He's a pretty special horse

[Sandreadis]

AP            23.1   47.1   11.1   36.2   2:03

Secretariat   23.1   47.2   11.4   36.1   1:59.2

[P-Dub]

rhagood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Re: Upstart, he had 4 negative numbers lifetime
> going in and 3 in a row (a first?) and to win he
> need 5 which would have been another first. Take
> nothing away from the X race, if he is sound and
> rested with be major player later.
>
> AP would have won easier if not let float out so
> wide turning for home, running against himself at
> that point.  Weight loss etc will be keen to watch
> going into Preakness.

He might not have won at all if FL changes leads

[Leamas57]

You have to believe he won\'t run. He\'s worth more right now on the basis that he stands of good chance of losing the Preakness anyway (due the toll of the effort combined with soundness issues).

Not to discredit the horse: we haven\'t seen a lot of Derbies where the speed held--and this was not a very fast track says moi. I think the variant was at least 15--just a guess though. I can only explain the slower fractions through the variant, just some fast horses holding on over a slower than normal track with half the field having no chance of catching them. I doubt if the four top runners all chose this race to back up.

Leamas

[jerry]

Hello racino half-mile jackpot tracks.

[rhagood]

Gary Stevens said he learned a lot riding him for the first time 2 races back when he made the lead too soon and Dortmund came back.  That his run wasn\'t as long and he needed to time it right.  Well he didn\'t get the chance as he had to ride him hard turning for home to keep his position.  He probably didn\'t change leads because he was tired.

[Flighted Iron]

Mat/upstart/carpe diem/tencender/frosted,etc

Were all cranked to run big in final prep and were way over the top by derby week


Frosted over the top??? Watched the race 3 times,read your post , and went back and watched twice more. Over the top??

[covelj70]

I\'m just going on the figures.

He ran a 2 neg in his last race.

I don\'t know what he ran in Derby but it wasn\'t a 2 neg


He clearly ran the best of the big figure horses and he ran better than I thought he would but he still went backward figures wise

[toppled]

It was nothing compared to what Sunday Silence did in the 1989 Derby.  He zigzagged through the entire stretch, had physical problems leading up to the Preakness & still won that race too.

[beazley]

I would say nearly every horse went backward because they couldn\'t maintain their speed the last 2F over that surface. The winner blew the final turn because he was tired got a dream trip (for a derby) 3W3W, never caught dirt or saw a horse\'s butt in front of him.  Will be interesting to see who runs in the Preakness because I\'ll be playing against AP.

[Michael D.]

You hit the nail on the head, Jim. This is a very, very good horse that didn\'t want to go that far, got hung a bit wide, and won.

When it comes to mile and a quarter racing, however, this is an average bunch at best. The performances from the 2nd and 3rd choices were weak and dreadful.

When I saw that 2:03 pop up, the first thing that came to mind was that a horse from ny who didn\'t make the race would have inhaled this group.

[toppled]

That\'s the game these days-most horses are not bred to go 1 1/4 and if the ones that allegedly are don\'t have the #s going in, they\'re not going to suddenly jump up to big #s and blow by the faster horses.  Years ago if there was any question on a horse\'s ability to get the distance I bounced him from my contenders. These days the sheet #s are more important in determining the contenders and if a horse was fast enough at 1 1/8, he can\'t be dismissed.

[Flighted Iron]

I suppose it\'s how a person interprets \"over the top\". A matter of perspective. Agreed it was not a neg 2. Ground loss calculations will determine whether it\'s a slight off race or a slower pair( imo).

[miff]

AP struck many many times with whip to get by Firing Line, definitely laid his body down for first time.Will be interesting to see how that plays out in Preakness if he gets there.

[TreadHead]

Someone counted 32 (!!) strikes of the whip

[joemama]

After Baffert\'s 2002 Belmont loss with War Emblem he stated that the next time he wind the Kentucky Derby he would just go home.  We\'ll see.