ROTW--Preakness Stakes

[TGAB]

The Preakness Stakes is the ROTW and it is now available on the ROTW page. The rest of the card will be up shortly.

[sekrah]

I am in 100% agreement with the analysis.  Spot on.

[johnnym]

As well

[Fairmount1]

Louisville Courier-Journal, Pharoah\'s Way, Gregory A. Hall, Page 2M, Sunday, May 3, 2015.

\"Jockey Victor Espinoza, who now has won three Derbys and two in a row, said Baffert had texted him at one point recently saying \'you know what, just send him.\'  Then today, Espinoza said he was told by Baffert just to do whatever he wanted.\"

________________

Anyone want to bet on the plan for AP this Saturday?  

1.  SEND
2.  DO WHATEVER YOU [ESPINOZA] WANT

[T Severini]

Don\'t recall ever seeing one of the Triple Crown Classics being the ROTW before.

Thanks TGAB

I\'m gonna give it my Thorograph Sheet Reading shot. Note this is sans peek at TGraphs analysis. After I post, I\'ll check what TGraph states.

1. AP - Likely bounce coming off Career Top with short rest. Chance of bounce exacerbated by abuse in Derby and early training week lack of energy. (Caveat last works not reviewed). Breaking from 1 hole further compromises favorite. He sends with Dortmund or risks being shuffled back and race ridden against rail. (If the other jocks are smart)

2. Dortmund - Still has not broken through 2yr old top. But see no reason for a regression. If the rail was not ideally golden he could move forward to the Zero range, which could win with AP\'s troubles.

3. Mr Z.- Another that has not moved past his 2yr old top with trouble last. He could move forward, but it doesn\'t appear he can move enough points forward to win unless there is a complete race meltdown. He was certainly savaged by AP early and taken up at that stage, but when the running time came he was shuffled back. Perhaps bottom of tickets.

4. Danzig Moon - has just paired tops on a take up, moving forward a point would put him in serious contention, the issue being path. Odds based wager.

5. Tale of Verve - Kinda like Dallas Stewart and he looks to break through his 12.  I bet he beats the 12!

6. Bodhisttve - I don\'t know if I spelled that right and I\"m not rechecking. Sheez, what a name.  He\'s on a 3YO forge!  He\'s on a Forge!  Hey but for his \"put away\" 2yo finale he\'s forged every step of the way . If you ignore that one he\'s a lifetime forge!!!  Just ignore that one! Cept, he took no time off over the winter. This is this colts 12th race!  I think a good head to head is Mr Z. vs Bodhisttve!

7. Divining Rod - Man this looks like a Grass Bred horse to me, what do I know, but can\'t believe they haven\'t turfed this one yet. I don\'t know is he a zig zag figure horse? Even if he low figures lower mutuals maybe.

8 Firing Line - Paired up for the 3rd time, that\'s a move forward pattern right? Could be. Gary has confidence in him. He ran a nice looking race last and if he changes leads I think he wins. Really liked him in the Derby and reports are he\'s still doing well. Major Player.

OK like a Knucklehead, missed the Negative Indication. No change in opinion however.

Ok, in summary, play the bounce on AP...Dortmund and Firing Line top tickets. \"long shot\" look for Danzig Moon. Mr Z on bottom of tickets.

T Sev

[Strike]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Louisville Courier-Journal, Pharoah\'s Way, Gregory
> A. Hall, Page 2M, Sunday, May 3, 2015.
>
> \"Jockey Victor Espinoza, who now has won three
> Derbys and two in a row, said Baffert had texted
> him at one point recently saying \'you know what,
> just send him.\'  Then today, Espinoza said he was
> told by Baffert just to do whatever he wanted.\"
>
> ________________
>
> Anyone want to bet on the plan for AP this
> Saturday?  
>
> 1.  SEND
> 2.  DO WHATEVER YOU  WANT


Lukas was the only trainer that \"was unavailable for comment\" after the Derby. You would have thought he would have had some public congratulatory words for his client, Zayat. I suspect he feels he is beyond the \"kissy kiss\" portion of his life and was not happy -- at all. His horse ran poorly and Baffert won...again.

