Oaks and Derby day numbers

[TGJB]

Both days are in ROTW. Derby itself was an 80/20 proposition-- 80% it\'s right the way it is, 20% it should be 2 points slower.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Based on what I read on the other board, you\'re saying there is an 80% chance you got the derby right and a 20% chance they did.....sounds about right! Seriously though, thanks for posting all of the numbers. It\'s great to be able to go back on all of the races and see where my projections were right and try to figure why a bunch were not..Thanks again, Ken

[miff]

Actually, Rags has the derby equal to a TG 1/4 which is slower than all other credible fig makers which have AP in TG neg -2/-3 territory.

The Derby was not easy for any fig maker to deal with when the raw time came up so slow affirming the track slowed....by how much not clear.

[TGJB]

Very little about the track speed that day is clear, except that you have to go by the horses and throw out assumptions about it staying constant. It\'s a textbook example of that.

Seriously, I would love to see what Jake did with the rest of the day. There was a limit how wrong you could get the Derby-- only two ways to go-- but the rest was a different story, especially if you tie yourself to crazy rules.

As you look at our sheets, a reminder of the examples I pointed out the other day-- they had Competitive Edge with a 9 top going in, 6 points slower than Gimme Da Lute, same top as Hillbilly Royalty.

And on Friday they had Covello\'s horse (Power Alert) 11, 10 his last two. His 11 = our zero.

[covelj70]

I would have never bought the horse if I used their numbers in the first place

thank God for TG

I think that\'s the second biggest Derby figure ever behind Big Brown, right?

[Furious Pete]

A tough nut this one without a doubt, having watched Mubtaahij win in Dubai I think that\'s the one figure here that really is troublesome for me.. How can it be that this 8th-place in the Kentucky Derby, beaten 9 and a half lengths despite saving a lot more ground than the winner, be almost as good a race as that victory on the world cup day? Then again the top 5\'s figures and new lines seems reasonable enough.. If it was me making these figures I would probably have it 1 point slower.

[Tavasco]

If I read their #\'s correctly they have Materiality about the same or faster than Dortmund.

In any event Materiality proves he\'s the race horse you believed he was. Plus now he knows how to pass other horses.

[TGJB]

Smarty ran better before and after, worse that day.

[analizethis]

Unusual result for the KD.

4 tops (of 18) and only 3Xs (two, no doubt, quit running).

Even the Oaks had 3 tops and only 1X.

Anything to be made of that?

[TGJB]

The Oaks isn\'t the Derby, no reason 3yos shouldn\'t be running tops in the Spring. Four tops in the Derby is only a little higher than average, and since a top in the studies is defined as MORE than 1 point better, if I paired AP the only new top would be Keen Ice, by 1/4 point.

Of the four horses that ran new tops, I said in my comments that three had a chance to run them. Didn\'t see AP doing it.

[TreadHead]

How can you even ask that question?  Moop beat a bunch of turf bred slugs over in Dubai, he needed to win that race by 20 for it to be impressive.

Frammento could beat a bunch of Beulah Park (RIP) stakes horses by 10 lengths and I\'m sure it would look equally impressive as he completely draws away from them in the stretch.  That doesn\'t mean that he stacks up well against the top 3 year olds.  Visually impressive races need to be taken in context.  The ability to pull away from a group of slugs does not equal star power.

[T Severini]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually, Rags has the derby equal to a TG 1/4
> which is slower than all other credible fig makers
> which have AP in TG neg -2/-3 territory.
>
> The Derby was not easy for any fig maker to deal
> with when the raw time came up so slow affirming
> the track slowed....by how much not clear.


I can\'t put my finger on it, but that Derby doesn\'t feel right. They ran conservative fractions. (Gary Stevens was masterful meting out his speed and would have won had his horse changed leads.)

The leaders came home in 26:57 and Worse. The only horses to look decent late were Frosted, Materiality and Keen Ice and all experienced trouble which left them a whole lot to do on softish fractions.

The last race (13) looked like the track was plenty quick for maidens.

My tentative conclusion is that they did not run fast. They ran tepidly and embarrassed themselves late.

The next one will be a very good betting race.

[sekrah]

To all people who fall in love with the next horse shipping in from Dubai, just give me all the money you were planning on betting on him and I\'ll give you 10% of it back on Derby Day, and you can call yourself a winner.

[smalltimer]

I vaguely remember you liked Upstart.

[T Severini]

Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A tough nut this one without a doubt, having
> watched Mubtaahij win in Dubai I think that\'s the
> one figure here that really is troublesome for
> me.. How can it be that this 8th-place in the
> Kentucky Derby, beaten 9 and a half lengths
> despite saving a lot more ground than the winner,
> be almost as good a race as that victory on the
> world cup day? Then again the top 5\'s figures and
> new lines seems reasonable enough.. If it was me
> making these figures I would probably have it 1
> point slower.


On this comparison the most logical thing to do is remove Mubtaahij from consideration. I believe they finally put real dirt back in over there in Dubai, (Meydan), and the times Mubtaahij ran there in his 1 3/16th races were not inspiring.

The logical thing to do is score the other Derby horses and then calculate his figure off the American horses. I\'m pretty sure that\'s how TGJB\'s guys would do it. Just ignore his Meydan numbers.