Question for anyone who likes Materiality

[mjellish]

From looking at the past performances it would appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front runners in the race.  AP is a confirmed front runner.  He may not have the lead but he is going to be close.  And it\'s hard to believe that Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.  

So if you assume that to be true, how do you take Materiality to win that duel?  Do you figure AP to bounce or not get the distance?  

If not, if you think they will both run their race and have about the same chance of getting the distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse and will run on longer?  That\'s a pretty tough pill for me to swallow.
 
I can really see playing this race assuming that if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority of the trip around he will likely get cooked.  AP may get cooked as well and someone else passes them both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.

For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.

[Leamas57]

Well, it might not have been intended in the Derby, but in that race Mat learned a little about how to eat dirt and pass horses.

Leamas

[jbelfior]

Frosted\'s Derby was much more impressive than Materiality\'s. Middle moved past him while very wide on the turn and still finished ahead of him despite Materiality being inside.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ringato3]

MJellish,

Sure, I could see Materiality as a toss for anybody that likes AP.  AP puts Materiality away up front and he fades out of the money, with suck up longshots underneath (or Frosted).

Very viable scenario.

I see Materiality just off AP and puttting him away on the turn.  I strongly disagree with your assertion that they have the same chance to get the distance.  Pedigrees are very different.  Based on pedigrees, I would see Materiality as having the 1st or 2nd best (behind Dubai horse) and would see AP as having the 7th best or thereabouts.  (all due respect to Mike\'s point about his previous route wins dispelling his distance limited dam side pedigree, I am a believer that milers can get the 1 1/4 if they are superior to their competition, but NOT the 1 1/2 and I think there is substantial track evidence to support that in the previous runnings of the Belmont)

Best,

Rob

[mjellish]

Rob,

I didn\'t assert anything with regards to distance breeding or capabilities of either of these two colts.  As far as I\'m concerned the only one bred to get the distance is Mubta.  They don\'t breed them to get 1 1/2 in North America anymore.  But I don\'t think based on breeding you should say that Mat is any likelier to get the distance than AP.  

And what do you do with Frammento?  He isn\'t \"bred\" to get the distance, but Zito has been saying all spring, since before the Bluegrass even, that this is a mile and half colt.  Look at Da Tara\'s breeding.  Did he look any likelier to get the distance than Frammento does?

Only assertion I made is that for me Mat is a toss in this spot.  And I base that on tactical racing style.  I don\'t like him at all.  And I stand by that statement.

[ringato3]

MJ

We will agree to disagree on Materiality and AP\'s breeding.  I don\'t understand your position based on the female family for AP having been nothing but sprinters, but it is your position.

As for Frammento, I can\'t do anything with him.  He is too slow.

I generally can\'t play horses that are non-competitive from a numbers perspective, at least on top.  

There is a short list of fast horses here. AP, Frosted, Materiality.  I tried to make a case for slower horses to move up, but other than very weak cases for the peter pan winner and Mubtahij, I can\'t really make a case.

As for Da Tara winning. When horses like that win, I lose.  I accept that before the race, when I make the bet.  I couldn\'t have D\'Tara with monopoly money.  Sometimes we have aberrational results and I accept that and accept that I mostly lose when that happens.

As the first line of my post said, i can absolutely see the case for tossing Materiality.  If I liked AP, and thought he would run another big race, I would toss Materiality based on tactics and the fact that AP would \"run him into the ground\".  

But I Don\'t like AP in this spot, at this distance, with this spacing, with that breeding, so I will key Materiality and not toss him!

Good luck.  Different opinions make this game.

Rob

[Tavasco]

I have been pondering this same issue for days. I conclude that Materiality believers envision him getting the lead with AP unable to get by and failing to hold position late.

This is predicated on the belief that the Florida Derby was knockout fast and Mat, as a lightly raced horse, will bounce back (from his troubled trip in KY) as well as get the distance. Further this viewpoint ignores pace (early & late) considerations. While maybe most important of all, they  pooh pooh the doubters who say FL numbers only valid in FL races.

This gate to wire vision makes the expected price seem a gift!

This camp has diminishing numbers as more and more of them succumb to being run over by buses.

[jbelfior]

Exactly. That\'s why I believe that class, racing tactics, strategy, race preparation go more to determing the winner than pedigree.

Anyone impressed with the pedigree of Ruler On Ice, Commendable, D\'Tara, or Tabasco Cat?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[SoCalMan2]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From looking at the past performances it would
> appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front
> runners in the race.  AP is a confirmed front
> runner.  He may not have the lead but he is going
> to be close.  And it\'s hard to believe that
> Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.  
>
> So if you assume that to be true, how do you take
> Materiality to win that duel?  Do you figure AP to
> bounce or not get the distance?  
>
> If not, if you think they will both run their race
> and have about the same chance of getting the
> distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse
> and will run on longer?  That\'s a pretty tough
> pill for me to swallow.
>  
> I can really see playing this race assuming that
> if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority of
> the trip around he will likely get cooked.  AP may
> get cooked as well and someone else passes them
> both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.
>
> For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.

I would view the scenario you are looking at unfolding as not a lot different than the way the derby unfolded between  AP and Firing Line. It was the only time AP has faced a real challenge and it was a stirring duel.  AP required significant whip work to get there, Firing Line may have damaged his final position by never switching leads.  I will note that Gary Stevens felt very confident that he could reverse the result. And so did a lot of other people, so the idea of a horse running with AP early and finishing him off in a duel is not such a crazy thought.

I see Materiality as running the same sort of race in the Belmont that Firing Line did in the Derby. Materiality handled a fairly tough stretch duel in the Florida Derby, so to my eye, he has been there and done it. Maybe Materiality does switch leads and AP needs to face a rerally?  Maybe AP doesn\'t respond as well to the 32 strokes necessary in the Belmont as he did in the Derby (not as fresh, maybe thinking enough is enough).  How does that help in your scenario?

My plan is to just enjoy this race and not be encumbered with any bets.  However, one thing I will point out is that if AP dusts this field in the Belmont, where does that put Firing Line?  As far as I can see, if that happens, AP will have a remarkable set of PPs and the only horse that ever really ran with him would be Firing Line.  Firing Line could be something really special if we ever get a chance to see him.  AS far as I can remember, he has yet to bounce.

[toppled]

With American Pharoah #5 & Materiality #8, the Materiality on the lead scenario takes a major hit.  What I could see is Mubtaahij being sent from the rail, making him the 3rd pace horse.  I don\'t see Materiality ahead of American Pharoah at any point in the race.

[Tavasco]

Neither do I, then again I\'m with MJellish and tossing him like an umsputin stone.

[TGJB]

I was realty impressed by the \"class\" of those horses, though.

[johnnym]

On paper both horses are equally as fast. Maybe this turns into a jockey\'s race in which case Johnny V has the edge..
Good luck

[jbelfior]

So was I Jerry. I had all 4 of them.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

You\'re a riot. On both counts.