Ummm...

[TGJB]

There\'s been a lot of talk about pretty much nothing here recently, but a surprising lack of discussion of two words that really matter. The first one is Firing.

[magicnight]

His sheet is quite similar to AP\'s, with a top that wins if he pairs and AP goes back a couple. And he will be what ... 7/2 versus AP\'s 3/5?

[ringato3]

Not sure there are any other two words you are thinking of besides \"firing line\", but I am going to assume not.

Beautiful progressive line.  Never gone backwards.  Two year old top of 3, beautiful spacing this year, 6 weeks into the Derby, should be relatively fresh, it was a 2 point new top, so maybe he can pair, while AP seems more likely to bounce for a number of reasons (late start, rushed campaign, foot problems, faster figure in the Derby), while Dortmund is flatlining a bit.  harder to forecast him running the new top he would likely need, unless you want to give him a pass for the colic.

Firing Line is all quality.  He was better than Dortmund the 1st time they raced, but Dortmund tripped out, and I could argue he was better than Dortmund the second time they met, albeit a tougher argument. (Stevens moved early and got outmuscled late?)

Firing Line at 4-1 or so would seem to be the only sensible bet to make from a pattern, numbers, etc perspective.

Just one point that I would put in the intangible bracket.  I have watched the Derby replay 20 times.  Isolating the top 3 finishers a few times each.  It is clear to me that of the top 3 finishers, AP was running least comfortably of them through the first mile.  Espinoza niggled on him twice or so to keep up.  Firing Line was running the smoothest of all, and as somebody who bet on him, I thought he was a winner.  Stevens looked like he felt he could take Dortmund any time he wanted to.  Even turning for home he still looked best to me.  But then the last portion of the race he emptied out.  You could analyze that two ways.  Glass half full would be that he was caught in a Baffert sandwich.  HAd to put away the undefeated Dortmund and then try and hold off AP, the wonder-horse.  He worked harder than either one.  (despite the wider trip of AP, he got a comfortable wide trip).  The Glass half empty would be that Firing Line is 1 1/8 horse at best and he just ran out of breeding the end of the race, which is why he got beat.  

At 4-1, with Materiality out, Firing Line is still the bet, but only because no other good bet exists.

Rob

[SoCalMan2]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure there are any other two words you are
> thinking of besides \"firing line\", but I am going
> to assume not.
>
> Beautiful progressive line.  Never gone backwards.
>  Two year old top of 3, beautiful spacing this
> year, 6 weeks into the Derby, should be relatively
> fresh, it was a 2 point new top, so maybe he can
> pair, while AP seems more likely to bounce for a
> number of reasons (late start, rushed campaign,
> foot problems, faster figure in the Derby), while
> Dortmund is flatlining a bit.  harder to forecast
> him running the new top he would likely need,
> unless you want to give him a pass for the colic.
>
>
> Firing Line is all quality.  He was better than
> Dortmund the 1st time they raced, but Dortmund
> tripped out, and I could argue he was better than
> Dortmund the second time they met, albeit a
> tougher argument. (Stevens moved early and got
> outmuscled late?)
>
> Firing Line at 4-1 or so would seem to be the only
> sensible bet to make from a pattern, numbers, etc
> perspective.
>
> Just one point that I would put in the intangible
> bracket.  I have watched the Derby replay 20
> times.  Isolating the top 3 finishers a few times
> each.  It is clear to me that of the top 3
> finishers, AP was running least comfortably of
> them through the first mile.  Espinoza niggled on
> him twice or so to keep up.  Firing Line was
> running the smoothest of all, and as somebody who
> bet on him, I thought he was a winner.  Stevens
> looked like he felt he could take Dortmund any
> time he wanted to.  Even turning for home he still
> looked best to me.  But then the last portion of
> the race he emptied out.  You could analyze that
> two ways.  Glass half full would be that he was
> caught in a Baffert sandwich.  HAd to put away the
> undefeated Dortmund and then try and hold off AP,
> the wonder-horse.  He worked harder than either
> one.  (despite the wider trip of AP, he got a
> comfortable wide trip).  The Glass half empty
> would be that Firing Line is 1 1/8 horse at best
> and he just ran out of breeding the end of the
> race, which is why he got beat.  
>
> At 4-1, with Materiality out, Firing Line is still
> the bet, but only because no other good bet
> exists.
>
> Rob

Assuming your glass is half empty is true, isn\'t the cut back in distance a plus?  Seems to me this race is the be all end all for this horse.  If your analysis about stamina is correct, can\'t imagine he could be that strong for the Belmont.  Seems best to fire his bullet here and then go to the Haskell.  he seems like the type of horse that always wins the Haskell.  of course, Baffert sort of owns that race, but that could make things interesting.

[miff]

Firing Line was trained to the nines for the derby,bravely fired his best shot.Horses running big figs,off longish spacing(6 weeks),then coming back short rest,not my cup of tea.His failure to change leads the entire stretch may signal stressing in that area where he was shock waved, twice.

