I am going to disagree with the general assertion that the Met Mile is wide open. (it wasn\'t your assertion, so please no \"self pity\" type post needed, like \"feeling like Rich....) Have heard a bunch of handicappers say it is wide open.
I like to \"invent\" price horses and reasons to bet against short priced horses, but just don\'t see it in this race.
First off, there isn\'t a lot of speed in the race. Unusually so, for the Met Mile. Bayern and Private Zone are the only horses with gas and if one clears, they could be gone. Tonalist has won what 4 or 5 states at Belmont and is the fastest horse in the race? Loves track and is fast and his big figure came first time 4 year old, when he could be stronger and doesn\'t have to bounce.
Shocked if one of those 3 horses doesn\'t win. Yes, Bayern is slowish on TG, but his positional speed and ability to get good trips because of it make him strong here. Also, his race at 7 furlongs on this day last year was nothing short of awesome and the TG figure understates how good it was (because he set a wicked pace and saved ground).
Wicked Strong poor this year at a time he should be improving. Still a name horse, so a terrible underlay at 6-1. Bay of Plenty, at weights, technically looks like a fit here, but his figures were earned with softer paces against tin cans, not going to be able to get the same soft trip with these horses, so expecting a backward move. Honor Code could not have been worse last time and another \"name horse\", so he will be under his true value odds.
Shocked Silver if you get 5-1 on Private Zone. Think you will be lucky to get the 7-2 ML, he should be second choice.
Good luck, but I think there are WAY better races to hunt for prices.
Rob
