My Belmont bet

[dannyboy135]

I\'ve never felt stronger about a race.  I see the race as cold trifecta
Ap
Materiality
Frosted

What will $100 bring back ?  $600?

[Leamas57]

More than 6-1.  You really think one in every 7 or so bets in the pool will be that bet? I would say twice that for starters.

[ringato3]

If your strongest you\'ve ever felt about a race is the favorite winning and the only other 2 fast horses coming second and third (as the clear second and third choices), then you may have bigger issues than what it will pay...

But maybe a litte more than 600.  Maybe 1000.

Rob

[johnnym]

What not hit the all button for 4th?

[Dana666]

If you\'re doing that why not play a super with \"all\" in the last spot for a $20 super? And that triple would also pay more than 6.00 for a dollar; I\'d say 12.00 maybe. Too bad they don\'t have a high 5, the dinosaurs at NYRA apparently can\'t  get the software for that wager. That\'s a fun bet too when you\'re sure of the top finishers you can wheel the back spots and get lucky.

[Paolo]

Somebody help with my math. You like a cold tri in a 8 horse field.
If you take the advice given in two of the posts here and hit the all button for the super, the cost goes up by a factor of 5.
What are the chances the super pays better than 5 times the tri?

[jerry]

$0.00

[johnnym]

I understand your point,I figured their is a chance... I\'ve been wrong before..

[jerry]

The last time the fastest horse in this race actually won the race was Afleet Alex in 2005. You have to go back another 8 years before that to 1997 and Touch Gold to find the next one. And look how slow some of the past winners have been relative to the rest of the field coming into the race. Seems to be that having already run fast is actually a disadvantage in the Belmont. The race yields some funny results.

[sekrah]

First off, if anyone thinks any Tri in a TC race is going to pay only 6-1, then I don\'t know what to say to that. That is the most crazy thing I think I\'ve ever read on here. AP/Mat and AP/Frost exactas will probably pay 4-1 at minimum. Fair exacta odds based on their likely betting odds should be closer to 10-1 for both. I\'d be shocked if the Tri was any less than 20-1.

But I agree with jerry on the point that the Belmont, historically, has been an awful race to just play the fastest horses, and cold tris with the top 3 betting choices are probably one of the lowest EV plays you can possible play in any race.

[jerry]

I\'m betting AP doesn\'t hit the exacta. That\'s why I like exactas over triples. I do think he could hit the tri which kills that price.

[ringato3]

Sek,

Zero chance that Tri pays $40 for $2.

Not that I care, because I won\'t be playing it.  Your exacta estimates seem right 4-1 or so.  So how would you expect the ONLY other fast horse in the race, who will be only other single digit odds horse, to \"juice\" the exacta by 5x!!  ($4 to $20)

No.

But like I said, I am not playing it, and you are saying you like Keen Ice, so neither of use has skin in the game.......

Rob

[sekrah]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sek,
>
> Zero chance that Tri pays $40 for $2.
>

Totally disagree. The only way it\'s not is if there\'s a scratch or two to the others. The larger the pool gets, the less like you\'re going to get an dirt cheap price on favorites in the verts.  Point Given won at 6/5 with 3rd and 2nd choice coming in 2-3 and paid 38-1. This isn\'t the 7th race at Mountaineer on a Tuesday night.

[TGJB]

Exact as will be around $10 each, tri around 20-25 for 2. If we find out I won\'t be cashing.

[sekrah]

Side bet: I\'ll put a grand on that $2 tri being greater than $25 if it hits. Scratches void.