Travers Stakes Pick 4

[FrankD.]

Kings Bishop:
Holy Boss, Watershed & Competitive Edge

Forego:
Private Zone

Sword Dancer:
Imaging, Flintshire, Mesi

Travers:
AP
Tri\'s AP over Texas Red/Upstart, add Smart Transition in 3rd spot on a couple of tickets.
Supers 2/1,4/1,4,6,10/1,4,6,10

Good Luck and Happy Travers Day to ALL,

Frank D.

[ringato3]

Frank,

Your pick 4 ticket reflects what a bad betting sequence this is.  U have posted each week and most of your tickets had upside of thousands.  The ticket u posted here may pay 60 bucks.  

IMO if u are going to play this sequence u can\'t use holy boss and competitive edge.  That race looks like the race u HAVE to try and get a price horse home or u have to pass on the sequence.   Private zone is 2-1 and solid, Flintshire is 4/5 and deserves to be, because despite the race looking sort of competitive on thorograph, it isn\'t.   Flintshire is a ton better than the middling group of horses we have running in that race.  Yeah, imagining got a disgusting ride last time and Ortiz figures to give him a good trip, but barring a fluke, he looks almost as solid as AP to me.   And then of course, u have AP in the last leg, with a pace and figure edge.

Holy boss is solid, but 7 furlongs against this quality is an unknown.  Can\'t take a horse as a favorite to do something he hasn\'t done before.  (Harvey pack).  Competitive edge has been a bit over rated, and looks weak on TG especially, relative to his expected off odds.   I think the pace is contested here and will use three horses.  Classy class, March and Grand Bili.   I think they are solid and offer value.

I will press private zone in the forego, but will use two horses for half as much.   Race day was nightmarish at Monmouth, but his prior races were good.   And wise guy horse Tamarkuz, who doesn\'t fit on TG, but had a middle move into a hot pace in the Met Mile, which stunted his final figure.  We see his best today.

I stand with Flintshire.

Then I get stubborn in the travers.   I can\'t resist the risk reward of betting against Pharaoh and heck, been doing it since April.   I probably weight my pick 4 to be 4x on Pharaoh, 2x on Texas red and 1x on upstart.  

On a separate note, those watching NY closely have likely seen this, but being on or near the lead on the Mellon turf course has been horrible for 2 weeks now.   The inner has been neutral, but other than the 2-1 maiden who set a slow sprint pace yesterday, I haven\'t seen a horse run well near the lead at all.  Yes, I know somebody could post that the Mellon was always tougher on speed than the inner, which is sort of true, but the last two weeks have been VERY strongly against speed.   Worth watching and factoring in.   For one, it makes Tepin look vulnerable to me and makes me look at coffee clique to rebound if he finally gets an off the pace ride from the outside post.

Rob

[FrankD.]

Rob,

Good luck today and congrats on winning our little debate as declared by one judge anyway!!!! LMAO

Let\'s just say today\'s pick 4 sequence will be far more than a $2 ticket as will the triple and super sequence in the Travers.

Missing the seminar as I type, Laura\'s plane got in at 1:30 last night. Heading trackside in a bit, they were showing the gate opening stampede on local news this morning at 700, all picnic tables were occupied by 7:10.

An epic day in the grand history of the Old Spa,

Good luck to all,

Frank D.

[richiebee]

Frank:

Just like you have been, I\'ve been looking over the stakes part of the Travers
card since Wednesday. Having said that, I wish my conclusions were a bit more
imaginative or inventive.

Let me start by saying that if you strongly endorse the \"pair of deuces\" finish
to the P4 ending with the Travers -- the \"deuces\" being Flintshire and AP --
the play might be to jump in the P6 pool.

With regards to the \"deuces\", the way I look at the Sword Dancer is that we
usually lament the fact that second string Euros regularly ship and whip our
top NA turfers; here is a case where a top Euro comes in to face a field of
arguably not top tier North Americans. Fabre, Juddmonte, likely off at 4/5.

In the Travers, I am still surprised AP is here, but here he is. My feeling
that he will take the Travers has a lot to do with respect for him, but also
not being sold on two of his main competitors, Texas Red (an equine ground
loss machine) (2w,3w in a 4 horse Jim Dandy) and Frosted, who is using all of
these top 3YO races to prep for the big race on the track he loves (AQ,NYRA
Mile).

AP is obviously a special talent and a win here while something less than 100%
cranked a distinct possibility. My assertive opinion is that AP is so mentally
and physically sound right now that he could take The Travers and train up to
the BC.

My only other strong opinion in the sequence is that Holy Boss arguably enjoys
as big an edge over his competition in terms of TG #s and pattern as any
runner on the card not named AP, another possible P6 single.

