Mike,
As for the question you asked, i don\'t see anybody sitting on a big performance. If American Pharaoh runs a race as good as his Derby or Preakness, I don\'t think he will be beat (figures aside, I think his Derby/Preakness were about the same from a racetrack performance perspective).
To be honest though, I sometimes handicap the Belmont a bit differently, because so few horses here are really bred to go 1 1/2 on dirt (because we have so few races carded so far). It is sort of like attrition, instead of looking for who is sitting on a big top or big performance, I am looking for who can run a representative race relative to their recent form. And as much as I seldom look at breeding in handicapping except for 1st time starters and 1st time grass, I do look at breeding for the Belmont. Whereas I think you can get milers or mile and 1/16 horses that are in peak shape to run well in the Derby or Preakness, I think the Belmont does separate the distance horses from the brilliant milers.
I have liked Materiality since he went by Stanford like he was standing still in that 1 1/8th race at Gulfstream. When he dug in and beat a solid horse like Upstart, in what I thought was the most impressive derby prep, it confirmed what I thought - that he was the real deal. Unlike others who think he ran well in the derby with a bad trip, I think he was just mediocre, but not awful. And I can give any horse on mulligan. Based on breeding, I think Materiality is as good or better than any in the field, with the exception of the Dubai horse, who looks slow to me (although hard to completely toss because the slower pace and grind of the Belmont may make him a plausible borderline contender).
I also don\'t love AP going 1 1/2. he fits the mold to me of the Sunday Silence type horse, which is a compliment, but fluid stride and acceleration are not things that make Belmont winners. I think Baffert is 10x the trainer Pletcher is in the Triple Crown, so I don\'t expect AP to have a Big Brown type performance, but I just don\'t see him winning on Saturday. I see a relatively fast pace, with at least one or two horses wanting to go to the front, so I don\'t see AP setting a galloping pace and drawing off. He will have to run early and late to win, and off the rough campaign, against some relatively fast horses, he feels like a play against.
figuring out who to key on is tricky. I will be on Materiality, but he can\'t be a \"stand\". Frosted is another fast contender. So, he can be used. I really think the other Pletcher (peter pan winner) is a slow slug, but I also think he is sitting on a \"big race\" for him, whether that is big enough to contend at all, is very questionable. No doubt in my mind he was a different horse in the Peter Pan. And 3 year olds coming to form have to be respected.
Great race. Great card (it appears to be).
No walkover for AP!
Rob
