Whitney late pick 4

[FrankD.]

With a couple of hours to kill before I\'m off on an adventure I wish I said no to!!! I did a bit of capping for tomorrow as I\'ll be at the Spa in spirit for sure.

The boys are on the practice tee\'s for the TG open and they will be off and running about the time this goes up.

The Test:
Irish Jasper is the A horse in the sequence, with a lot of speed at 7F this sets up nice for a closer, a 12K yearling who broke his maiden for 25K at Parx purchased by Will Farish after winning 3 stakes, team Ryan made a nice score. Cavorting, By The Moon and Wonder Gal will be the B plays.

The Whitney: Tonalist and Honor Code will be the A\'s, Liam\'s Map and Moreno the B\'s. A few extra punches on Tonalist as Honor Code comes off a monster # and has yet to distinguish himself around 2 turns.

The Waya:
I\'m staying inside around 3 turns on the inner as the other fast ones all drew outside. Gold Espony and Eastern Belle for me, a pair of A\'s.

NYBNW1X:
2,3,5,6,8 without a preference.

Good luck to all,

Frank D.

[MonmouthGuy]

Have only looked at Whitney so far.

Liam\'s Map drew well. He will be my Key. No speed inside him, if he breaks well should get great trip. Love his pattern, ran top off long layoff and comes in on 50 days rest, and gets 7 lbs [edit].. Value should be there.  Expecting another close but no cigar for Tonalist (top fig not top $). Betting against Honor Code to be as effective at two turns. Will also use Noble Bird and Lea underneath. Wicked Strong loves Saratoga and will be running late. Will use him deeper underneath w other Jerkens.

4 WP

4-2 Exacta Box

4-2/3/7-2/3/7/9 Tri

4-2/3/7-2/3/7-2/3/6/7/9 Super

Good luck.

[Coronado98]

Doing my preliminary handicapping (figure free, just leafing through the PPs), Liam\'s Map looks really interesting in that spot getting seven pounds away from the heavy hitters in this spot.

I\'m looking forward to being ar the Spa tomorrow, the Whitney is one of the races through the course of the year that I look forward to.

[jbelfior]

Expecting the same improvement off the turf for Wicked Strong as with VE Day in his last.
Good move by Jerkens in trying to wake this guy up. Loves Saratoga and double digit odds with horse running at favorite track and distance.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Coronado98]

Race 4 looks interesting.  The two runners that the public will likey lock in on, Vyjack and Reload don\'t give me that warm and fuzzy feeling.  

Charming Kitten was a 200k stakes winner last year and faced Main Sequence before getting laid up for the year.  He came back with 124 in the saddle and ran like he didn\'t miss a beat. Probably not getting 4-1 like the ML states, the 3/1 to 5/2 range looks more likely.

[jerry]

I\'m with you. Anything close to his 20-1 morning line is too tempting to pass up in this the best Whitney field I can remember. Should be a ton of pace up front to run at. Hopefully, the track plays fair.

[big18741]

Not really seeing a ton of pace with Coach Inge reportedly scratching.

Liam\'s Map and Moreno if they both break clean but that\'s it.

Noble Bird should be able to sit off those two and get first run.

[jerry]

Sober now. Box the 1,2,4 for a stingy exacta. Still a great race to watch.

[SoCalMan2]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Expecting the same improvement off the turf for
> Wicked Strong as with VE Day in his last.
> Good move by Jerkens in trying to wake this guy
> up. Loves Saratoga and double digit odds with
> horse running at favorite track and distance.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

You raise a great point here.

This Whitney looks really good.  

I agree with everybody about how good the Pletcher with light weight and a 1w1w trip looks.  I have to also think there is a real chance that one or both of the rank outsiders have reasonable chances to hit the exotics.  

On Wicked Strong, on top of what you say, this horse has been running in the wrong races and today gets the right spot.  The horse is a 9 furlong two turn dirt specialist and responds every time he gets the right configuration.  I think you can ignore his grass effort and the met mile was like a sprint where he lost all chance at the break.  his first two races were a one turn mile that is not for him and a mile and a quarter that was just too long.  Today is his first race as a 4 year old at his desired configuration.  Given this horse\'s 3yo base (which indicated he should fit a field like this), he should respond and move forward to new territory which will put him right there.

