Beyer Not Impressed

[TGJB]

Yeah. But if I read that correctly (a VERY big if) he was using different angles for each path.

Rob, figure making posts are not clutter. There was a bunch of stuff over the weekend that was. And I\'m being kind.

[dlf]

Ha! I knew you were doing it to bust his chops, Richie, but it did get me thinking. And the arguments do not seem unreasonable. But with my 12th grade physics a distant memory, I\'m not the one to make the argument.

[TGJB]

Check out the series of assumptions in his second paragraph. And he\'s using \"his energy program\" to do the computations.

[TGJB]

Re weight.


https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,11891,93675#msg-93675

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What we are measuring is in effect final time for
> each horse, normalized for weight carried, track
> speed, distance of race, and distance travelled.
> You are free to decide how the time was earned.


This.

It doesn\'t matter what data you use, its all a matter of interpretation. Its why 5 people looking at a race can come to 5 different conclusions. OR, at times agree.

Phony wide, ground loaded figures, pace, etc... Each user of the data can decide for themselves how to \"adjust\" the figure, or how much of an impact it had.

[dlf]

I hear you on the assumptions, and I agree. But it seems pretty indisputable that different race tracks have different configurations and angles of banking on turns. It would be nice to get a scientific opinion on how/if this may affect distance traveled relative to different paths, independent of biomechanics, conformation etc.

[TGJB]

Question one is, if the banking is the same for all paths, why would it affect one path differently than another?

[beazley]

Weighing in late. The ground loss is based on geometry with no dispute.  Theoretically you can run faster on a larger radius turn then you can on a shorter one.  The larger the radius the closer to a straight line.  This is empirical. Go out and ride your bike and you can go faster if the turn radius is larger. Whether a single path makes that makes of a difference is disputable and no way can compensate for the ground loss. Watch runners in a long distance track race. They all want to race close to the inside lane to save ground. Now watch a 200 or 400 meter race where they stagger the starts based on ground loss.  The fastest runner wants the middle lane. Why not the first lane. He/she can see every other runner which seems ideal but it\'s clear you can run faster in a middle lane with a larger turn radius. This advantage would extend to the outer lanes also but then you have the disadvantage of not seeing the other runners.

[MonmouthGuy]

TG sees it similar to Beyer

[miff]

Yes, both JB and Beyer not figuratively impressed, so to speak. Beyer standing firm that AP\'s TC figs 105, 102, 105 nothing special(they\'re not) Except for fast TG ground loaded derby fig, AP not THAT fast.....yet.All services but one agree on AP Belmont fig except one which is faster by 1.5 TG points.

TC figs can be eyed with some suspicion imo, derby day surface was strange as was Preakness.Belmont day surface way fast( plus 68 or 4 lenghts)

AP being heavily courted by Monmouth for Haskell along with Frosted. Seems Zayat and Baffy up for $150k personal bonus for winning TC($75k ea)

[MonmouthGuy]

Met figure for Tonalist impressive.  If he didn\'t react to his Westchester #, he should be scary the rest of year. Or do we need to see this form away from Belmont?

[TGJB]

The 1 1/2 races made for some problems. Lots of \"X\'s\" in the Brooklyn (distance?), but also on the day in general (see Acorn). Testing?

I\'ll go back and look at the Derby after more have run back, but Keen Ice and Mut look WAY better the way I did it.

Not ground loaded. Ground factored (or adjusted). Loaded is the other guys.

[miff]

Just saying AP\'s derby pure speed figure not impressive vs performance figure.Agree derby could be slower if you wished.That would have just as much credibility as the way you did it.

[TGJB]

Not as much so far, based on the way Mut and especially KI ran. But it\'s early. I still don\'t have enough to be sure about the Tampa race.

Couple of years ago I gave a Kiaran sprinter neg 5 at GP, wasn\'t until Saratoga I was sure I got it right.

[mjellish]

Not trying to schmooz.  But this is exactly why your dats is the best.  You watch, you care, and have courage enough to admit when wrong and adjust.