Dunno how you can take much away from the winner. He ran wider than the other top 2 and finished better. He was absolutely gassed at the end of that race though. Note how the other two and some others passed him shortly after the wire on the gallop out. I would have to say they got to the bottom of him this time, which makes for an interesting Preakness.
No excuses for Dortmund unless you think the rail was bad. I don\'t think it was. He saved all the ground and set comfortable fractions. I thought he was gone at the top of the lane but he faded. Have to assume he just didn\'t get the distance. Mom was a sprinter, so...
Same thing for Carpe Diem. He had a perfect trip and just didn\'t fire. Maybe the inside post did him in, but I don\'t think so. He has shown in the past that he can sit behind horses, take dirt, switch out, etc. So my thought is that Pletcher did the wrong thing by keeping him at Keenland and not working him hard at Churchill. Don\'t mean to sound arrogant like I\'m second guessing the trainer who should know the horse better than I do. But if you don\'t think the colt can handle the stress of training for the race, why run him in the race itself?
Upstart never was comfortable. I saw him tossing his head around heading into the first turn and he never got into a rhythm. Knew he was toast just like Friesen Fire a few years ago. Was done by the 1/2 mile pole and the jock did the right thing by not asking him. Probably nothing wrong with the colt though. Might make for an interesting play back down the line somewhere. At first glance I would still want no part of him in the Belmont though even with the Belmont winners in his pedigree.
Materiality trip very reminiscent of Curlin\'s trip in the Derby. All things considered he ran really well, better than most would have with his limited amount of experience. He got shuffled way back and had to eat a lot of dirt to come around horses. May prove to be a major player down the line in the late summer. I would think TAP backing off on him now would be the right move. But he seems to know the horse pretty well so if he comes back in one of these next two triple crown races would have to take a close look at him. Would definitely strongly consider him in the Belmont.
There were others that had trouble as well that could rebound and run big next out if in the right spot. Will be curious to see how many of these others actually come back for the Preakness, and how a new shooter like Divining Rod could impact that field. I thought his Lexington was pretty good.
One more thing of note. All things considered, even with the favorites coming in, I still thought the Tri payoff came up a bit light. I was figuring on about $400 for that combo. Most likely means that many people must have keyed AP on top. Pretty sure had he run out the payoffs would have been overlays no matter what else happened. As a consolation, at least the Tri wasn\'t an IRS ticket. So if you had it for a saver you wound up losing some money but didn\'t have to claim the winnings and have taxes withheld too. That\'s always the worst.
I\'m still planning on sticking to the plan and betting with both fists against AP if he comes back in the Preakness. He\'s going to be a huge favorite and they definitely emptied tank.
