Is it safe for me to start posting again or....

[covelj70]

...will people still try to criticize me for saying that AP can get whatever distance he wants because of how well he moves?

lol

Hopefully the post mortem on this triple crown will be that people need not to just look at the numbers on a page (i.e. only TG figures and patterns) or just the names on a page (i.e. only the pedigree) and understand that horses that run so efficiently and athletically can break the arbitrary rules creates by the people who only look at names and numbers on a page.

Patterns and pedigree don\'t mean too much when horses move like that

now, unfortunately, most horses don\'t move like that (in fact almost none do) but the ones that do aren\'t bound by the same rules as the others so actually looking up from the pieces of paper once in awhile can really make a difference.

[TGJB]

Whaaa?

[covelj70]

what does \"whaaa?\" mean?

[HP]

Based on Saturday you should be just about the only one posting.  You should have your own board!  

HP

[TGJB]

I don\'t even know where to start. Nobody I know used numbers on a page to tell you the horse couldn\'t get the distance. Nobody ONLY uses numbers on a page. There are no rules, and percentages (which there are) are not arbitrary. Also, you are using a PURELY anecdotal (as in one anecdote) incident to establish a relationship between the way a horse moves (in your opinion, by the way) and one result-- as you should know from your profession, correlation is not causation.

You know I love you, but that one was kind of unbelievable...

[pres711]

As a longtime user of the TG\"S and avid fan of the sport I commend and admire your early insight that AP was special and would likely be THE ONE.  Congratulations on staking out a position and sticking to it.  I would also like to thank you for sharing your backstretch insights with the Board, knowing that he was working well put Slumber on top of my list and couples with great analysis from our host and other posters on this board, especially M. Jellish\'s analysis on MAT. made for an even more special culmination to a memorable triple crown run.  I am old enough that I sometimes wondered if I would ever see another triple crown winner.  Let\'s hope he stays sound and will highlight a memorable Classic in November. Thanks to all posters on the best Board (and best product) in the business.  tony

[covelj70]

ok then, I guess I got my answer as to whether it was safe to start posting again!

I will go back into my shell now..lol

I typed up a whole response just now but I deleted it, it\'s not worth the argument.

[johnnym]

I understand your post quite well. I also 100% agree with it..
TG is a tool much like Brisnet,Haskin,Bruno,and any other pieces of information that helps me win a race. However their is no better tool than my 2 eyes..

[TGJB]

It\'s completely safe to post. Just remember words have meanings. A lot of people have been making assertions here and holding up one (or less) anecdotes as proof of something. And I don\'t like my product or me used as a straw man.

[covelj70]

you know that I only use your figures.  I don\'t even look at another set of data

but I do combine what I think is the best data (TG) with my own view of how a horse is doing and that\'s where I try to make my decisions

just because a horse supposedly bounced in the Preakness in which he won under wraps by 10, doesn\'t mean I am going to play him to continue to go backwards in the next race when he was training as well as I\'ve ever seen a horse train before the Belmont.

Needless to say, the best opportunities for me (i.e. the ones where I feel most confident taking big stands) are the ones where the TG data and how a horse is doing both tell the same story.

listen, we may never see a horse that moves this well again in our lifetime so this is all probably a mute point.  Hope that\'s not the case but it could be.

[ringato3]

Jim,

First off, great call on Slumber, as many have said.

Secondly, good call on AP.  When u got off your month of April push on materiality, u got onto AP for all three legs and were 100% right.

Thirdly (here comes the rub), your point about \"how a horse moves\" violates to me what is the most important aspect of handicapping, and just because I was wrong about AP, doesn\'t make me wrong about that.

That aspect is that that there is no one rule or one way to handicap that is correct.  TG figures help, pace analysis helps, trip handicapping helps, breeding helps, workouts help, and visual analysis helps.   There are other things too.

You decided for this horse, your visual analysis of how how moves, over rode all other aspects and u want that to be a lesson learned.  Good luck with that.  It is the weakest of the angles I mentioned, it just so happened that u and others were right about this horse in this series of races.

You were right.  And Others here were too.   But I am not sure the lesson u point out is one to learn anything from.

Meant to be posted in a non confrontational way!   Hope it came across that way.

Rob

[bellsbendboy]

Pretty sure Mr. C took into account that this colt was 2yo champion and just won a grade one by a zip code at ten cents on a dollar!   bbb

[shanahan]

I would disagree, and if JB agrees, send both of you a very interesting file of the day.

[Paolo]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> ...Good luck with that.  It is the weakest of the angles I
> mentioned...
>
> ...  But I am not sure the lesson u point out is one to learn
> anything from.
>
> Rob

Rob,
The man said is was a mute [sic] point. Not about you, not about teaching you a lesson, not about your irreproachable handicapping skills, nor about your assertions.

Jim,
Terrific posts. Insightful, gracious, and respectful. Makes it worthwhile to follow this board. Only a confident man can state his point without feeling threatened or repeatedly firing back when someone disagrees. Thanks.

[TGJB]

I guess you\'re basing that on the great success 2yo champs have had in TC races.

I\'m really starting to wonder about this place.