First to be clear, none of this is anything I have heard from anyone, these are just my thoughts so please everyone take that into consideration when thinking about this. I could be way off as it\'s just a theory.
I think Materiality had a minor muscle injury in his hind end for the Derby
I think the injury occurred when the horse starting training over the CD surface. It is VERY common for horses to have muscle soreness/pulls/strains, etc when switching surfaces. This is why trainers typically give horses a few easy jog days when they first ship to a new track to allow the horse to acclimate. The Palm Beach Downs surface is very different from the CD surface and therefore a horse is using some different muscles when they go onto a new surface. When you are shipping into CD close to the Derby, you don\'t have time to give the horse a few easy jog days. It\'s why I would either ship a few weeks out or right on top of the race but I wouldn\'t ship 10 days out.
Why do I think the horse had a pulled hind end muscle?
There was clearly something going on with the horse on Derby week. He got hot in the paddock and at the gate in the morning (which he didn\'t typically do down in Florida) and he galloped on his wrong lead the first time around the track several times Derby week (another thing he never did before Derby week). Importantly, like any athlete, with muscle tightness or a mild muscle strain, you can warm up out of it. He did that the second time around in his gallops Derby week (as he was back on the proper lead the second time around) and I think he did it during the race itself. The muscle that is bugging him loosens up, adrenaline gets pumping so you don\'t feel it as much, etc.
A muscle issue in his back end would also explain why he broke poorly. Most of the time when a horse breaks poorly, it\'s because they have an issue in their hind end (i.e. the muscle they use to push off out of the gate).
The other thing about a back end muscle issue (maybe gluteal soreness?) is that you can\'t legally treat it so close to the race.
So, where does all of this leave us?
I think this horse could be super live for the Belmont.
I loved him prior to what I saw during Derby week training. It was obvious there was something wrong which is why I got off him but if I have put the pieces together correctly here (huge if), then the muscle issue should be cleared up by the time of the Belmont and he has that huge fig to run back to.
He also has the grinding style that you want out of your Belmont horse and I don\'t think the distance will be any issue at all
Would love thoughts on this if anyone has any.
