Belmont Pick 4

[jp702006]

I\'m not sure how many stakes they have that day. I believe it\'s 4 or 5. I\'m sure miff or ringato know. I believe that is the day that Lady Eli is running.

[Deadrockstar]

I bought the TG seminar and am going to (probably) roll largely with you.

I am attached to Tepin, however, who I crushed on Derby Day thru old fashioned DRF handicapping. Don\'t think he\'s as bouncy as you do

Oh, and if you follow Watchmaker on Twitter, you know how he ABC\'d the huge early P4 at Belmont last Saturday for $34. I cave-manned it for $48 and got the $3,500. I was at my kid\'s karate class and had Tepin money to bet.

[TGJB]

Cause cavemen don\'t know their ABC\'s?

[P-Dub]

Nice analysis Frank, and yes.  My guy Mikey has only 1/2 the chance of going wide sprinting as he would in a route. My thoughts on the early P4:

Race 2: The chalky Wisecracker a must use, even though he\'s 50/50 (according to Thoro-Pattern)to run his good one. If he does, he will be very tough. Good rest into this has me thinking he fires. Do we have to use Gold Shield??  I know, never toss the fastest number, but he did it at GP in his only start there. Does his pattern suggest he runs close to it? Pretty isolated for me.  As Miff would say, its a pretty ground loaded figure. I\'m tossing him, as I think Wisecracker will be tough to beat. I\'m using Gridley Here, who unfortunately packs high weight. He can close in a race where there should be a decent pace to run at, and hopefully saves ground. 2nd 4yo start should improve and if he jumps to a new top can be right there. 15/1 ML offers value for the risk. Tiz Shea D gets a weight break and can move forward while Smart Transition has marched forward every start. I can\'t play them all, think these 2 get the minors.

Race 3: Ready For Rye, Two Weeks Off, and Classy Class. Rye is fastest and with the weight break I\'ll take the longer priced Pletcher instead of the 4/5 ML CE. Agree with your pace scenario and think CC has a solid chance of mowing them down late with a forward move/weight break. Tossing the 4/5 ML horse.

Race 4: Power Alert a must use, but there are a few very interesting ones at nice prices. You\'ve mentioned Unbridled\'s Note, that\'s one of them. Summation Time is a 4YO that broke thru first start this year. These horses can improve in their next start, he gets a nice weight break also (about a point), and it looks like he clearly prefers sprinting than routing. If he goes forward a couple points, combined with the weight break, he can be right there at a square price. Very similar sheet to Tepin, a horse I hit on Derby Day. Something Extra and Spring To The Sky are competitive, and it looks like underneath should be their ceiling. Those 2 can certainly spice up the verticals.  Helwan is a foreign horse getting 1st Lasix. A bit slow on TG, 1st start 4YO can certainly jump forward.  How many times have we seen slower Foreign horses get Lasix and outrun their previous numbers? I am not letting this one beat me. If Power Alert backs up just a bit off his last, then any of these horses mentioned can win. I think this is a spread race.

Race 5: Princess Violet, House Rules, and Wedding Toast. Untapable has run 2 races this year that are slower than every race she ran as a 3YO.  That concerns me, and at 2/5 ML I\'m tossing. If she beats me, she beats me. The thing that bothers me a little about Wedding Toast is that she reacts to big races. Every negative has been followed by a 2 pt regression. If she does it again, both Princess Violet and House Rules can beat her.


$.50 P4: 2,5/1,4,6/1,5,6,7,8,11/2,3,5 = $54

I\'m looking for the last 2 races to produce prices, and even if I get just one, knocking out both odds on horses should yield a decent return. The ticket is bigger than I wanted, and I obviously need to get past the first race. If I can do that, I think I have a decent chance of getting some prices home the next 3 races.......

......and if I get knocked out, there\'s always the Pick 3.