FL reportedly looks great out of derby,energetic gallops, came back to the track a day or so faster than AP and Dortmund.Is FL hiding the dreaded \"silent bounce\"? Was the Derby a gut wrencher for FL?...let you know as they approach the far turn.

[ringato3]

SoCalMan2,

I think the cutback helps.  For sure.  And I will/would love him for the Haskell.

I think Firing Line is all class. That said, he has lost three heartbreakers in a row.  

Wouldn\'t play Firing Line the Belmont, no matter how he runs Saturday.  The \"relatively fresh\" statement would no longer be true, he isn\'t bred for it and doesn\'t look like one who will get better as they go longer.  And would be facing at least two that are faster at their tops (Materiality and Frosted).

He should be 4-1 and if the Susans/Preakness double with Baffert filly Luminance approaches $20, it will be \"all in\" for me.

Rob

[ringato3]

Agree with your point.  which is why Materiality at 8-1 was more interesting to me.  

But you can only play with the cards you are dealt, or not play at all.

Me things trip/position/wide all factored in, Firing Line ran as well as AP in the Derby.  And think AP slightly more likely to go backwards because of late start to campaign, foot problems, visually tougher race, and much worse spacing related to late start.  Even if I make them equal to bounce, one bet pays $4 for $1 the other 60 cents for a dollar, 1/6th as much.  

Rob

[Tavasco]

Half Full - Bet FL to win

Half Empty - Toss FL from contention

No overlay = No Bet

Dortmund Firing looks to be a better price.

Plus or minus twenty contenders @ CD. Four or Five @ Pim. (not counting the slugs) the derby connections believe the three amigos plus one optimist are simple too good at this point. I don\'t argue with stop signs. But I do know people who will!

Ho Ummm

[jbelfior]

Seriously doubt you will get 4-1 on Firing Line on Saturday with the field that\'s lining up. The Maryland horses will not take much money, ditto the Stewart horse if he goes. They\'re taking a stab with Divining Rod IMO but perhaps he takes some sentimental money because of the Barbaro team. As for Danzig Moon, well perhaps that\'s where your value comes from. I think he can be there with the right ride. Thought he was a bit too close in the Derby.  
 
I agree with Miff. I loved FL in the Derby. Ran his eyeballs out and Callaghan had him ready to fire his A race.The failure to change leads in the lane cost him the race and is not something I want to follow up with especially at 3-1 or less odds (yes, many folks out there that actually believe the 1/16th of a mile shorter will get him the Black-Eyed Susans).

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Agastache]

Anybody concerned about Firing Line\'s unwillingness to switch leads down the stretch of the Derby?  I think its very possible that the horse could be sporting a small injury of some sort, perhaps a knee chip?

If you are ok with the lack of lead change, then Firing Line is your Preakness key.

[Rich Curtis]

\"The Glass half empty would be that Firing Line is 1 1/8 horse at best and he just ran out of breeding the end of the race, which is why he got beat.\"

How big of a top did Firing Line need to run at 10F to prove that 9F is not his limit?

Also: In the Derby, if Stevens had taken him back farther early, and then closed late to finish in exactly the same place and earn exactly the same figure, would that have proven that he doesn\'t hate 10F?

[P-Dub]

I don\'t like the refusal to change leads either.  I was all in with FL last week.

Shaping up to be a non-betting race for me. Plenty of undercard races to play. I\'m hoping AP wins, setting up the excitement for another TC hopeful and the requisite wagering options for that race.

AP will be an underlay, FL and Dort 2/3 choices. Can you really play those horses at those prices with any confidence??

[ringato3]

Value in the eye of the beholder.

I think it is a 3 horse race.  Unfortunately the obvious 3.  If the one I think is best positioned of the 3 to win is about 4-1, that is value - for me.

Believe you are wrong about 3-1.  Then again yesterday you had Materiality as second choice if he ran, which was not possible.  We will see.

[johnnym]

Last year Chrome went of at 1-2  $2.00 tri payed $76.00.

3 horse box tri maybe AP doesn\'t win..
 
Won\'t risk near as much as I did Derby..

Good Luck

[ringato3]

Rich,

Not sure why you want to pick a fight on this.  I like Firing Line and will be betting him.  I pointed to the figures that support it.  

However, I have eyes and I use them.  Approaching far turn and into the early stretch FL looked a winner to me.  Then emptied out and lost to a horse that Espinoza was pushing on MUCH EARLIER in the race.  When I see a horse that is trying a new distance and looks good and then fades a bit late IN ANY RACE I take a look at distance as one of the potential problems.  When the sire is Line of David and many sharp handicappers felt he was distance challenged based on his second race against Dortmund, I have to take a HARD LOOK at it.  

You don\'t have to.  

I looked at it.  Still think he might be, but think the price and quality of the horse and the lack of viable alternatives make him the right play - for me.

Rob