Pletcher Recent Belmont History

[ringato3]

I think you have your own board confused with the \"other\" board TGJB.

I am pretty sure that Len could convince Vito that Copernicus was wrong and the world is flat......

I could see the debate now.  \"I am not a scientist, so I accept what science/Len tells me as fact is fact\".......

Rob

[TGJB]

Worse. His position is \"I admit I don\'t know anything about the subject but I know I\'m right, and you\'re (fill in the blank for the name they\'re calling me that day)\".

There\'s an expression, arguing like a woman. As a guy whose girlfriend went to Yale I can tell you some girls don\'t. And some guys do.

Having said that, there\'s been an outbreak of unsupported assertions here recently...

[Tavasco]

Interesting assertion

[miff]

Welsch:

Pretty much a routine morning for the first three Belmont contenders to train, MATERIALITY, CARPE DIEM and TALE OF VERVE.  

Materiality and Carpe Diem did their usual things, the former galloping about a mile and five-eighths, the latter jogging a mile and galloping nearly a mile and one half. Carpe Diem had his best morning of the week and is scheduled to work tomorrow along with trainer Todd Pletcher\'s other Belmont contenders, Materiality and Madeforlucky.  

Tale of Verve, like Carpe Diem, jogged a mile the wrong way accompanied by the outrider, stood for several minutes at the seven furlong pole, then reversed direction and galloped a mile while well in hand and wanting to do more as he passed by the wire, pulling up shortly thereafter, this coming a day after blowing out impressively for trainer Dallas Stewart on Wednesday.  His final Belmont prep is scheduled for the weekend.

Only two Belmont starters came out to train after the renovation break, the venerable MUBTAAHIJ and FROSTED.  Mubtaahij jogged seven furlongs, galloped about a mile out past the middle of the track with his rider having her feet in the dashboard as they came by the wire.  Frosted just another very leisurely gallop today, about a mile and 5/8\'s, in preparation for his scheduled work on Friday.  MADEFROMLUCKY had a change in venue today,  going to the training track  to gallop earlier this morning.

[miff]

Welsch:

CARPE DIEM and MADEFROMLUCKY worked in company, neither all that impressive this morning. Both horses got hot in the warm up, Carpe Diem backing up with the pony, jockey John Velazquez aboard. The duo broke off almost on top of the half-mile pole with \"Lucky\" nearest the rail.  The two were well held through early splits of  13.03, 24.58 , changed leads on cue, then began to separate near mid-stretch with Carpe Diem edging clear about a length to a length and one half while drifting some to the wire after a half in 47.70  and Madeforlucky under pressure trying to keep pace.  Velazquez quickly straightened Carpe Diem out at the wire,  after which he continued to hold the edge, finishing willingly under just a hint  of urging, completing the five furlong drill an eighth mile past the wire in 1:00.23 with Madeforlucky about two lengths back in 1:00.64.  The team continued out six furlongs in 1:13.85 and 1:14.05 respectively.

[ringato3]

Mike,

Seems Welsch liked Frosted best today.  Not impressed with Materiality either.

I don\'t make bets on works, at least not with experienced horses, but it sure seems like things are lining up for AP to get this Triple Crown, based on the works, at least.  

As somebody who wants to bet horizontally and maybe vertically with MAteriality (and Frosted), I sure wish Materiality would be a bit more impressive pre-race.  

On the bright side, for those that don\'t wager or watch the NY circuit, Pletcher winning with everything.  Red hot.  

Rob

[mjellish]

It\'s interesting that Pletcher is back to working Carpe Diem in company again after babying him for a month leading up to the Derby and working him alone at Keenland.  That seemed to backfire as the colt came up empty with no excuses that I could see (other than maybe being on a deeper rail for first part of race) after a mile with a good trip in Louisville.  Ran like a short horse.

Will be interesting to see how he and others come out of their final works.  AP by all accounts looking very well at CD.  But Chrome last year looked pretty good training until about Thurs before Belmont and then started to show signs of tailing off.  It\'s not just the works the matter.

[miff]

Rob,

Saw that,it seems to most watching that none of these horses are anything but ok.Materiality gets beat pretty often in the am and Stanford is no slouch and a good worker, dont think that means much.

Very subtle works, inside of horses for Materiality and Frosted tells me trainers working them a bit out of their comfort zones,which is outside in the clear, esp Frosted who was a bit rank early in both the Wood and Derby resenting hard hold/or kick back(watch)

AP floating like a butterfly on the CD feeds looking great so far.Weighed in 1,186lbs matching his weight pre Ark Derby. Baffert very candid, expects AP to run well but readily admits no way to know if he will handle 12f, believes fluid gait will give AP a better chance to go longer than he would normally expect.Inferred AP not going to be ridden cute, going for it(assume that means he\'s going to try to wire or sit right up close, no real surprise)

PP\'s/sheets show main contenders coming off just ok type performances which affirms to me that its more AP\'s race to lose, still dont buy any of these horses are outrunning him near his best.


Mike

[BitPlayer]

I read on Pull the Pocket that Carpe Diem may have bled in the Derby.

http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/2015/05/big-days-mo-money-and-poltics.html

[mjellish]

Haven\'t heard this at all.  Can anyone verify?

[TGJB]

I have it on good authority it\'s not true.

[mjellish]

That\'s my assumption too

[miff]

More than one observer of Carpe Diem during his recent training thought he may not run in the Belmont.Rogu-ish type gets out frequently and gets hot in am/parading. TAP/Walden would not run if horse wasn\'t ok but the derby performance was so weak, gotta wonder if Carpe scoped dirty or something was bothering him.Still wonder if Johnny V rides Carpe or Mat, assuming he still has a choice.

TAP remarked pre derby that Capre has good gate speed and would be forwardly placed, expecting same in Belmont.From what connections say, looks like AP, Mat,Carpe first flight with Frosted closer this time in second flight, slugs in the back.

AP and Mat have never let a horse pass them once they were challenged,a great hook up possible between these two.

[Silver Charm]

Why was Materialitys head turned slightly sideways during his routine work with Carpe yesterday? He was wheezing pretty bad and very washy coming off the track after a routine gallop on the Wednesday before Derby. And I guess the assumption is now that with the 5 weeks off he is right back to his Florida Derby effort? He has had basically one race in 8 weeks so I guess any type of effort is possible. But the prevailing assumptions seem to be that all the competition is going to come in here run some sort of giant effort and American Pharoah will look like a underweight shaggy State Fair Pony when he takes to the track.

Go look it up in the Archives here. BOTH Silver Charm and Real Quiet got BACK to their 3 year old TOPS in the Belmont. Point Given ran a 2 point New Top and Bayern at least 2 and maybe 3 pt new top. The last two horses went seriously negative. Baffert will have this horse ready!

If you cant take the short price on AP then its understandable. Then don\'t use him in your Pick 3\'s, 4\'s or even 6. American Pharoah is still the horse to beat.

[ringato3]

Silver

Careful with the misinformation.   Game hard enough without weeding through that.

Materiality didn\'t work in company with carpe dieM.

As for your comment about everybody lining up to bet against AP and expecting everybody else to run huge.   Way out of line.  AP gonna be 4/5 or lower.   Hardly an underdog.   Some are willing to bet against him firing big for the 4th time in 8 weeks and expecting materiality or frosted to run back to their tops.

Hyperbole this time of year a bit rampant..

Rob