Worst Derby ever

[moosepalm]

miff Wrote:
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> Surrounding dirt races will probably be ignored
> and the fig probably goes negative based on
> projection.First figure in has derby like TG neg
> -1.75 for AP.
>
> Last quarter of 26.57 a bit mysterious with
> nothing making a serious late run.
>
> AP floated very wide off last turn may have
> something to do with his soundness issues.

It does make one wonder if this great crop of three year olds is actually a great crop of mile and an eighth horses.  That being said, the hyperbole of \"worst Derby ever\" is way off the mark. The three top finishers had conducted themselves professionally in all their major preps, and the fourth place finisher had been well conditioned to reverse his form leading up to this race.  They were just that much better than the rest today, and the winner ran considerably further than any of the others who finished in his zip code.  He\'s a game horse who has a beautiful fluid running style, and if he\'s not built for classic distances, he still had enough in the tank to get it done today.  Respect was earned out there today.

[Chas04]

Bottom like is people are haters if they lose. No monster scores to be made with AP but I wheeled him in multiple P5s, P4s, Supers, Trips, etc everything & won it all times 10 pressing. Keep trying to beat him in the Preakness......lol

[Tavasco]

This is exactly why SoCalMan2 offered inoculations. Hoping I just missed noticing your analysis and picks?

[Topcat]

sekrah Wrote:
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> Agreed.  2:03 flat on a fast track.  This race was
> a dud.  Special?


As feared . . . nobody gunned, and the first pass by the stands was straight out of Charismatic\'s year . . . was holding my breath, praying no one would go down.   An embarrassing pace -- the rough Derby equivalent of the Ozone Park inner in late January.  Given the circumstances, Baffert could stack the deck to suit himself -- and it looks like he did.  This remains a good group, but the steadily-diminishing distance limitations being built into the breed become more and more apparent, annually.  It\'s going to be big balloons when a couple of horses in there actually get a genuine pace which sets them up.

[pizzalove]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> I get your point and it\'s fair.
>
> To be clear though, when I say he\'s special it\'s
> because the horse wants no part of 1 1/4 and he\'s
> got a quarter crack and he still won the Derby.
>
>
> Takes a special horse to pull that off.
>
> He may not be special at 1 1/4 but he\'s a special
> horse.
>
> Also, strictly in TG terms, I think he ran one of
> the fastest derbies ever given the 3w3w trip.
>
> I\'m guess a 2 neg or better but that\'s just a
> guess


I agree with you as well.  I cant be angry with American Pharoah because so many others ran so stupidly.  Im just disappointed because with the fractions every horse in that race could of been on or near the lead after 4 furlongs. Im disappointed because you knew after 4 furlongs that American Pharoah or Dortmund would win the derby.  American pharaoh could indeed be a great horse at shorter distances.  

As for the quarter crack they can very greatly from one to another.  Many have no effect at all but can get worse.  

I cant really speculate on the smooth mover comment.  I have not seen the horse in person.  I remember Lukas bragging how Houston was such a smooth mover.  I tend to count strides to determine which horses are running efficiently.  As for the derby I saw nothing that would lead me to believe his action is superior to all others.  But again if I am on a rail watching a horse work I may think differently.

As for the projected figure I think the real keys on this derby day were the fractions compared to horses that ran earlier(including final times) and of course how the track was playing. Any big negative figure here would also have to be given to the claiming horse in the first race because even though he wasn\'t as wide he ran faster.

If this horse is given a figure that would make him one of the fastest derby horses ever to run in a Derby that would be a joke.  All because he ran 3w3w or two over from 1w1w.  That is insane.  If you were betting Churchill all day and saw the derby performance you could not say this was a fast derby.

Clearly the best horse in the derby field yesterday was Frosted.  I was impressed with his performance. Had he been more aggressive early he could of smelled roses. As for many of the others they should try getting aggressive sometime and making their own luck.  So sad to see another derby gone. And I feel sorry for the exotic players like myself.  To see these payoffs in an 18 horse field is tragic.

[toppled]

Pizza, you really shouldn\'t be complaining-your 4/22 post correctly predicted the pace scenario & you ignored your own correct analysis.  Don\'t blame the horse or the jockeys-you saw what was going to happen a week and a half ago.

Now I did make $ on the Derby (check the inoculation thread for my pre-race post), but the payoffs were small-I have to sign for my $1 superfecta that I spent $180 to hit which sucks.  I\'ll admit 3/4 of my profit was on the future win bet which made it a lot easier for me to not have to take AP\'s odds into consideration on Derby day.  I protected myself against a Dortmund victory which diluted my payoffs in the exotics, but it was insurance because I knew if Pharoah won I was cashing a good win bet.

[FrankD.]

Another spring flower \"the blooming idiot\" pops up here at Derby time.
Get a F \'in life and don\'t come back here until you have something worthwhile to add.

Incredible!!!

[FrankD.]

By the way IDIOT!!!!

Congrats your .50 pick 5 wheel yielded a $5 profit X 10
But all you\'re other wheels were losing props.

[miff]

AP received a 105 Beyer(very generous) after concluding that the track slowed down and it was cooler/windier later in the card. Unfortunately that does not reconcile with the last two dirt races vs the earlier dirt races at same distance.

Adjusting Beyer for ground loss gets you to a TG figure of -2.75 for AP. Agree the slow raw time is puzzling and once again a race at 10f comes up weak on the day/clock and creative license is used.

The trip idiots are all yakking about horses that were compromised but at the end of the day Materiality is the one trip horse out of the race.Closers that had it a bit tough made no impact into a last split of 26.57 so their bad trips are less relevant.

Many going Preakness so far.

[beazley]

If Materiality got Carpe Diem\'s break and trip (big if I know) we may have seen a different winner

[HP]

I thought the slow first 1/2 was the key.  In retrospect the best comment here was from whoever said it would be impossible to figure out what the pace would be and who would send or not send.  I never would have imagined that the whole colony of jockeys would have come out of the gate and collectively said \"let\'s just let them do their thing and watch.\"

[HP]

Except for Stevens.  Aside from that hats off to Johnny Weir for picking he winner.

[beazley]

Thanks and completely agree. Only Materiality has a \"playable\" excuse in next race. Taken completely out of his game at start and looked lost on final turn but then finished with a lot of interest when angled inside for the stretch run.  Now we need to keep quiet about it and hope to get 5-1 or more on him for Preakness.

[TGJB]

History is replete with horses that ran bad in the Derby for no apparent reason and jumped up next time out. You could probably come up with ten just since I\'ve been around, starting with Snow Chief.

[joemama]

Very cleanly run race.  Top 3 horses went all way round track from start to finish and hardly changed positions and finished 1,2,3. # favorites have won since point system has been installed.