Belmont Pick 4

[FrankD.]

Races 2-5

The all stakes 8-11 is simply too tough, too competitive in the Met and Manhattan to spread with a TC winner or even Frosted as my only other conclusion. The risk of a large spread ticket does not seem worth the reward to me. I\'m in agreement with mjellish\'s pace scenario cooking the foundation lacking Materiality who ran the kind of number early in his 3 yr old season that could be a KO. I don\'t see a D\'tara or that type this year. Miff went to a Chinese restaurant and got a fortune cookie that stated its not the year of the slug!

Race 2:
Gold Shield & Wisecracker as Day of Fury\'s huge Baffert to Jacobson jump up had better not be repeated.

Race 3: I\'m between this one and the 13th as my favorites of the day, heck I may even stay for the Goo Goo Dolls I like the 13th that much! Competitive Edge inside Cinco Charlie may be an all time pressure cooker, I don\'t see JV taking back and going around him? Ready for Rye sits the pocket poised to pick up the pieces and Classy Class jumps forward off his pairs and the un fuego McLaughlin barn to pass by them all in the lane at a price. Boxing Rye and Classy in the exacta as well.

Race 4: The Covello as Power Alert is very tough to go past and will get 80% of my ticket solo. Unbridled\'s Note a price and back turf #\'s with Something Extra
because P-Dub told me even Mikey can\'t go DAT wide on one turn:) just kidding Paul. Exacta\'s and tries the same way.

Race 5:
Untapable is not the fastest, she spots weight and will be way over bet; I still can\'t toss her in the sequence and will use her with Wedding Toast.

The 13th:
I\'m in agreement with Silver Charms earlier assessment of Social Inclusion and Chad excels first off a long layoff and could not get it done with him, blinks on, another optional claimer vs a stake tells me he is still searching to straighten out this mishandled mess from last year. Matterhorn is poised for his 4 yr old break through back and forth with Ness and Navarro pressing with the Horn on top. The juice derby at the end of a mega pool day without the stakes testing standards oh my!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[ringato3]

Frank D.

First off, good luck.  

Secondly, gonna provide a few thoughts.

RAce 2  -  Gonna use the two you mentioned, but gonna add Tiz Shea D.  A bit slow, but some excuses.  MAybe she gets a good trip this time.

RAce 3 -  I wish the bet I could make is that you got the pace scenario wrong.  No way Competitive Edge gets the front.  Ready for Rye a rocket ship and draws inside.  He will be the one to fight with Cinco Charlie early.  Think the \"other pletcher\" will appreciate the cutback off a weird race in the Peter Pan. 3 deep again for me.  CE, R for R and the \"other pletcher\".

Race 4  - Have to use Jim Covello\'s horse on number power, but would have to disagree with TGJB board assertion last week that JC is a standout here.  At 5 furlongs I would agree.  This is 20% further and there is other speed.  Turf firmish but not the turf course from last week before the rain, which his horse would have loved.  Aged is slow, but may trip out if speed over develops.  Something extra is fast, likes the 6 furlongs and has as good a shot as JC\'s horse at twice the price?  Spring to the sky has figures but has to work out a trip.  With Castellano on board, that gives him a shot.  Mosler as ML favorite is a bad ML.  no shot the horse is favored from that post.  Also won\'t use the horse from that slot.  4 deep.

Race 5.  No untapable.  Wedding Toast and Princees violoet.

Good luck

Rob

[TGJB]

I bear an indeterminate amount of responsibility for the late p4 being tough. The racing office helped with updates of the probables for the seminar, which was crucial given the time element. In return asked which races were most wide open, since they had guaranteed minimums to hit with multis. I told them the Bklyn, Met, Manhattan, Acorn, not that they couldn\'t have figured it out themselves. Also asked for Met sheets, not sure how much they used them to weight race.

[miff]

Frank,

Swing away, good luck, thread lightly early, could be ugly chalky.
Just got Welsch and was surprised he\'s very luke warm on Materiality and Frosted,shocking he has two slugs in front of them Verve and Keen Ice.

Mike

[Wrongly]

Frank

Love that 3rd race and it might be the kiss of death but I\'m with ya on Ready for Rye / Classy X.  

Belmont hoping Materiality goes for lead and AP battles, that opens up box cars Frosted, Madefromlucky, Mubtaahij, Keen Ice tri box.  Still think AP gets 2nd. So playing that lightly.

Most interesting race is Met Mile.  Weights made this super tough key to Pk4, forced to spread.  Costly ticket but if AP loses it might be monstrous.  Willing to take that risk.

Saratoga not far off, making the trip for one weekend again.  Best of luck to everyone!

[jp702006]

Late pick 4;
Race 8)2/3/4/6/7/10
     9)1/2/4/5/6
    10)2/5/6/7/10
    11)6/7
Good luck to all!

Patrick

[jp702006]

What inquiring minds really want to know is are you going to be betting against AP like you have other triple crown hopefuls???

[TGJB]

Seminar. Analysis. Both.

[jp702006]

I purchased both and thought that was your stance. After reading some of your previous posts about past triple crown attempts, I was just curious if you were as excited to bet against this one as others. I love your products and your insight.

[Fairmount1]

Very curious how your seminar does for the Belmont.  After seeing the TVG Thorograph advertising (aired on HRTV so both TVG and HRTV viewers saw this I presume) as part of their Belmont Handicapping Proram and with the Triple Crown on the line, I\'m expecting huge numbers for you.

[Deadrockstar]

Well, with the minimum P4 at $0.50 you can spread as far as you like and get paid if AP loses.

Though I am curious whether AP will be 2/5 or 3/5 in multi-race bets esp. since so many sharpies are saying he finally may be the one. I\'m going to play him like he\'s any other horse in hopes i get my money back if he wins but score if he loses

[TGJB]

Looked like about 4/5 based on doubles with several horses, not just the 2m winner.

[TGJB]

It\'s selling well, not as well as the Derby. I think we get a lot of civilians who don\'t do their own handicapping for that one. Also, we\'re charging more.

We\'ll probably do it again. The time element is a bitch. With Derby and BC we know who\'s running well in advance. Also, there are several really competitive races where I couldn\'t just do 3-4 horses and get out.

[jp702006]

Thanks for the hard work. Any thoughts on doing a seminar for the Belmont 4th of July program?

[TGJB]

How many stakes?