Snorting

[boston]

Does snorting vs non-snorting mean anything?

American Pharoah and Dortmund train without incident again at CD

Boy, they sure don\'t waste any time. Ky. Derby winner AMERICAN PHAROAH and his Bob Baffert stablemate DORTMUND were among the first on the track here this a.m. following the regular 8:30 harrow break, and they went through their rounds with no frills nor delays.

AMERICAN PHAROAH, with Jorge Alverez up, jogged over to the finish wire and stood there no longer than 30 seconds before turning around and starting his gallop. He went around there deliberately and at a normal pace while audibly snorting as he came down the stretch for the only time. Alverez kept him at the same clip over to the six-furlong pole, where he began easing him up, finally pulling up around the 5-furlong pole. They turned right around and walked off the 5.5-furlong gap back toward their Barn 33 headquarters. It was all over in a little more than 5 minutes.

Same for Dortmund and exercise rider Dana Barnes (without the snorting), who trailed American Pharoah by only a minute or so, doing all the same things in galloping 1 1/4 miles.

[Rich Curtis]

\"Does snorting vs non-snorting mean anything?\"

Only a non-snorter would think to ask such a question.

[Rick B.]

boston Wrote:
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> Does snorting vs non-snorting mean anything?

Probably about the same as a horse having colic a
week ago, or getting one pound off due to rider variance.

My opinion is, don\'t fall into the TMI trap -- we have
probably won and lost hundreds of races on snorters,
cribbers, quitters and spitters...and didn\'t even know of
their affliction.

This is why PRICE is so important: if you only bet overlays,
you give yourself a chance to be wrong a few more times and
still come out ahead. If you are not getting value, yes, you
need to know that your horse had a pimple on his ass last Tuesday.

[miff]

Gambling the game 50 years,have never heard an overlay/underlay/value correctly defined.

Certain talking heads often say (before race) that a horse is an underlay, the horses whistles and they come back on and say they still believe the horse was an underlay...Brilliant!

[Boscar Obarra]

You never know, many of the overlays may come when others are aware of a  problem you aren\'t. Some may even win.

[miff]

Not talking inside \"knocks\" only known to a few. There are players gambling on overlays that others would book at higher odds

[T Severini]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> You never know, many of the overlays may come when
> others are aware of a  problem you aren\'t. Some
> may even win.


The thing that puzzles me in this \"overlay\" discussion, is that the thread involves AP and snorting. He\'s going to be 3-5 or thereabouts, those are interesting odds for an \"underlay\" even if he does \"sizzle\" his next race.

I don\'t know what the snorting means for sure, but assuming its a way of expelling air I\'d want to know if he\'s snorted before. If not, I\'d consider that significant.

You have to read between the lines some but I\'m not sensing a horse full of energy from this assistant\'s statements:

They can get a little quiet

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
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> Certain talking heads often say (before race) that
> a horse is an underlay, the horses whistles and
> they come back on and say they still believe the
> horse was an underlay...Brilliant!

A horse can win at underlaid odds. Happens every day.

\"Heads\" might win the next 20 flips, but at 3/5on it\'s
a bad bet (underlay).

Don\'t overthink it.

[miff]

I\'ll bite, define underlay Rick

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
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> I\'ll bite, define underlay Rick

Odds that represent less than fair value for the risk involved
are underlaid odds.

Example: Chicago Cubs to win WS @ 5-1...a dumb bet, even if they
do win it all this year.

If you are part of the \"any winner = a good bet\" crowd, you will
probably not agree with any of this.

[miff]

Rick,

Just busting. Underlay/overlay/value are nothing more than opinion when you get down to it. It it also the reason most sharp bookmakers live well.


Best

Mike

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
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> Rick,
>
> Just busting. Underlay/overlay/value are nothing
> more than opinion when you get down to it. It it
> also the reason most sharp bookmakers live well.
>
>
> Best
>
> Mike

Mike,  

No problem with banter, but I would opine that
sharp bookmakers live well because their customers
know they should wait for value plays but don\'t
have the discipline to do so, and bet on any old
sh*t just to have action.

No matter what opinion(s) we might have about value,
I think we can agree that a guy who always gets the
worst of it, price-wise, is always going to lose
over the long term.

Rick