Belmont patterns

[elkurzhal]

Unlike the derby 7 of the last 8 Belmont winners ran new tops (by an average of 2.5 pts)  Union Rags paired his 2 to win the slowest (TG) Belmont since 2007.

The winners averaged 4 pre-Belmont starts at 3, and the new tops averaged 2.5 pts.

5 of the 8 had run a new top in one of their prior two races, the second top in the Belmont being a lot faster then they started their 3yo year.

Who fits?  Keen Ice and Frammento do.   Their tops coming in are as good as DaTara, Drosselmeyer, Ruler on Ice, and Palace Malice...

[toppled]

Here\'s the problem:  There are 3 horses coming in very fast, having run at least a -2.  If just one of them pairs his top, those horses in the 3-4 range will need about a 5 point new top to contend.  I can\'t see it happening.  The winner is American Pharoah, Frosted, or Materiality.

[Tavasco]

Not only do they need to jump 5-6 Thorograph points, they need to jump into negative numbers and that is exclusive territory.

The distance is very significant and stamina paramount but Frammento & Keen Ice simply cannot and will not (IMO) keep pace. I can imagine either running third or fourth because hard for me to picture two front runners going shoulder to shoulder for 1 + 1/2 miles no matter how gritty. One or the other fails.

Mub\'s pattern? Here is a horse most figure will not be compromised by the distance and would seem capable of a jump up considering no 3 y/o development. May not have much value in 2nd or 3rd. Unless AP is the pace player that fails.

[mjellish]

Tough thing with Mub is all too often horses shipping over cross continent run their best race right off the plane, then regress afterwards if not given ALOT of time.  I know that seems counter intuitive but that\'s how it seems to go.  Would be tempted to trust the trainer, but Mub looks very light to me even for a small framed horse.

[pizzalove]

Unless of course the top three don\'t run a negative which could easily happen.

[elkurzhal]

Toppled - every other race, every other day, I get ya.

The real problem is -2 at 1 1/8 have nothing to do with Belmont and 1 1/2.

Last years exacta horses came in with tops of 2 & 5, beating Wicked Strong (-1), Chrome (-2), & Ride on Curlin (-1.5).   what\'s so different about this year?

[sekrah]

Agreed.  There\'s a reason the Triple Crown hasn\'t been won in 300 years.  It\'s not because there weren\'t capable horses faster than the rest of the field.

Horses who can get the distance will be moving forward Saturday.  Horses who can\'t, will be moving backward. That\'s how you get Sarava, Da\'Tara, Palace Malice, Ruler On Ice, Drosselmeyer.

[Tavasco]

elkurzhal Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The real problem is -2 at 1 1/8 have nothing to do
> with Belmont and 1 1/2.
>
> Last years exacta horses came in with tops of 2 &
> 5, beating Wicked Strong (-1), Chrome (-2), & Ride
> on Curlin (-1.5).   what\'s so different about this
> year?

Well, I for one would say that the -3 horse will be far ahead of the +3 horse with 440 yds to go and that has something to do with it and that is a \"real problem.\"

And ....  IMO you are right if you want to score you have to bet against the popular opinions. Last year it worked. As it has repeatedly. Mad cap west coasters contend you\'ll go broke betting on 3/5 favorites, others say you\'ll go broke faster betting against them.

Betting your opinion is a great idea trying to convince the characters on this board of anything is an uphill battle. The opinion here is, as you must have read. 1) bet against AP @ 1/2 but mortgage the house @ 2/1.  2) Pass betting and enjoy the show. 3) buy tickets for ebay resale, 4) wait for Covello to speak and risk getting shut out.

The one thing which most of us have learned is - the unexpected is to be expected, often when least expected.

Good Luck To You!

[toppled]

What\'s so different this year is American Pharoah & Frosted have both run negative #s 3 different times.  The ones you cite had only 1 negative and at the time that negative could be viewed as a possible knockout since Chrome\'s was a 2 pt jump & Ride On Curlin\'s a 4.75 pt jump-both 3 weeks before the Belmont in the Preakness. Wicked Strong\'s lone negative was a huge jump up & he went 2 points back in his next race.  Of the 3 negatives, only Materiality fits the profile of the 3 failures (actually 4 if you count Medal Count\'s negative poly race).

[Tavasco]

Yes exactly, what he (toppled) said.

Apples vs oranges.