Belmont Odds

[joekay]

11 days away, thinking about how the odds will be, here\'s a stab, all comments welcome:

A\'s 1-1 to less, AP

B\'s 4-1 to 8-1, Mat, Fro

C\'s 9-1 to 15-1, CD, Mub, Mad  

D\'s 16-1 to 25-1, TOV, KI, CC

E\'s 25-1+ Fra

[ringato3]

JoeKay,

Looks about right.

Think 4/5 on AP.

5-1 and 6-1 respectively on Frosted and Materiality.

double digits the rest.

Rob

[jp702006]

Carpe Diem could be in the 8-1, 9-1 range........

[KeithB]

Full Wynn Belmont Odds / Open / Current

American Pharoah 4/5 / 20-21

Frosted 4-1 / 4-1

Materiality 7-1 / 9-2

Carpe Diem 12-1 / 12-1

Mubtaahij 15-1 / 16-1

Madefromlucky 18-1 / 20-1

Keen Ice 20-1 / 20-1

Tale of Verve 35-1 / 40-1

Frammento 35-1 / 35-1

Conquest Curlinate 40-1 / 45-1

[louisvilleguy1111]

AP will be 3/5 or less... There will be thousands betting $2 at a time hoping to have a collectable in hand if AP wins. Last year I have a crazy buddy that lives in NY he bought $2000 worth of win tickets on CC $2 at a time. I warned him but he wouldn\'t hear of it, lol... The rest is history.

[miff]

Lou,

Fits the profile of many NY\'ers.....crazy!


Mike

[ringato3]

Louisville,

Somewhere around 20 million in the win pool. The $2 souvenir tickets relatively negligible.  3/5 very light considering all the failures of Triple Crown winners and a relatively representative field.

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Why would the failed attempts of previous TC attempts have anything to do with the chances of AP?

The representative field all dusted pretty good by AP in the derby/preak.

Mike

[ringato3]

Mike,

Not sure what the percentages of \"sharp money\" vs \"tourist money\" is on a day like Belmont STakes day.  

Gonna use the host here as an example.  TGJB has said he has bet AGAINST every triple crown attempt since the last triple crown winner.  Of the \"large bettors\" I correspond with, 2/3 gonna be swinging hard against AP.  (doesn\'t mean they will be right, but it will affect final odds of AP)

When something hasn\'t happened in the last 13 times it has been attempted, and large players are gonna swing against, hard to think the horse is gonna be 3-5 or 1-2.

I didn\'t say it has anything to do with his chances of doing it (your post), my post was about what his \"off odds\" will be.  

They aren\'t necessarily related!

Rob

[miff]

Ahh, thought there was some inference that the failure of previous attempts by other horses not named AP had some relevance to his chances.

[ringato3]

Nope, but it might give the equivalent of \"beer muscles\" to those of us that want to swing hard against him..........

Rob

[P-Dub]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike,
>
> Not sure what the percentages of \"sharp money\" vs
> \"tourist money\" is on a day like Belmont STakes
> day.  
>
> Gonna use the host here as an example.  TGJB has
> said he has bet AGAINST every triple crown attempt
> since the last triple crown winner.  Of the \"large
> bettors\" I correspond with, 2/3 gonna be swinging
> hard against AP.  (doesn\'t mean they will be
> right, but it will affect final odds of AP)
>
> When something hasn\'t happened in the last 13
> times it has been attempted, and large players are
> gonna swing against, hard to think the horse is
> gonna be 3-5 or 1-2.
>
> I didn\'t say it has anything to do with his
> chances of doing it (your post), my post was about
> what his \"off odds\" will be.  
>
> They aren\'t necessarily related!
>
> Rob


Spectacular Bid: 3-10
Pleasant Colony: 4-5
Alysheba: 4-5
Sunday Silence: 9-10
Silver Charm: Even
Real Quiet: 4-5
Charismatic: 8-5
War Emblem:6-5
Funny Cide: Even
Smarty Jones: 3-10
Big Brown: 3-10
I\'ll Have Another: Scratched

AP goes off less than even, and probably closer to 1-2. He will be 3-5 at best.  The way he has won, many times by open lengths (in addition to ripping off 6 straight wins), the public will be enamored with him.

There is a lot of public money in these races that more than offset the \"sharp\" money.

IMO this field doesn\'t have the type of competition that will sway the average fan to bet them. I don\'t see Easy Goer, Free House, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, Bet Twice, etc.. AP\'s main competition has put in some pretty miserable performances compared to the ones I just mentioned. I\'m talking performances in the TC races. The ones mentioned from past attempts, for the most part, ran well in the TC races.

Materiality, Frosted, Mubtaahij, Carpe Diem etc.. will not take enough money from the average fan to offset the AP money.

If AP isn\'t at least 3-5, I will not argue if anybody mentions:

- Wide Mike Smith
- Easy Goer was better than Sunday Silence
- Rachel was better than Zenyatta

Probation will be 1 week.

And.......How bout them DUBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[louisvilleguy1111]

Rob

He was 4/5 in the Preakness facing the 2nd and 3rd and 5th place finishers from KY trust me he will be 3/5 or less in the Belmont with the nuts coming out to bet with both hands $2 a time... Hoping to make a score selling on eBay if he wins.

[ringato3]

P-Dub

Looking forward to a ton of Mike Smith cracks in two weeks...

Louisville

I get your point.  Let\'s see what happens.  There are more horses in the Belmont and I think Materiality, Frosted and Carpe Diem are as interesting and playable as Firing Line and Dortmund were in the Preakness.  Plus there are 10 horses not 8, along with a long failure of Belmont triple crown tries, whereas the Derby winner seems to win the Preakness almost every year (which I am not sure I understand why)

Hoping both you guys are right, as I am \"pot committed\" to go after AP, so hoping he is as short as you expect he will be.  

Rob

[louisvilleguy1111]

I am tired of trying to beat the horse myself. I have decided to sit back and root for a triple crown winner for the sport. Although this is the leg to try and beat him as history has shown... good luck Rob, I gotta feeling after his last work your fighting an uphill battle.