Black Eyed Susan

[Fairmount1]

Maybe I\'ve been missing this type of reward for winning a stakes.....  

\"Adena Springs has donated a season to Awesome Again to the winning filly.  Filly must be approved by Adena Springs.\"  

So....basically, the winner MIGHT get a season to Awesome Again and MIGHT NOT.  Hilarious stuff Frank as you work on more outstanding Breeding awards.

[miff]

DRF:

Following Keen Pauline\'s 15-1 upset victory in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, here are the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness daily double will pays for a $2 wager. There was $672,521 wagered.

1 American Pharoah $86.60

2 Dortmund $192.40

3 Mr. Z $1,063.60

4 Danzig Moon $507.40

5 Tale of Verve $1,595.80

6 Bodhisattva $1,870.20

7. Divining Rod $366.60

8 Firing Line $156.

[rossi3839]

Miff, thanks for the daily double will pays.

Note: This post was edited on 05-16-15 @ 6.25a.m. because of error in my methodology for the calculation. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. Thanks to jbaugh66 for his post that alerted me to check my figures.

Odds based on the daily double will pays:
1. American Pharoah  1.64
2. Dortmund  4.87
3. Mr. Z  31.43
4. Danzig Moon  14.47
5. Tale of Verve  47.65
6. Bodhisattva  56.02
7. Divining Rod  10.18
8. Firing Line  3.76

It appears like American Pharoah was not bet in the daily double and Divining Rod took some money.

[T Severini]

(3)..no... that\'s (4) did an a.m. one.

I\'m going to be very eager to Redboard Keen Pauline tomorrow, because on what I\'m reviewing she just doesn\'t look fast enough.

[jp702006]

She wasn\'t. That was a big forward move. However, in this case race dynamics played a big roll. The jock on Luminence let Pauline clear him and she got away with moderate fractions up front. Baffert cannot be very happy about his jocks ride in this race.

[jp702006]

Role.......

[Leamas57]

That Tapit filly is going places. I wouldn\'t be surprised if she becomes a golden goose for the owners.  These three year olds can emerge overnight. Maybe she stole the race (think she\'s just good, too), but the outcome in that race is what jocks in the big race tomorrow will try to avoid.

 NO ONE will steal the Preakness as a result.  I even submit that they go about 45+, 109+, and AP and FL will be within one, most two, lengths of front (or on it). Now it gets interesting because add any short-comeback fatigue to a hot pace and you have whoever sits back 3-4 off with a chance to win or get place. I am thinking DM maybe or Dort perhaps. DR could sneak in underneath, too, with the right ride.

Leamas

[jbaugh66]

I may not be figuring it right, but my win odds based on the double payoffs are quite a bit different from yours.  I have...

6-5  American Pharoah  (38%)
7-2  Dortmund (18%)
25-1 Mr. Z (3%)
11-1 Danzig Moon (6.5%)
39-1 Tale of Verve (2%)
45-1 Bodhisattva (1.75%)
8-1  Divining Rod (9%)
5-2  Firing Line (21%)

The way I figure it is by adding the 18% Win takeout back into the payoff of the first leg.  So in this example, I figure the Preakness Win odds based on Keen Pauline paying $40.00 rather than the after takeout amount of $32.80.  I\'m usually a % point or 2 off, but it\'s pretty close.

Not trying to be a smarty pants, because this still isn\'t exactly right.  If anyone knows the proper calculation, I would be glad to know it.

[rossi3839]

Miff, thanks for the daily double will pays.

 Note: This post was edited on 05-16-15 @ 6.25a.m. because of error in my methodology for the calculation. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. Thanks to jbaugh66 for his post that alerted me to check my figures.

 Odds based on the daily double will pays:
 1. American Pharoah 1.64
 2. Dortmund 4.87
 3. Mr. Z 31.43
 4. Danzig Moon 14.47
 5. Tale of Verve 47.65
 6. Bodhisattva 56.02
 7. Divining Rod 10.18
 8. Firing Line 3.76

How I did the calculation for odds on daily double will pays:
1. Daily double will pay for American Pharoah: $86.60
2. Price of the first leg winner (Keen Pauline): $32.80
3. $86.60 – 32.80 = $53.80
4. $53.80 / $32.80 = 1.64

I repeated this for each horse.  

Please let me know if I made an error in my methodology for the calculation. TIA


 It appears like American Pharoah was not bet in the daily double and Divining Rod took some money.

[jbelfior]

These odds make sense. Interesting that DR may be lower odds than DM.

My prediction: Dortmund stalks the pace today and wears down AP late as FL falters in the lane. Mr Z, after setting the early pace, holds on determinedly for 3rd. Zayat, livid that Baffert\'s other horse has denied him a chance at racing immortality, fires Baffert and sells a 40% share of AP to Calumet Farm. Wayne Lukas will now train AP and immediately maps out an aggressive summer campaign for the horse starting with the Woody Stephens, Met Mile, and Belmont Stakes all in the same day. \"Hey, trotters do it all the time\" says DWayne. \"Our goal is the Haskell at Monmouth and we think these 3 races will set him up nicely.\"
He also announces that Mr.Z will run in all 3 as well with the Jim Dandy, Forego, and Travers as his ultimate goal.

Enjoy the day everyone.
Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Basing the DD prices off the winners $32.00 is not reasonable, she was way higher than that, like mid $40\'s. Maybe someone punched Castellano in both ends of the DD to make Diving Rod somewhat short.

Unimaginable going in that winner would only be 15-1. Where are the \"underlay\" guys?,Rick B.

[jbaugh66]

That is the way that I always did it too.  The problem is that, using the resulting odds, one could dutch the field for an automatic profit.

It was pointed out to me, that I was, in effect, charging the track takeout for both legs.  I was told that if I divided the first leg payout by .82 (Pimlico win takeout = 18%) that my resulting odds would be much more representative of the true odds.

Once I started doing that I saw that dutching the field yielded a 16%-18% loss, which is more in line with reality.  I\'m still a tad off because the Daily Double takeout is always a tiny bit higher than Win takeout.

This was shown to me by a mostly drunk old dude who pretty much lived at the OTB.  He was always in need of 2 bucks for the bet that would get him back in the game, but he ironically  seemed to have a wealth of knowledge about the game and bankroll management.

[toppled]

I use a simpler method which is pretty effective. All I do is double the win price & divide it into the payoff.  I use it to find live horses in the DD.  If the horse\'s odds are twice as much as the DD will pays, I view it as live.  Since I can now get all DD odds after the race closes, if a longshot wins the 1st leg I use the DD odds with the favorite instead.

[rossi3839]

Another way is to divide the daily double will pay for the favorite of the race to equal his approximate morning live odds. So, divide $86.60 double will pay for AP by 100 to get to his approximate 4/5 morning line odds. Then divide the will pays for all the other horse\'s will pays by 100. So, for example, Divining Rod\'s $366 divided by 100 equals 3.66-1. He took a lot of action compared to his morning line odds of 12-1.