Zayat says

[ringato3]

Joe B,

Would like to see Keen Ice \"upset\" a nwx2 allowance field, not American Pharaoh.

The horse hasn\'t run a fast race.  Ever.

Do they still have the 1 3/4 Breeder\'s Cup Marathon?  Maybe he can point for that.

Rob

[dennish]

I have also wondered about Bafferts wild success rate shipping into Monmouth. When AP arrived here on Wednesday, I listened to a group of sportswriters toss out possible clues as to why his horses perform so well here. Some observations were well above my pay grade. One thought is that the weather, humidity, & temperature at Del Mar is very similar to that of the Jersey Shore made the most sense to me. AP arrived close to the race. Not much time for a negative adjustment - if one was coming. Runs his race. Ships out Monday morning.

[ringato3]

Hmm...

If I were to make a list, \"weather and humidity\" would be items 97 and 98 on the list of reasons why Baffert does better at Monmouth.

Baffert did relatively poor at Delmar with Polytrack and Santa Anita when they had Pro-Ride.  those were tiring, closer biased surfaces on most days.  Not saying Saratoga is necessarily like that, but the surface at Saratoga is quite a bit different than Monmouth.  Monmouth almost always plays to speed, sort of like the old Keenland dirt surface.  The surface is tight, the kind where they say the \"horse\'s feet rattle\".  Baffert trains lots of horses with natural speed.  How many deep closers you see Baffert train?  

Saratoga races at 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 are true distance tests, where you need to have stamina and speed to win.  You can be a miler with brilliant speed and easily carry your form to 1 1/8 at Monmouth (sort of like Gulfstream in most years, albeit not 2015)

Rob

[jerry]

Not if it\'s wet. Look for him to enter and scratch if it comes up dry or cuppy.

[jbelfior]

Agree. Betting that if AP goes (no matter who else is in there) the Ice is made the solid second choice by the Spa lemmings.

Good Luck,
Joe B