brucculeri Wrote:
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> Thanks for the response. TG speaking he\'s the co
> fastest horse in the race ( JM has run as fast).
> Pairing up neg # with 7 weeks since last. Gets in
> at 114 lbs. Darby Dan on the female side. 3 nice
> turf breezes. Gets JV. 20-1 morning line.
> Pletcher may not be the most popular trainer on
> this board but he knows how to spot them. I don\'t
> know if I would call him a sucker but there
> probably is worse 20-1 shots tomorrow to play.
> Just my 2 cents..
He seems to me definitely playable....the type of horse I would like to play to be in my exotics, but also don\'t want to be killed by if he misses.
I like the fact he broke his maiden on synthetic. The blinkers off is a mixed signal. He was without blinkers in his maiden breaker on synthetic, but he also got a bore in which they obviously thought they were addressing when he moved forward with blinkers on next out. However, it was his first out as a 2yo and 2yos do all sorts of screwy things when they don\'t get what is up, so the bore in may not have required addressing or was addressed just by experience not by the blinkers. Obviously, Pletcher thinks he is fixing something by going blinkers off, and he could be right or he could be creating a new issue.
On the turfiness, he sure seems like he should turf, but that doesn\'t guarantee he repeats his best figs on the surface. I feel like certain track\'s dirt is sort of turfy and Tampa is one of those, so the fact he could get a good figure shipping into Tampa (a tough place to ship into) is positive for what he will do on turf.
Another concern you need to keep in mind is distance. One way to look at this horse is that 10 panels is beyond his scope and he needs shorter distances. Unfortunately, in his only efforts beyong 9 panels, he had three straight excuses -- a horrendous ride by Rosario in the Derby, a terrible trip in the Preakness, and in the Belmont he was probably done in by a first 6 furlongs in under 1:13 (not to mention 3rd race in 5 weeks issues).
The light weight is nice, but you also have to wonder if any of that benefit is going to be given up by going wide the first turn.
Don\'t mean to be too negative here. The price is right on this horse. My best guess is he either runs well and then fades the last furlong or else he runs a fig very competitive with the best figs in the race and then it will depend on his trip compared to the other\'s trips (although he gets a weight advantage here).
