Ummm...

[Rich Curtis]

\"Not sure why you want to pick a fight on this.\"

Yeah, those two questions I asked you were quite an assault.

[big18741]

Seven weeks rest he runs a 1
Six weeks rest he pairs the 1

Six weeks -1.5 in the race where it made sense to like him off the pairs and timing(I don\'t have much sense-didn\'t like him)at 10-1.

Now off a big effort while bearing out and only two weeks as the second choice no thanks.I can only play him to go backwards here.

[sekrah]

I see zero reason why Firing Line can\'t run a big race on Saturday.  Zero.  His spacing into the Derby is an ADVANTAGE for a quick turnaround, not a disadvantage. This horse should be fresher than AP and Dortmund.

[ringato3]

Big,

First of all, I don\'t think he is second choice.   Dortmund will be, but that is splitting hairs.

So, which horse do u want off the two weeks rest?   The bar shoe wearing, late start to the campaign, hit 32 times, 60 cents on the dollar AP?

Or the flatlining dortmund, who hasn\'t run better than a 1 and will be same or shorter price than firing line?

Or u want to take a stab on a slow newcomer?  

I come from the other board, where AP\'s sheet frankly looks better, coming in pairing up.    And nobody wants him there.   Here, where he looks potential bounce to the moon, all kinds of posts about looking for value around him, because he will win.   Lining up for 3/5.    

Don\'t get it.

Oh well.   That\'s racing

Rob

[FrankD.]

That\'s why 6 different sheet readers can come up with 6 different opinions!

I didn\'t like Firing Line for the Derby; he ran his A game race IMHO and horses who always just seem to get beat seem to often find a reason to get beat? Granted this is a classy horse with a healthy pattern BUT the not changing leads really turns me off him. Add in the fact that he will be 7/2 or 4/1 as opposed to his Derby price gets a no thank you here.

I\'ve expressed my opinion on AP believing he is on fumes after the Derby.

Dortmund hasn\'t bounced, one could say he also hasn\'t run fast enough either?
However: I believe of the 3 front runners in the Derby he took the worst of it.
He set the pace comfortable or not, was the \"most inside\" no X on Derby day but to my eyes the outside paths were better.

Someone earlier posted about not taking a negative number to win the Preakness and I can see a zero or even a 1 getting the job done here.

TGJB re thinking the Tampa Derby may soften Danzig Moon\'s high number although it was still a a big X in my mind. Lot\'s of really good horses have run off numbers at that track over the years, a lot like Churchill in that respect?

Anyway without a big field not much drama to the draw, AP can win for sure and would have to include him in horizontals as a saver \"Smarty Jones\" but I\'m leaning on pressing Danzig Moon and Dortmund on top and making that exacta and maybe 1,2 and 1,3 in tris and supers. Definitely not a great race to get too involved with IMHO.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

With no real speed in Preakness and Dortmund supposedly not going to front(better w/target) could shape up as AP and FL flanking each other up front.Seems the positional winner of the draw will be the one posted outside the other 2 main rivals.

Draw could be meaningful re strategy for Stevens, Espinoza, Garcia.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

I have to defer to my eyes as opposed to pace or performance figs for AP & FL.
A completely gut wrenching effort for both of them on a very Heavy race track, I can see a BIG clunker for one or both of them on Saturday.

We\'ll see,

Frank D.

[ringato3]

Frank D

Just curious.  If firing line had been 2-1 in the derby and all other factors equal, would u now like him at 4-1?

I am asking not to be a smart ass, as I have heard many people say things like what u said.  But I don\'t understand why does it matter what odds the horse was in the previous race.   What are the odds today and what chance does he have today.   If he was 99-1 in the derby wouldn\'t matter to me as far as betting the preakness.

Rob

[sekrah]

I thought Firing Line looked fabulous galloping past the line in the Derby.  Looked like he could have ticked off another 2f in sub-27 which would have been amazing that day.  Pharaoh looked done.

[FrankD.]

Rob,

Did not like him at 2, 10, 15 or 50/1. IMHO he was very suspect to get the distance and he had 2 chances previously to prevail over Dortmund and could not get the job done. His failure to change leads in the lane really has my concern to a hidden physical issue.

My Derby tri and super plays had only AP and Dortmund 1,2 & 1,3 I did not use FL or Frosted in either sequence.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

Reasonable to think AP/FL could implode, tough read but both looking well this week in training which can be deceiving.

See a real possibility of those two up front controlling until crunch time, late.Not a great betting race vertically but a very interesting race for me as far as tactics go.


Mike

[Strike]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Frank,
>
> Reasonable to think AP/FL could implode, tough
> read but both looking well this week in training
> which can be deceiving.
>
> See a real possibility of those two up front
> controlling until crunch time, late.Not a great
> betting race vertically but a very interesting
> race for me as far as tactics go.
>
>
> Mike

As Frank has mentioned, FL did not change leads in the stretch. The question is why -- tired, slight injury, still learning, other reason? I think if he did switch, he possibly (probably) would have won. I don\'t think FL would be running if he had a problem so I am ruling that out.

I expect he will improve -- pattern is good, race is shorter, and I expect him to change leads this time. Espinoza shut AP down right after the wire. Not a good betting race but one in which I will try to beat a heavy favorite.

[mjellish]

I have to say that one thing I think is interesting about this Preakness, whether you regard it as a good betting race or not, is how the jockey tactics may influence the race.  None of the top three need the lead, but they all seem comfortable assuming it if it is given to them easily.  Would guess that any one of the connections, if given the choice, would prefer a garden spot trip in the pocket while letting the other two duel eye to eye through moderately fast fractions for the lead.  But what happens if no one sends?  Bodhisattva and Divining Rod have enough early lick to send if they want to.

