My Belmont bet

[ringato3]

Exactly what i said, 10 to 1 odds or so.

Since TGJB agreed, I must be wrong.

Sorry Sekrah, it will pay $75 for $2.....

Rob

[TGJB]

The average tri (forgetting even the takeout difference) is exacta times number of remaining horses (which I thought was 5, it\'s 6), so 60 if the exacta is ten. You then adjust for the relative price of the third horse. Whichever of those is third will be way shorter than anyone else.

Another way to do it is, what price the third horse would be against the others if the first two were not in the pool. Which in this case will not be much higher than even money. So if the exacta is 10, and horse would be 3/2 (at most) tri would pay 25.

[sekrah]

I never claimed it would pay $75 for two. I think it\'d be somewhere in $40-$60 range for $2 for that combo.

Zenyatta won 6-horse fields at 1/9 and had some 20-1 trifectas.

A.There\'s no super-dead 100-1 shots to completely toss out of your exotics. One can even make a reasonable case for the two longest shots.

B.There\'s no stand-out second choice, both Frosted and Mat will go off around 5-1.

C.There\'s just too many mid-range horses like Mub, ToV, MFL that will be taking money to make it any cheaper than 20-1.

[ringato3]

Sek,

You are WAY off base.

But I hope we don\'t get to see it.

Heavy 1-2 favorite
Two Clear middle range 5-1 shots

Longshots at 10-1 + the rest.

Smallish 8 horse field

1-2 over 5-1 over 5-1 is about $20

Good luck

Rob

[miff]

Another issue which players should not have to concern themselves with. Technology is there to show the possible payoffs in all pools, the jackoffs just don\'t show them all.Know we are speaking before the pools open.

Would lean to the TRI paying a little more than expected for 3 favs given the enormous pool size.


In a first/last pool, one entry only allowed, the selection for last much tougher process.

[TGJB]

AND... if someone is getting into the pools, the place to do it (after the wire and before it\'s official) is in the ones which are not there for the public to see. I would like to see a study of the actual vs. expected relationship between exacta and tri payoffs throughout the year, track by track.

[miff]

JB,

The lightweights are reluctant to show the info you mention.

NYRA talked about it, decided against it for one specific reason. Attached to this data shows the inflow/ouflow of settlements to and from all the hubs that make up the pools.It is evident that the bots(computer program rebaters) are killing the regular players based on the strong $$ outflow to hubs handling the bots.

This was a mini scandal back when Barry K Schwartz was NYRA CEO, Charlie Hayward was concerned.It\'s a powder keg imo,a few tracks, after seeing the outflow,shut out the bots.It appears that up to 20 % of handle is bots.

Mike

[joemama]

Side bet anyone?

[sekrah]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sek,
>
> You are WAY off base.
>
> But I hope we don\'t get to see it.
>
> Heavy 1-2 favorite
> Two Clear middle range 5-1 shots
>
> Longshots at 10-1 + the rest.
>
> Smallish 8 horse field
>
> 1-2 over 5-1 over 5-1 is about $20
>
> Good luck
>
> Rob


You couldn\'t be more wrong, sorry.  Find me an example of an odds-on fav in an 8-horse field, with two 5-1\'s finishing 2nd/3rd,with 3 more horses shorter than 20-1, that pays a 10-1 trifecta.  Just one example.  You won\'t.

[TGJB]

They also don\'t even have one type of info I asked them about-- structure of tickets that cashed. They need to look for dummy tickets, the kind of things the BC kids did, that can be easily altered afterwards, electronically.

[sekrah]

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=MTH&raceDate=08/02/2009&cy=USA&rn=13

2009 Haskell.

Rachel A. 1-2
Summer Bird 4-1
Munnings 5-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Duke of Mischief 19-1
Atomic Rain 20-1
Bunker Hill 48-1

7 horse field and the trifecta paid 12-1.

Add another 15-1 shot to this field and you have roughly the composite of the Belmont. That one extra horse adds significantly more money to the exotic pools and you\'re likely get at least 20-1 on the same combo.  Also, Frammento is probably a far more appealing exotic use in the Belmont than what Bunker Hill was in that race.

The only way it\'s less than 20-1 Saturday is if there\'s a scratch.

[miff]

http://www.wired.com/2015/06/science-says-american-pharoah-wont-win-triple-crown/

[FrankD.]

Mike, Mike, Mike,

You have way too much time on your hands

[TGJB]

If the one other horse is an out price-- which it has to be or the odds of the first three will be longer-- the tri will pay only slightly more than the 12-1 in that race. There will be six for the third slot instead of five, with that one being many many  times the price of the actual third finisher. Might add 10%, tops. So instead of the $25 I predicted you might get $29.

Look-- let\'s say AP gets 50% of the action, the other two 15 each. That leaves 20 for the rest. So for the third spot, 65 (50+15) is already out of play because they finished first and second. For the third spot it\'s 15 to win 20, odds of 20/15, on what the exacta pays.

The AVERAGE exacta if AP pays $3 is 3x7, $21. With the overwhelming second and third choices, maybe $10. If so tri comes out 20/15 times $10, plus $10.

[miff]

Frank,

How long can you look at an 8 horse field with 5 slugs in there?Weather looks ok!



Mike