Keen Ice

[sekrah]

This is my Belmont play.

1) Belmont Stakes with horses trying to win the Triple Crown tend to have faster fractions. Nobody wants to let the winner get away with a soft lead.

2) Prefer his pedigree over Frosted and Materiality.

3) Training well by all accounts.

4) Pattern is excellent and alive for another 2-3 point jump forward if he fires.


Whatever.  This is the best I could come up with.

[big18741]

Think he can hit the board somewhere 1-2-3

Given the crazy results in this race over the years I\'m playing tris:

KI/ALL/ALL
ALL/KI/ALL
ALL/ALL/KI

Don\'t know how else to play it.
I don\'t trust any of the fast ones to run their #\'s at this distance.

[jerry]

Unfortunately, with only 8 horses and your tri key costing $126, you\'re going to need more than AP to run OTB to make anything. Could happen, but I\'d key someone other than Keen Ice who, I think will be 4th betting choice. While I like tri plays like the one you\'ve structured, I think the value could be in the exacta.

[sekrah]

I\'ll take that bet on Keen Ice being the 4th betting choice.  He\'s already sitting 25-1 on Offshore books behind Mub, MFL, and ToV.  They are usually pretty good at predicting post time odds in the TC races.

[jbelfior]

You read that on Bloodhorse. It fails to mention that many of those had larger fields with multiple horses that could press early.

So I will ask again. How does Keen Ice get into the race? No evidence of a turn of foot or being up close while still finishing. Would need a complete collapse IMO. Romans infamous for chirping up plodders that have long-winded parents in their limited resume.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[flushedstraight]

As a committed sheet player, two main things I like about Keyn Ice

- breaking out in the ky derby from the tight range set in the four starts from the Remsen last Nov through the la Derby

- the obvious negatives of this NW1 eligible via conventional capping creates potential overlay scenario


IMO one of the most lucrative sheet angles is the hidden breakout; I\'m assuming despite the finish ahead of 11 horses at 45-1 as 3rd longest shot in derby he\'s still way under most radars.

I can\'t knock anyone attacking AP in the win pool but I question the value on fraudsted & doorMat given the much discussed question marks, mostly valid to some extent. Seems a decent plan to try to get a bomb into the triple, and not be concerned which one or two of the top three fail to make it in. The expected odds for KI make it so easy to spread out and you can still profit if the racing gods don\'t show up and Buffy gets the TC.

[MonmouthGuy]

My main play will be straight exacta AP-KI based on reasons discussed in below thread. I cannot play against AP based on the weaknesses of the two main contenders Frosted (agree w Miff) and Materiality (agree w current thread he will be done by 9F).  

KI hasn\'t gone backwards, still has room for development off his 2YO top, looks the part in training, and is most likely horse in my opinion to stay.  He will run a plodding Union Rags type \"2\" w a 1W1W trip and pass half the field in the long Belmont stretch but AP is not Paynter.

Wish Upstart was running here off the 5 weeks rest. Galloped for first time this week.

[toppled]

Why is Keen Ice, sheet-wise, any better a play than Frammento?  I\'m not crazy about either one, but I don\'t see much of a difference between the two & Frammento is 30/1 ML vs Ice\'s 20/1 ML odds.

[sekrah]

There\'s really not much difference between him and Frammento sheet-wise.

I just like Keen Ice\'s Derby much more. He was practically stopped from the 1/4 to 3/16 poles. He probably would have hit the super with a clean trip. Shouldn\'t have any road blocks in his way in this field.

I wouldn\'t grief anybody for playing Frammento at 30-1. That\'s a live pattern.

[Paolo]

\"Don\'t know how else to play it\"

For starters, scrap the tri with KI on top and put the $42 that the tri would cost on his nose in the win pool. At 20-1, you\'ll get a tax-free $840. Chances are good that the tri would pay less than that. On the chance that it pays more, you will get a W2-G. Basically, you are just hoping that the Zito, Stewart, and Dubai horse round out the bottom of your tri. If so, you could play the win money and then a much cheaper tri with him on top of the three longshots?

But what do I know? I flunked out of junior high math.

[jerry]

Well then I\'m wrong and KI is a good key.

[sekrah]

I\'m not bothering with verts. Straight win bet for me.

[big18741]

Brilliant Speed was the same idea for me in 2011 but I only used him on top.

Thought he could run a new top(best figure) in the 0 range which he did but with wide loving Rosario riding he runs third and the tri pays 8K +

So no all or nothing here.
I feel pretty good about KI running a couple point or more new top which should have him hit the board.I have no feel what any other horse in the race will do at this distance.Nothing would surprise me.

Tri key bet in the 1-2-3 positions with everything just a base bet for me.
I\'ll have some win,some extra combos with KI in the tri\'s mixed in with the three favorites.