I foresee Z and AP sending and of course that will be very interesting if it happens. I would also not be surprised if Lukas broadcasts his strategy in the next couple of days to apply a little added pressure to Baffert.

[toppled]

Espinoza isn\'t going to care about Mr. Z.  If Z\'s sent Espinoza will just sit back off of him & Z will be in a different zip code by the time he crosses the finish line when AP is headed to the winner\'s circle.
Some of you are reaching so much your arms must be getting tired.

[Strike]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Espinoza isn\'t going to care about Mr. Z.  If Z\'s
> sent Espinoza will just sit back off of him & Z
> will be in a different zip code by the time he
> crosses the finish line when AP is headed to the
> winner\'s circle.
> Some of you are reaching so much your arms must be
> getting tired.

Maybe, I am reaching but you are betting chalk. I would rather have tired arms than chalk on my face (and everywhere else). I would rather pass and I will not in this race. Anyone can do what you are doing. Takes absolutely no imagination. He wins you get 3/5. So what?

[moosepalm]

Strike Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Maybe, I am reaching but you are betting chalk. I
> would rather have tired arms than chalk on my face
> (and everywhere else). I would rather pass and I
> will not in this race. Anyone can do what you are
> doing. Takes absolutely no imagination. He wins
> you get 3/5. So what?


If you think a horse should be 1/5 (certainly not saying AP is), then 3/5 represents value.  If you have a strong opinion about another horse at decent odds, perhaps also an underlay, then you will have respectable odds, by anyone\'s standard, for an exacta.  Or possibly horizontals.  The point being that saying a horse is 3/5 will not end the conversation for everyone.  People will often define value in terms of their personal goals in wagering, but the concept of value is independent of that.  Many people, myself included, have made a fetish out of trying to beat chalk.  Well, there\'s nothing better than finding bad chalk, and playing against it.  Perhaps AP is one such example of this.  However, I find the signals to be painfully mixed for the top three contenders in this race, so if I have a rare moment of handicapping lucidity, I will move past this race, and look for value in others.  But, if someone thinks he can create value out of AP at 3/5, I\'m not casting stones.

[Strike]

moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Strike Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > Maybe, I am reaching but you are betting chalk.
> I
> > would rather have tired arms than chalk on my
> face
> > (and everywhere else). I would rather pass and
> I
> > will not in this race. Anyone can do what you
> are
> > doing. Takes absolutely no imagination. He wins
> > you get 3/5. So what?
>
>
> If you think a horse should be 1/5 (certainly not
> saying AP is), then 3/5 represents value.  If you
> have a strong opinion about another horse at
> decent odds, perhaps also an underlay, then you
> will have respectable odds, by anyone\'s standard,
> for an exacta.  Or possibly horizontals.  The
> point being that saying a horse is 3/5 will not
> end the conversation for everyone.  People will
> often define value in terms of their personal
> goals in wagering, but the concept of value is
> independent of that.  Many people, myself
> included, have made a fetish out of trying to beat
> chalk.  Well, there\'s nothing better than finding
> bad chalk, and playing against it.  Perhaps AP is
> one such example of this.  However, I find the
> signals to be painfully mixed for the top three
> contenders in this race, so if I have a rare
> moment of handicapping lucidity, I will move past
> this race, and look for value in others.  But, if
> someone thinks he can create value out of AP at
> 3/5, I\'m not casting stones.


Point well taken and I agree with you. My comment was a bit pointed in reply to the \"reaching arms must be tired\" flippant comment from another person. I simply don\'t agree with him and he doesn\'t agree with me. This is what pari-mutuel betting is all about. Preakness will be one of many on Saturday that will be bet with much better opportunities throughout the day.

