Worst Derby ever

[pizzalove]

Exactly what I feared happened today. Exactly.  Baffert sent Dortmund to the lead and had him back up.  fractions were very poor.  The 62000 claimer in the first race would of won the derby today.  

I wish there was a way to predict the stupid decisions of trainers and jockeys. That would be a real breakthrough.  Wind, Weight, distance, etc... don\'t mean a whole lot when trainers and jocks don\'t see how a track is playing and react.  Obviously you needed to be very near or on the lead today. Why these guys always take a wait and see attitude is beyond me.  I thought Upstart was and excellent TG Pick.  But instead of rushing a little early and getting up there they held him back and he was clearly having trouble with the dirt being kicked in the face.

Also can we stop the talk about the super smooth mover or how incredible this horse is?  He had the race set up perfectly for him and came home the last 4 furlongs in 51 and change.  I also agree that firing line could of won had he switched leads and Frosted ran the best race by far.  Frosted may have put in too much to come back in 2 weeks and be effective.

Ap wont win either of the next two.  I also doubt after checking all the charts that AP ran a 100 Beyer.  This race did not live up to the hype.  

And how about the payouts?  Pathetic.  Unless you bet AP to win and place only or if you played only one exacta you probably had a losing day.

[sekrah]

Agreed.  2:03 flat on a fast track.  This race was a dud.  Special?

[covelj70]

So we shouldn\'t talk about how the horse that won what was billed as the best derby in years moves but we should defend picking the horse that finished in last as a good pick?

Remember, I said on the board before the race that the race had fallen apart because the price horses that looked good on Tgs all trained hurt and the favorites were by far the best looking and best moving horses on the grounds.

I said it wouldn\'t be a popular opinion and indeed one of the first posts was \"I couldn\'t disagree more\"

So we disagree before the race that the race had fallen apart and now we criticize that view after the race as well?

Wow, tough board!

[johnnym]

Sekrah very good picks and posts enjoyed the knowledge

[covelj70]

Sek

You were the one that said \"I couldn\'t disagree more\" when I said the TG fig horses looked bad this week.

I find it pretty obnoxious that you come back after the race and criticize anyone\'s comments.

[sekrah]

Good call. They weren\'t doing well. The qualifying may have had something to do with it. Still doesn\'t mean another ordinary Derby winner deserves to be called \"Special\" like a bunch of people want to do every other year.

It was a slow Derby, period.  There\'s nothing special about that horse.

[covelj70]

I get your point and it\'s fair.

To be clear though, when I say he\'s special it\'s because the horse wants no part of 1 1/4 and he\'s got a quarter crack and he still won the Derby.


Takes a special horse to pull that off.

He may not be special at 1 1/4 but he\'s a special horse.

Also, strictly in TG terms, I think he ran one of the fastest derbies ever given the 3w3w trip.

I\'m guess a 2 neg or better but that\'s just a guess

[johnnym]

Covelj I really enjoyed reading your comments and some made a bearing on my thought process.


Frosted surgery looked like it held,but over all great comments..

[smalltimer]

I can\'t help but think if Materiality got out clean like he usually does then AP might have enjoyed a 4w4w trip.

[covelj70]

Thanks a lot

Frosted definitely ran better than I expected but he still was either an \"off\" \"x\" in this race.

Not sure if it was the distance, being off behind or the throat but he went backwards a few points.

[miff]

Surrounding dirt races will probably be ignored and the fig probably goes negative based on projection.First figure in has derby like TG neg -1.75 for AP.

Last quarter of 26.57 a bit mysterious with nothing making a serious late run.

AP floated very wide off last turn may have something to do with his soundness issues.

[jerry]

Really. You were spot on. A boring race but you can\'t knock the first three finishers without knocking the rest of the field.

[TreadHead]

Did this quickly so apologize for any data errors, but went back 8 years (to make sure I included Big Brown) and I\'m counting 22 horses than ran a negative number at some point prior to the derby.  3 won, 2 finished in the tri, and 17 finished outside the tri.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Pizza, spoken like a true loser.  Sometimes the best horses just win.

[jerry]

Good point. Going back 13 years it\'s 39 negs, 8 in the money with a couple of close 4ths. A few paired their top neg number but still missed the board. Most X\'d.