[Niall]

Is there any chance that the P3 ending with the Sword Dancer might pay MORE than the P4 ending with AP? Assuming he wins of course ...

[SoCalMan2]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Frank,
>
> Your pick 4 ticket reflects what a bad betting
> sequence this is.  U have posted each week and
> most of your tickets had upside of thousands.  The
> ticket u posted here may pay 60 bucks.  
>
> IMO if u are going to play this sequence u can\'t
> use holy boss and competitive edge.  That race
> looks like the race u HAVE to try and get a price
> horse home or u have to pass on the sequence.  
> Private zone is 2-1 and solid, Flintshire is 4/5
> and deserves to be, because despite the race
> looking sort of competitive on thorograph, it
> isn\'t.   Flintshire is a ton better than the
> middling group of horses we have running in that
> race.  Yeah, imagining got a disgusting ride last
> time and Ortiz figures to give him a good trip,
> but barring a fluke, he looks almost as solid as
> AP to me.   And then of course, u have AP in the
> last leg, with a pace and figure edge.
>
> Holy boss is solid, but 7 furlongs against this
> quality is an unknown.  Can\'t take a horse as a
> favorite to do something he hasn\'t done before.
> (Harvey pack).  Competitive edge has been a bit
> over rated, and looks weak on TG especially,
> relative to his expected off odds.   I think the
> pace is contested here and will use three horses.
> Classy class, March and Grand Bili.   I think they
> are solid and offer value.
>
> I will press private zone in the forego, but will
> use two horses for half as much.   Race day was
> nightmarish at Monmouth, but his prior races were
> good.   And wise guy horse Tamarkuz, who doesn\'t
> fit on TG, but had a middle move into a hot pace
> in the Met Mile, which stunted his final figure.
> We see his best today.
>
> I stand with Flintshire.
>
> Then I get stubborn in the travers.   I can\'t
> resist the risk reward of betting against Pharaoh
> and heck, been doing it since April.   I probably
> weight my pick 4 to be 4x on Pharaoh, 2x on Texas
> red and 1x on upstart.  
>
> On a separate note, those watching NY closely have
> likely seen this, but being on or near the lead on
> the Mellon turf course has been horrible for 2
> weeks now.   The inner has been neutral, but other
> than the 2-1 maiden who set a slow sprint pace
> yesterday, I haven\'t seen a horse run well near
> the lead at all.  Yes, I know somebody could post
> that the Mellon was always tougher on speed than
> the inner, which is sort of true, but the last two
> weeks have been VERY strongly against speed.  
> Worth watching and factoring in.   For one, it
> makes Tepin look vulnerable to me and makes me
> look at coffee clique to rebound if he finally
> gets an off the pace ride from the outside post.
>
> Rob

Of course the big favorite euro could win and I will not be leaving him out, but I am not so sure I would feel entirely comfortable singling him. He disappoints as a favorite quite a bit it seems looking at his PPs. Yes, he has run second to Treve twice, but he also has a lot of races he was supposed to win but didn\'t. I don\'t know his jockey, but this configuration does have three turns and I am not so sure he can afford to give up too much ground which might not be obvious to a jockey new to the course. Also, why is he not getting lasix? Guess he didn\'t need it in BC Turf, but again he is giving his competitors an edge. In the end, this race looks to me mighty competitive and the jockey that gets the best trip will be likely on the winner

[ringato3]

Socal2,

I guess that is what makes racing.  I think the race is extremely uncompetitive.  U criticize Flintshire for losing to grade 1 monsters abroad.   Yet, u think slow mediocre horses like twilight eclipse, war dancer and imagining can win?   They lost to a horse, red rifle, who may not even be a turf horse.

Trip is always important, especially in turf races, but Flintshire has to take much the worst of it to lose this race.  

Rob

[miff]

Flintshire was ridden like the jock knew the fence would be open, home 22.30 last split

[ringato3]

Mike

He saved ground and probably won\'t get a big TG figure, so those that bet against him will feel they were \"right\", but this horse is much too good for the American horses that ran today.

Unfortunately, I was right that this was a bad sequence.   The first race was the only wide open race, with private zone and Flintshire standouts.

Speaking of conspiracy theories.   Baffert wavers for weeks about coming here and the dirt track seems to have gotten faster in the last hour leading into the travers.   Hmm....  

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

For certain Baffert/Zayat told NYRA pre Belmont that they were concerned about the dull dirt surface, assume same today.

Thought Red Rifle made good charge with perfect trip.

Runhappy looks to have been like 20-1+ in multi race wagers and even higher in pick 6.

Lotta ugly chalks early in card

Mike