As most have noticed, the tri did come back light, but it’s not out of line with expectations based on how the public bets exotics.
Unlike they do in the win pool, where they tend to underbet favorites and overbet longshots, the public tends to overbet favorites and underbet longshots in the exotics. This is not specific to the Derby or to a heavy favorite. It is the case in general with respect to all exotic wagers, both vertical and horizontal.
The computer guys have a formula they’ve put together from academic papers to estimate probablilities/projected payoffs for vertical exotic wagers. It’s not as accurate as the parlay formula used for horizontal wagers (primarily because horses don\'t run second, third or fourth at the same proportional rate as they win), but it works pretty well. It’s based on a discounted Harville approach using Henery coefficients of lambda = 0.8 and ro = 0.6 (don’t ask).
Anyway, using their formula, based on the final win odds the tri projected to pay around $543 ($334 using straight Harville, which is usually less accurate).
Just out of curiosity, I looked at the ex, tri & super payoffs for some of the recent Derbys, including the 2007 edition, to see how the projected payoffs compared with this year’s running. In the results below, the betting choice for each finishing position is shown in parentheses, followed by the exotic payoff and the percentage over/under the actual payoff was compared to the projected payoff.
2015
1: (1)
2: (4) $2 Ex: $72.60 (-10%)
3: (2) $2 Tri: $202.00 (-64%)
4: (5) $2 Sup: $1,268.20 (-78%)
2014
1: (1)
2: (17) $2 Ex: $340.00 (+71%)
3: (3) $2 Tri: $3,424.60 (+58%)
4: (2) $2 Sup: $15,383.80 (-27%)
2013
1: (1)
2: (15) $2 Ex: $981.60 (+173%)
3: (3) $2 Tri: $6,925.60 (+95%)
4: (5) $2 Sup: $57,084.00 (+37%)
2012
1: (9)
2: (1) $2 Ex: $306.60 (+36%)
3: (6) $2 Tri: $3,065.60 (+1%)
4: (13) $2 Sup: $96,092.80 (+57%)
2007
1: (1)
2: (4) $2 Ex: $101.80 (-24%)
3: (2) $2 Tri: $440.00 (-60%)
4: (13) $2 Sup: $29,046.40 (+40%)
Note how all payoffs consisting of purely favorites were light, while combos where a longshot slipped in all paid better than projected. The results are right in line with the public’s tendency to overbet favorites and underbet longshots in the exotics.
And as sekrah noted, the 2007 results were not out of line with this year’s running when you consider the odds – both tris were light by around 60% because of the heavy tilt toward the top betting choices in the field.
Rocky R.
