]

Interesting stuff. I think Christian Hellmers does something similar.

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Interesting stuff. I think Christian Hellmers does
> something similar.


Only he does it while lying in a flotation isolation chamber, burning lotus incense and drinking a gingko smoothie.  Of course, I don\'t know whether he\'s doing that for mental clarity, or for what transpires afterwards.  Regardless, whatever works, and evidently it does for him.  I tried the flotation tank thing but ruined two iPads before someone told me you had to do it face up.

[Furious Pete]

Cheers for your insight Sekrah, it was that kind of input I was looking for and those kind of discussions I love to engage in. I would still love to hear from others how they would interpret such a situation in their handicapping.

(This is a great board, by the way!)