[Tavasco]

Frank D, P-Dub, just being social after being so embarrassingly anti social earlier. I thought I had the Waltzing Matilda exacta and snapped when I realize I had been photo\'d out. Then saw the post.

Richiebee - I finally understand your reference to death & taxes like a rock fall on me inevitably.

Great 1st game in OAK P-Dub hope you were in the crowd? Maybe got some TV time?

Anyway, there is a horse #10 Channel Marker 4th Race who was making up ground on Power Alert in his last. (may have caught him @ 6F) I think it is interesting that he ships in for this with a trainer that doesn\'t ship much and succeeds less. But he seems to have never been better and boasts a 20/1 m/l. He\'ll come late has to get a trip so just suggesting y\'all take a second look at him c/b useful (like many) in a vertical.

Good Luck Guys on what should be a great day. Australia complete, Now I nap.

[joemama]

Nothing like a little humor in the morning. What a wonderful day for a walk in the park.

[joemama]

I was bitchin about having to be multilingual, now I have to learn the ABC\'s of caveman.

[P-Dub]

Thoughts on the rest of the card:

Race 6: I think Micromanage pops a good one and will be tough to beat. Tough heat to figure, you could make a case for several horses. Being part of an entry may knock the price down.  Its a mile and a half, hard to take a smallish price here.  Can see this being a spread race in horizontals. Can\'t really argue with the seminar picks either. I don\'t have a warm and fuzzy about this race, but Micro is the pick.

Race 7: Danzatrice is interesting here. Under the radar at Parx, connections somewhat low profile.  First race this year a new top, followed by another forward move in her first route race last out. In a race with plenty of speed, her outside post should  put her in a stalking position out of traffic. With the long run down the backstretch, if she doesn\'t lose too much ground she is just as fast as any in here. 15/1 ML a pretty square price. Probably my key, and Curalina another at 10/1ML that is just as fast too.

Race 8: The horse ridden by Mike Smith is a great price, gets weight, and is as fast as any in here. Has been a victim of wide trips, nothing would be sweeter than watching him give her a great trip from the 2 hole. If she saves some ground and wins.......well, I\'ll be sure to let you all know about it.  Filimbi also a strong contender. I put these 2 ahead of the rest in an excellent betting race.

Race 9: Tough race, I\'ll use Private Zone and Bayern.

Race 10: Big Blue Kitten my key, using the seminar horses underneath. Legendary and Slumber on horizontals.

Race 11: Frosted.

.50P4: 2,3,4,6/1,7/5,6,7/6,8 = $24

Race 12: Depeche Chat and Taghleeb have solid numbers. Town Extension useable too. Tough to separate those 3, tote will point me somewhere. Will take a stand against the 9/5 Dubai horse. Right now, I\'ll go with TE.

Race 13: Green Gratto should gun from the rail.  Speed of the speed, saves ground and is fast enough to win.

[mjellish]

They\'re not very good at Rock, paper, scissors either.

[TGJB]

I can tell you for a fact Smith will be instructed to save ground in the Just A Game. Which doesn\'t mean he will.

[miff]

Belmont runner ups to get \"acknowledged\" was a silver ribbon, now a trophy of sorts.Imagine AP getting nosed and Zayat stands there to get trophy for being second.

....Frank, gotta agree and upgrade NYRA as the undisputed worst managed major venue

[mjellish]

Agree that the late Pick 4 is tough sequence, but I\'m going to give it a shot.  As much as I hate to say it, I am of the opinion that AP is going to win the Belmont.  I want to play against him, but I don\'t think I\'ve seen a horse train this way and run this way during the triple crown sequence.  And to me, he actually looks better now than he did before the Derby, which is really saying something.

So assuming a normal track, my plan is to single AP on the bottom of the Pick 4 and try to get 2 price horses home in the other 3 races.  I won\'t have a single ticket that has more than AP and one other favorite on it.  So if the favorites do well I won\'t.  

