Early Derby Analysis

[twoshoes]

Ctc,
Thanks for the input. I\'m not quite sure what to make of his pattern but he has kept the right kind of company and he\'s probably fast enough on the right day. I\'ve spent much of my time looking for some value that can comfortably lay close to the front that also have a quick enough turn of foot to get involved as the leaders hit. The way I see this I don\'t want anyone coming from too far out of it.

[HP]

Limehouse was one of the first horses I tossed.

Limehouse is running in the 3-4 range. There are at least a DOZEN horses in this race that have run faster, and quite a few of them will be \"close to the pace and have a quick turn of foot.\"

If you think Limehouse is going to make a new top in the Derby stretching out off his Blue Grass fade, I guess that\'s a matter of opinion.  

There are horses in here that are FAST that are going to be 25-1! I wish I could book bets on Limehouse (along with St. Averil and a few others). I figure the main thing he can accomplish is getting in the way of some of the shorter priced closers who are trying to get by him.

If there was any justice, Limehouse would drop out so Eddington, a horse with a much more realistic shot, could get in. There\'s still time. HP

[twoshoes]

\"There are at least a DOZEN horses in this race that have run faster, and quite a few of them will be \"close to the pace and have a quick turn of foot.\"

Name them. I\'m open to suggestions. I\'m trying to figure out if the 3-4 range is what to expect or if he\'ll get back to the top in February and frankly there are only 5 or 6 faster than that.

[HP]

Just to be clear, Limehouse has run two routes this year (his last two races), and both were in the 3-4 range. I vaguely remember the race you are referring to in February, which I think was under a mile (I don\'t have the sheets in front of me). Even if you are correct, there are ONLY 5 or 6 faster than that February sprint?  

These have all done better than 3 running over a mile (something Limehouse has not done).

Quinton\'s Gold Rush
The Cliff\'s Edge
Tapit
Lion Heart
Pollard\'s Vision
Minister Eric
Imperialism
Pro Prado
Songofthesword
Master David (ran a 2 as a 2yo)
Borrego
Friend\'s Lake
Read the Footnotes
St. Averil

If you are looking for him to get back to the February race going a mile and a quarter, aren\'t you concerned that he hasn\'t been able to do that going two turns, when ALL of these horses have already done it?

You can have him. Good luck. HP

[RICH]

Borrego- shows a pair of tops, only developed 3pts from 2yr top, sire shows 5pts of development, in addition the pair-up often leads to a new top. LIVE HORSE.

Pollards vision- nice line, still some room to develop, superior mudder, hoping for one more effort.

Pro Prado- like the line, and the spacing and the odds.

Three longshots, will be well placed, all are fast enough, especially with a 1-2 pt move fowards

[Michael D.]

that\'s why i have not liked the horse. looks to have trouble in the stretch. but joe made a good point in that both TG and SH both faded in the stretch in the blue grass and came back to win the derby at big odds. i believe sea hero never ran a decent race longer than 1m before the derby. a major fade job is possible for limehouse i guess, but so is a minor fade job, where he comes in third or fourth. tough call for me.

[twoshoes]

It was 7/8. I appreciate where you\'re coming from and sure I\'m concerned about that. I guess I don\'t know if the 3-4\'s are the best he\'s capable of at a route or if the February race knocked him out a little. As I noted earlier, I\'m just having a second look at him and some others. He came to mind because I think he\'ll sit the type of trip I\'m loking for in here.
Thanks for your thoughts.

[HP]

Regarding Pro Prado, I\'ve never seen a three year old run FOUR big ones in a row (although I\'ve gotten burned plenty by 3yos that have run that THIRD big one). Big price, big headache.

Thunder Gulch just had a super pattern coming into the Derby. A pair of threes, a two point regression... At 25-1 it was almost too good to be true, especially considering that I think the only horse that had done better than those threes going in was Talkin\' Man, who figured to back up big time off an isolated top. In retrospect it was probably the best bet I\'ve ever seen.

As for Sea Hero, Michael is right, but if you look at the \"Past Derby Winners\" file that TG usually includes with the later versions of the Derby sheets, I think he was just a fluke who liked the slop when the other didn\'t.

The interesting thing about Sea Hero is that he is also a horse that won the Derby with a new top. That used to happen a lot more, and has DEFINITELY been happening less over the past few (five) years... HP

[pgsheets]

HP,

Do the 4 straight efforts that War Emblem ran from his Alw1 win through the Preakness not count ?

[HP]

Actually they count. In his case I got burned by leaving him out of the Derby, which was his THIRD big one in a row.

What am I, an encyclopedia? You got me. HP

[pgsheets]

I do believe Sea Hero is the only horse to win the Derby without previously breaking through his 2 yr. old top.

In addition, Swale won the Derby off the biggest pre-Derby prep regression of any horse in \'recent\' Derby history.

This year\'s combined version of the two is Birdstone.

Finally, Birstone looks like an adulterated version of a 4yr. old recovery line that Friedman used to tout and has made me money.

Picking Birdstone goes against everything I\'ve learned over the past 20 + years.
 
On that note, if an Elusive Quality wins off what I\'m hearing is a classic 0-2 pattern,  going 10 panels against the best,  then the end result is the same.  All the data from the past is irrelevant.

If I have to watch Zito point to heavens and exclaim,  \"I love everyone\",  it might as well be with the horse everyone,  including me,  claims should not be here.
 
Zito Zito 1-2 and 1-3 in tri\'s and 1-4 in supers.

[pgsheets]

and I left him out of the Preakness because it would be 4.

[jeffbonds]

I cashed Sea Hero (and the ex & tri) because I saw him get shut off at the rail full of run in the Bluegrass- the same move that won the KD. Bless my sorry eyesight!

[MO]

You and me both! I was working at The Downs at Albuquerque that day when they did not have comingled pools. Sea Hero paid $36.40 and I had my last $200 on him. I authored the tip sheet there and had him picked on top. Cha Ching!!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I had him also on the troubled Bluegrass trip and knowing Mack Miller probably had his best race planned next.

Still, he appeared on handicap accomplishments to be one of the more mediocre Derby winners I can recall. He did go on and win the Travers. He won the Champagne as a 2yr old. Miller just had a knack for getting him to peak on the big days.

He missed the fall handicap racing in New York both his 3 and 4 year old year. I suspect he was a little ouchy because Miller attempted to make a Turf horse out of him as a four year old.

http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/derbywinners.pdf