I noticed how Stevens deliberately took FL out wide on the second turn in the KY Derby to keep him away from looking Dortmund in the eye.  That wound up costing some ground and floating AP wide.  But it was also a pretty brilliant piece of riding strategy IMO because I think Dortmund ran better when he was right next to his competition in the stretch, and Stevens knew it.  Some colts are like that.  Silver Charm was like that.  Touch Gold got the better of him by employing similar tactics.  But if they had gotten the chance to race against each other two weeks later I don\'t think Stevens on Charm would have let them get away with that again.  And I don\'t think Garcia will make the same mistake again on Dortmund.  Would think he would want a target to run at.  Maybe they both let AP go for the lead?

Interesting dynamic regardless. A few other thoughts.

Very tough race to make a confident play IMO.

As a rule, I don\'t like colts who have not had a recent history of lead change problems who suddenly seem to develop them. Stevens has flat out said he guarantees FL will change leads in Preakness but has not offered up a reason as to why he didn\'t in Louisville.  FL also leaned out badly on AP in deep stretch.  And I did not think he or the other top two galloped out well at all.  They all looked gassed to me.

No clue what to make of Dortmund Colic thing.  I heard about that two days prior to Derby but was told it was minor and nothing to worry about.  You never know though.  I think being on the rail the whole trip was worse, but who knows.  He may not want the distance, which is hard to believe given that stride of his.  And if you assume the colic thing hurt him, he\'s not necessarily going to rebound here.  Racing in the derby may have knocked him out entirely.  So to me, you either say the rail was dead and Dort got the worst of it or you can\'t play him to turn the tables here.

Playing AP to bounce would seem to be the play, but it\'s kind of tricky because he hasn\'t bounced yet and doesn\'t have to here, but he\'s probably going off at close to 1/2 odds.

To be honest, I think I will be on the fence on how, or even if, to play this one until I see them in the paddock.  Which means the horizontals are probably out unless I really like something in one of the undercards and feel I can spread or at least be in a position to hedge in the Preakness.

Super Saver looked terrible in the Preakness Paddock.  

Man, I want to play AP to bounce...

[Strike]

I agree with all of this. Great observations. 3/5 shots are supposed to be sure things. AP isn\'t but still hard to dismiss (but I will) because he will be 3/5.

[T Severini]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have to say that one thing I think is
> interesting about this Preakness, whether you
> regard it as a good betting race or not, is how
> the jockey tactics may influence the race.  None
> of the top three need the lead, but they all seem
> comfortable assuming it if it is given to them
> easily.  Would guess that any one of the
> connections, if given the choice, would prefer a
> garden spot trip in the pocket while letting the
> other two duel eye to eye through moderately fast
> fractions for the lead.  But what happens if no
> one sends?  Bodhisattva and Divining Rod have
> enough early lick to send if they want to.
>
> I noticed how Stevens deliberately took FL out
> wide on the second turn in the KY Derby to keep
> him away from looking Dortmund in the eye.  That
> wound up costing some ground and floating AP wide.
>  But it was also a pretty brilliant piece of
> riding strategy IMO because I think Dortmund ran
> better when he was right next to his competition
> in the stretch, and Stevens knew it.  Some colts
> are like that.  Silver Charm was like that.  Touch
> Gold got the better of him by employing similar
> tactics.  But if they had gotten the chance to
> race against each other two weeks later I don\'t
> think Stevens on Charm would have let them get
> away with that again.  And I don\'t think Garcia
> will make the same mistake again on Dortmund.
> Would think he would want a target to run at.
> Maybe they both let AP go for the lead?
>
> Interesting dynamic regardless. A few other
> thoughts.
>
> Very tough race to make a confident play IMO.
>
> As a rule, I don\'t like colts who have not had a
> recent history of lead change problems who
> suddenly seem to develop them. Stevens has flat
> out said he guarantees FL will change leads in
> Preakness but has not offered up a reason as to
> why he didn\'t in Louisville.  FL also leaned out
> badly on AP in deep stretch.  And I did not think
> he or the other top two galloped out well at all.
> They all looked gassed to me.


>
> No clue what to make of Dortmund Colic thing.  I
> heard about that two days prior to Derby but was
> told it was minor and nothing to worry about.  You
> never know though.  I think being on the rail the
> whole trip was worse, but who knows.  He may not
> want the distance, which is hard to believe given
> that stride of his.  And if you assume the colic
> thing hurt him, he\'s not necessarily going to
> rebound here.  Racing in the derby may have
> knocked him out entirely.  So to me, you either
> say the rail was dead and Dort got the worst of it
> or you can\'t play him to turn the tables here.
>
> Playing AP to bounce would seem to be the play,
> but it\'s kind of tricky because he hasn\'t bounced
> yet and doesn\'t have to here, but he\'s probably
> going off at close to 1/2 odds.
>
> To be honest, I think I will be on the fence on
> how, or even if, to play this one until I see them
> in the paddock.  Which means the horizontals are
> probably out unless I really like something in one
> of the undercards and feel I can spread or at
> least be in a position to hedge in the Preakness.
>
> Super Saver looked terrible in the Preakness
> Paddock.  
>
> Man, I want to play AP to bounce...


Felt the same way, the top three were all cooked. In Germany I think they call it Sauer Bratten. Still only Frosted could close appreciably, due to a little trouble and the soft fractions.

Don\'t currently like the way this race is setting up for betting, but like you will look at them and decide late if there is anything to be done.