Question for anyone who likes Materiality

[richiebee]

Nyet.

[Tavasco]

It may take me awhile to get this hook out of my mouth and since maximova is headed for the French open.

2nd guess, Who played Dirty Harry in True North?

[richiebee]

Strike Two.

[Tavasco]

Ritchie,

I\'m stumped!

I find several other opportunity horses but Swipe doesn\'t fit the profile and probably only gets 2nd or 3rd in the Baby Stakes.

White Rose is another with a price but may not get to the front until too late.

Artic North ran big @ 2M but that was then and this is now the connections may be hallucinating more than I.

The sound you hear is me tapping out. Which ever horse it is good luck with it!

[richiebee]

Tavasco:

I\'m looking at the uncoupled stablemate of Inspector Callahan...

[Tavasco]

Gracias

[Michael D.]

what if both Victor and Johnny V decide to run as slow as they possibly can early on? what if they go 24.5 & 50? what if they both have tight holds entering the far turn? if that happens, this thing plays more like a 9 or 10f race. if this plays like a 9 or 10f race, the 4-5, 4-1, and 5-1 shots are the best horses, and there is no bet to be made imo. Mat is fast, but he has a 110 Beyer on the page that everybody sees. what exactly are you betting on? Frosted is good, but 4-1 doesn\'t offer much value.

what are the chances of a 50 pace? I\'m not sure to be honest, but I absolutely hate this race if neither Mat nor AP run honest fractions early on.

I have a few ideas if they go 48 and a mile in 1:35 or so, but if that\'s only 50%, my value is already gone.

how fast is this pace going to be?

[magicnight]

Interviewed by Andy Serling at the draw yesterday, Pletcher indicated he wanted an honest pace and that Mat was the one to ensure one.

[miff]

Mike D,

Not sure of pace splits but on a normal fast track not sure AP can run that slow. Broke outward in last and has pulled off shoes early in two starts. Materiality was OP in last and isn\'t exactly a gate rocket ship in any of races prior to the derby.

Pace should be AP and Mat but how fast is very tough to gauge imo.


Mile

[Michael D.]

thanks for that, Bob.

[Michael D.]

Mike, one or two additional speed types would have made a world of difference. the odds of 2 going would have been much higher, and both Johnny V and Victor would have been forced to work a bit harder early to get clear running.

this race stinks.

[miff]

Frosted, Moob,Madeflucky, mini mini tactical vs Frammento,Verve,Keen Ice, not an ounce of early gas.

Could play out a match race between AP and Mat with them running away from the second tier somewhere down the backside.

[mjellish]

No one asked, but if you ask me I think you can rest assured of an honest pace.  There is a triple crown on the line, and AP is a front runner.  They are going to make him earn it.  I base this on every other Belmont I have seen with a Triple Crown on the line...  

Let me put it this way, I don\'t think anyone really wants to run with AP early.  But show me one other Belmont with a triple crown on the line where they let the Derby and Preakness winner have it all his own way on the front end with hopes he would fall apart on his own late.  You aren\'t going to find one.  AP is the horse to beat and EVERYONE knows it.

So lets say AP breaks on top, alone, and they get to the backstretch with a half in 49 change, you can better believe someone is going to make a mid race move and go up to pressure him ensuring a quicker 3rd fraction.  And if he doesn\'t break on top alone and two of them go in 49 and change I still say someone else is then going to make a move on the backstretch to ensure a quick 3rd or 4th fraction.  Made From Lucky and Frosted have shown early speed in other races and could do so again here if the fractions seem to0 slow early and the jocks ask them to go.  Even Mub could make a move.  And I also expect Frammento to be closer to the pace than usual as he\'s been training that way in the AM.

The percentage play is to say the pace will be honest or faster and I am banking on this.

[sekrah]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No one asked, but if you ask me I think you can
> rest assured of an honest pace.  There is a triple
> crown on the line, and AP is a front runner.  They
> are going to make him earn it.  I base this on
> every other Belmont I have seen with a Triple
> Crown on the line...  

Agreed completely. Belmont\'s with TCs on the line are FAST. Nobody is going to let AP walk away with a lead.

[Tavasco]

Drossel-Winner
First Winner as sire in 4th @ Pim @ 4.5 F