I think Ball Dancing is a vulnerable favorite in the Just A Game as she\'s never run fast enough to win this compared to the rest of the field and has been getting outworked by Stephanie\'s Kitten in the AM.  I also think Filimbi is a little off her game right now.  Of the price horses, I love Sandiva\'s line.  She\'s clearly running faster as a 4 year old, had a poor break in her last, but if she cycles back to her number 2 back she\'s going to be right there because she gets in light and should save ground.

The Met is one of my favorite races every year. As far as the favorites go, I\'m hoping Tonalist bounces here.  If he doesn\'t he\'s going to be right there.  Private Zone has obvious merits, but seems to have an on/off pattern of races.  If he follows that pattern again it would be time for him to back up a few points here and I\'m hoping that he does. Interesting that after Bayern\'s last race, Baffert brought the colt back and worked him out of the gate 6F. Trainer obviously trying to push the right buttons on this one and he may fire his best now, but he\'s also going to have to run his best number ever to beat this field.  Wicked strong seems to be sitting on a good one and probably gets ignored a bit in the betting. Who knows what Honor Code is going to do.  To me he\'s better at 1 turn, so this race should be perfect for him.  But Shug keeps saying he\'s a two turn horse.  Both of the Kiaran runners will be long prices and he\'s getting tops out almost everything he puts out there right now.

The Manhattan is probably going to come down to trips.  Twilight Eclipse certainly can win but I don\'t think he offers much value considering he often finds a way to take 2nd.  Same thing for Finnegans Wake as far as value goes.  He likes to win races but will probably have to run a new top to win.  I like Big Blue Kitten in this spot a fair amount as he gets a few pounds from the top few and should be able to drop in behind the speed and save ground.  He\'s also run a number that\'s fast enough to win this at least 4 times.  Going to have some tickets with him singled.  War Dancer may be sitting on a big one here and has to be used at the weights.  Jack Milton is certainly fast enough to win here, but he will really have to run big to win from the 11 post unless he gets lucky and saves ground somehow, so you have to factor that into how much you use him.  Of the price horses, there\'s been some talk on the board about General A-r od making his turf debut.  He will be a decent price so I can\'t blame anyone for taking him.  He\'s not really a front running type, but I think his best shot may be to try to wire the field.  He\'s got some breeding support the move to the lawn and he\'s been holding his own with Jack Milton in the AM.  And I agree that Slumber has a shot here if he gets lucky with the trip and fires his best as he gets in really light and has Ortiz on him.

In the Belmont, I plan to make a vertical play with AP singled on top and will need Frammento or Keen Ice to hit the board in order to cash.  Will use them mostly with Frosted as everything Kiaran is sending out right now is running well and I\'m hearing the barn is very quietly confident about this guy today.  And I\'m sticking my earlier statement that I don\'t like Mat in this spot.

Let\'s hope for the best.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> I bear an indeterminate amount of responsibility
> for the late p4 being tough. The racing office
> helped with updates of the probables for the
> seminar, which was crucial given the time element.
> In return asked which races were most wide open,
> since they had guaranteed minimums to hit with
> multis. I told them the Bklyn, Met, Manhattan,
> Acorn, not that they couldn\'t have figured it out
> themselves. Also asked for Met sheets, not sure
> how much they used them to weight race.

Looks like the early races have turned out a bit difficult too.

Nice prices, anyone get any of them??

[richiebee]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> Anyway, there is a horse #10 Channel Marker 4th
> Race who was making up ground on Power Alert in
> his last. (may have caught him @ 6F) I think it is
> interesting that he ships in for this with a
> trainer that doesn\'t ship much and succeeds less.
> But he seems to have never been better and boasts
> a 20/1 m/l. He\'ll come late has to get a trip so
> just suggesting y\'all take a second look at him
> c/b useful (like many) in a vertical.

I do not know if this was an opinion or an assertion, but good call.

[dcost328]

Channel Marker....but thats it. d\'oh. hopefully next 2 legs of P3 are decent...