Beyer Not Impressed

[miff]

AP with a 105 Beyer(neg TG.-.75) Another service has it TG neg -1.75) Looking at the  Brooklyn,the slow Belmont pace and fast surface,Beyer looks solid,JB will have it faster if he goes off the horses.

[beazley]

That range of number looks reasonable and fits with his prior races.  The way he layed down his final quarter pulling away from Frosted was really nice but track was glib and Keen Ice was running just as fast late.  Moobie rang a better race than Derby and if AP is -2 that puts Moobie around +2. Seems reasonable. Will be interested to see the number but he clearly ran within himself.

[miff]

Beaz,

AP ran the first half in 1.13.41 on a fast surface. Pretty tough to make up that time.

Would have been interesting to see what he could have run if he went faster earlier.

Mike

[beazley]

Totally agree. Last 6F in 1:13.24 faster than first 6F. Definitely not optimal energy distribution.

He clearly has more stamina than any others in crop. Pedigree smedigree.

[TGJB]

AP carried 9 pounds more than the Bklyn winner. VE Day will get a big number. If you do those races together so will AP.

[miff]

Beyer PF w/weight adj still only 107(TG -1.25)

[TGJB]

I\'m not relating it to the Beyer. I\'m relating it to the Bklyn. Without really looking, AP has to get about 4 points better than the other winner if track stayed the same. Frosted about 2 points worse than AP.

[beazley]

I know you haven\'t done the analysis. If AP gets Neg 3, Keen Ice is going to get a big fig (better than Frosted)and Moobie then runs a 2 point top also.  Could be the right answer though. De Kock said his horse was much better coming into Belmont than the Derby.  He made a big threatening move but couldn\'t sustain.  With Lasix he might\'ve run a zero.

[miff]

Will be very interesting at what Rags makes it. Brooklyn winners last was fast on their stuff,going in.Sure they will tie Bklyn/Belmont.

[Boscar Obarra]

Speaking of not impressed, is anyone impressed with Beyers handicapping for the last 20 years?

[TGJB]

Bklyn winner\'s last was neg 2 1/2 on ours. He didn\'t pair up. (Or if he did, VE Day ran as fast as Honor Code. Right after the Met Vic Stauffer called and said, \"We just saw the first negative 9\").

[miff]

Straight Beyer had Honor Code TG -3. Watched one time only but seemed HC very wide coming out of turn but not that wide the whole turn, huge pace set up in front of him.

[TGJB]

Assuming Tonalist paired HC neg 4-5 depending on relative ground.

[firmturf]

I thought Tonalist lost more ground than Honor Code. HC at least stayed inside as long as he could, Tonalist was parked out the entire trip (and spotted weight).

[phil23]

Just down and dirty off trakus ground (which yes, definitely can be wrong), with weight and margin, had it HC running 0.15 pts faster than Tonalist - who has turned into one seriously fast friggin horse, runner up yesterday not withstanding. So much so that the evil bastards on the other side of the counter won\'t even take a real bet on him. Tried to get on stan james 20:1 BCC price for him late last night. They offered me 1/5th of ask instead. Jeez a whole double sawbuck...thanks for your time High Street.