Also, Normandy Invasion could also surprise in the exotics at quite a price.  He gets in at 117...and he is a -1.75 machine.  Adjusted for weight, he is not much different than the favorites here at a very significant price difference.  

This race figures to be a jockey\'s race.  I love Mike Smith on the Pletcher and I think he will get him 1w1w and a responsible pace.  I think Kerwin Clark can surprise people.  Low expectations on this horse should be able to stay out of trouble and then clunk up for something.  Look at this horse\'s races when he is running two turns in large fields.  he runs like that today and he should get a piece at a gi-normous price.  Those two races earlier this year were virtual match races where the horse had to run a style outside his zone of comfort.

I think Honor Code and Tonalist could easily find trouble and in this race, there is simply no room for that.  Also, i cannot see either of them moving forward and each of them have a reasonable chance of moving backwards some.

No matter what happens, this was a great ROTW.  Good Luck to all!!

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jbelfior Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Expecting the same improvement off the turf for
> > Wicked Strong as with VE Day in his last.
> > Good move by Jerkens in trying to wake this guy
> > up. Loves Saratoga and double digit odds with
> > horse running at favorite track and distance.
> >
> > Good Luck,
> > Joe B.
>
> You raise a great point here.
>
> This Whitney looks really good.  
>
> I agree with everybody about how good the Pletcher
> with light weight and a 1w1w trip looks.  I have
> to also think there is a real chance that one or
> both of the rank outsiders have reasonable chances
> to hit the exotics.  
>
> On Wicked Strong, on top of what you say, this
> horse has been running in the wrong races and
> today gets the right spot.  The horse is a 9
> furlong two turn dirt specialist and responds
> every time he gets the right configuration.  I
> think you can ignore his grass effort and the met
> mile was like a sprint where he lost all chance at
> the break.  his first two races were a one turn
> mile that is not for him and a mile and a quarter
> that was just too long.  Today is his first race
> as a 4 year old at his desired configuration.
> Given this horse\'s 3yo base (which indicated he
> should fit a field like this), he should respond
> and move forward to new territory which will put
> him right there.
>
> Also, Normandy Invasion could also surprise in the
> exotics at quite a price.  He gets in at 117...and
> he is a -1.75 machine.  Adjusted for weight, he is
> not much different than the favorites here at a
> very significant price difference.  
>
> This race figures to be a jockey\'s race.  I love
> Mike Smith on the Pletcher and I think he will get
> him 1w1w and a responsible pace.  I think Kerwin
> Clark can surprise people.  Low expectations on
> this horse should be able to stay out of trouble
> and then clunk up for something.  Look at this
> horse\'s races when he is running two turns in
> large fields.  he runs like that today and he
> should get a piece at a gi-normous price.  Those
> two races earlier this year were virtual match
> races where the horse had to run a style outside
> his zone of comfort.
>
> I think Honor Code and Tonalist could easily find
> trouble and in this race, there is simply no room
> for that.  Also, i cannot see either of them
> moving forward and each of them have a reasonable
> chance of moving backwards some.
>
> No matter what happens, this was a great ROTW.
> Good Luck to all!!

so much for the price on Wicked Strong.  Normandy Invasion still looks like value, but the pletcher still looks best.  Looks like a box of the 117 pounders.

[Boscar Obarra]

Just noticed the race shape projection for Moreno.

 Eric would be shocked.

[miff]

Brutal loss for Liam\'s Map...ugh!

[SoCalMan2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Brutal loss for Liam\'s Map...ugh!


Was wondering if it was me or not. I thought Smith completely blew the finish. If he were on American Pharaoh, Keen Ice would have gotten up. That finish cost me a very pretty penny in the horizontals and win bets.

[miff]

So Cal,

Loved the ride. He bottomed out everything within 5 lengths of him, just tired late, not sure whip would have helped.Great ride by Castellano staying in instead of angling out,got him the win.

Mike

[jerry]

Right about it being a great race. Wrong about it being a stingy exacta. Can\'t believe 7/2 over 5-1 paid $76. Race reminded me of Forego and Honest Pleasure. This is a great handicap division. Can\'t wait to see AP run with this group. Has to beat them to prove he\'s that good.