[toppled]

There are so many other races to bet with a lot better value this weekend at Pimlico, I\'m not wasting my time or money betting the Preakness.  I\'m going to throw 3 action DDs on the Black-Eyed Susan with AP & concentrate on races where I can actually make some money.  If I don\'t have the DD going, I\'m not getting suckered into any Preakness bets. I\'m not betting on AP at 3/5, I already made my money on him in the Derby and got paid $18.20, not $7.80.    

If trying to play into an unplayable race is your idea of imagination, I\'d rather do the unimaginative thing-sit back & watch the race for the sheer enjoyment of the sport, hopefully with pockets full from cashing the earlier races where I could actually make a score instead of playing a race just because it\'s part of the Triple Crown.  I\'d bet year after year, the Preakness takes the least handle from this board than any of the Triple Crown races because it usually offers the least value. So go ahead & bet a race that if it was any other race on any other day you\'d run from as fast as you could. I\'ll just watch & when AP comes in complete my plans to go to Belmont, where I\'ll root for the Triple Crown but leave my options open at the windows because if I\'m trying to beat AP I\'d rather be playing the race Baffert is 0 for3 with his Derby winners in than the race he\'s 3 for 3.

[T Severini]

Strike Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> toppled Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Espinoza isn\'t going to care about Mr. Z.  If
> Z\'s
> > sent Espinoza will just sit back off of him & Z
> > will be in a different zip code by the time he
> > crosses the finish line when AP is headed to
> the
> > winner\'s circle.
> > Some of you are reaching so much your arms must
> be
> > getting tired.
>
> Maybe, I am reaching but you are betting chalk. I
> would rather have tired arms than chalk on my face
> (and everywhere else). I would rather pass and I
> will not in this race. Anyone can do what you are
> doing. Takes absolutely no imagination. He wins
> you get 3/5. So what?

I\'ve tended to root for Bob Baffert and he\'s been Golden in the Preakness after winning the Derby and that is the opportunity.

AP gets credit for going wide and winning the Derby, but he really wasn\'t that wide. He broke sharp raced up and mauled Mr. Z for the 3 wide path and that path looked to me where he stayed. The 5 wide, I\'d projected and he might finish 3rd. AP let the leaders do battle and then made the move I was sure Materiality was gonna make, (First run at the tiring leaders.)  The winning margin shrunk tremendously off his prior races. Not only that to get over the hump he took more lashes of the whip than Kunta Kinta .

Baffert likes the way AP worked Tuesday. Others were not as impressed. Something still doesn\'t feel right about AP or the Derby. It certainly was not impressive visually. Now the horse gets the 1 hole and has to try and speed pop them or risks getting tangled. He\'s run on the lead before, the race where he snailed it down and left Texas Red with too much to do. He\'s going to the front off a hard race. It\'s a send. Give him a little company and he could get late.

I\'m gonna judge him off his paddock showing. If I sense the least little lack of enthusiasm I\'m tossing him entirely. It will be a play AP out small exotic strategy or no mas. Bet small win big, with AP off the board. If the circumstances warrant, the payout could be spectacular.

[toppled]

It looks like we are in agreement on finding better value in other races.

The reason for my comment was because after the Derby I saw more outright hatred for the horse who won by some people who didn\'t play him & frankly, I felt that most of the comments were desperate reaches out of emotion rather than logic.  Your post just happened to be the one I responded to make my point & others here have been a lot more negative than you have.  

It also got pretty annoying because I was really happy cashing my 1st Derby future ever & starting with Pizza\'s \"Worst Derby Ever\" thread I was sick of people peeing in my cornflakes.

[sekrah]

T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Don\'t recall ever seeing one of the Triple Crown
> Classics being the ROTW before.
>
> Thanks TGAB
>

LOL, I think either Preakness or Belmont was a ROTW every single year since I\'ve been here.