Oaks and Derby day numbers

[joemama]

Probably right.  A foreign horse needs to appear to be superior especially considering all that a foreign horse has to do coming over here to compete in this particular race.

[joemama]

I am not even going to guess what part of the \"your half right\" part she was talking about.

[joemama]

Well maybe the first Saturday in June was the real goal here.  BTW lost money on Regal Ransom too and there was another Dubai horse in the same race as I recall.  Lost money on that one too.  Who says you can\'t loose twice in one race.

[miff]

Joe,

Many second string foreign turf horses come over here and embarrass the \"slow\" US turf runners, many with little time to acclimate, a huge disadvantage.

Foreign dirt horses rarely do well here, most are too slow and gambling on slow is a fast way to go broke. Mut will now have his best shot at running his best in the Belmont, he\'s a bit grindy but bred well for the distance, better than any American horse that will compete.Derby was impossible for him, Belmont distance makes him legit 12-1 shot imo as slow not quite as critical going that far, breeding matters more.

Mike

[joemama]

Sounds like Commissioner.  Grinding type bred for the distance.  Will see.

[Flighted Iron]

The \"thank you\" was/is genuine for the Oaks. There was/is a joke there as well.Funny is a matter a taste.

As far as the question re 80/20: I think it was/is a fair question.It\'s not a personal attack.

Thanks,
Flighted iron

[miff]

After review and back and forthing,Beyer raised Private Zone from 95 to 100, still quite a bit slower than TG has it.

[TGJB]

I figured they would change it and my guess is they\'re not done. I know for a fact they read this board. It\'s easier to throw the book away when you know you\'re not out there all alone.

[Leamas57]

I am going on record: Mub hits the tri in the Belmont. I will use him in all three spots.

Leamas

[Gerard]

Projecting out, if AP goes -1 in the Preakness with Dort and FL not far behind, (in the 0 range) all big ifs, would you change the Derby numbers before the Belmont? And if that happens, does it make tougher to go against AP in the Belmont? Latter question to the general board.

[miff]

The Derby figure of TG -3 was a best effort on a day which most fig makers had all over the place.It would be very surprising if the Preakness went anywhere near TG -3.No horse shows any sign of sitting on such a number based on the debilitating derby surface and 2 week turnaround.Preakness figure will not be a strong indicator of how reflective of performance the derby figure was imo.

Evidence of that is seen in that the top 3 derby finishers did not return to the track for 4 days, only walking, then a 1 mile jog and no planned breeze before the race.Baffert left strict instructions as to the handling of AP and Dort. Owner of Dort left the decision to run in Preakness strictly up to Baffert who believes it only fair to race Dort in Preakness if horse is ok.

[Gerard]

Thank you. For clarification, no horse is sitting on a TG -3, or no horse is even sitting on a TG -1?

[miff]

That\'s very subjective but the returning derby horses do not appear to be sitting on a TG -3 and the new shooters are a little slow.

Some decent opinions out there believe that AP will benefit from finally getting into and winning a battle. Given AP\'s soundness issues and overall physicality, I\'m not of that persuasion. Have no real opinion on how AP will perform but he affirmed my original opinion that he\'s fastest.

Preakness could easily be a TG -1.

[toppled]

I\'m not surprised about no breeze for AP since leading up to the Derby he took 15 days from each of his 2 races to have a workout.

I can\'t see another -3 for one big reason-he\'s not going to start in post 16 and have a wide trip all the way around.  He could run a race more efficiently in the Preakness & appear to go backwards when he really isn\'t.  If he does that & gets in front by a comfortable margin he\'s going to be geared down like he was in the Ark Derby, where his -1 geared down was indicative that -3 was within his range.  Then the most important thing going into the Belmont will be how he looks and how he works out around June 1st.