ROTW

[miff]

Pennsylvania Derby (GII)

PP horse (weight) jockey/trainer odds

1. War Story (117) Parker/Radosevich 20-1
2. Island Town (122) Hernandez Jr./Wilkes 10-1
3. Frosted (124) Rosario/McLaughlin 5-2
4. Iron Fist (117) Smith/Hollendorfer 8-1
5. Madefromlucky (122) Velazquez/Pletcher 4-1
6. Gimme Da Lute (122) Garcia/Baffert 5-1
7. Tommy Macho (117) Castellano/Pletcher 10-1
8. Battle Midway (117) Gryder/Zito 20-1
9. Upstart (122) Ortiz/Violette 9-2
10.Mr. Z (119) Saez/Lukas 10-1

[Al Caught Up]

Boy, could Lukas give Mr. Z a rest? His Sheet is starting to look like one of Randi Persaud\'s 12,000 claimer\'s...

[Coronado98]

Interesting race.

On first glance Frosted as the highweight yet again in allowance conditions looks like a bet against to me.

[ringato3]

Not sure if I would make this the ROTW.   Haven\'t seen the sheets, but the 1-2-4-5-8-10 are unbettable and slow.   Upstart has been awful.   Gimmedalute was poor last time out.   As was tommy macho, which was disappointing as I thought he was becoming a runner.

Frosted ran well last time and will be 7-5 here.

Not sure I see a bet

Rob

[miff]

\"Not sure I see a bet\"

Rob,

When Fraud-sted is 7-5 there\'s always the chance for a bet.Forgetting figs for a moment, take a hard look at his pp\'s.Find it interesting that aside from his maiden win, he has run down exactly one horse in his career, Tencendur.Without question the one to beat but Upstart dusted him twice and continues to look and train well at Belmont, becoming enigmatic.

If Upstart does not run big, will have to consider he\'s somehow gone over the top to that place of no return.

Mike

[Rick B.]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As was tommy macho, which was disappointing as I
> thought he was becoming a runner.

I expect both Pletcher horses to magically improve at
Philthy (PARX).

Maybe others, too.  [==[|||)---

[ringato3]

Mike,

I hear u about frosted.   And u make a good point.

But I have to tell u, I am shocked to hear u mention upstart.   U and I discussed him after the haskell.   I thought he was terrible there.   U saw some \"sneaky run\".    One of two of my sharper handicapper buddies saw what u saw and despite not agreeing, I included upstart in my play in the travers.  (Was also influenced by welsch going gaga over his works prior to travers.

Horse was worse than disgusting to me in the travers.  Sat rail, off the leaders, who went head to head for mile and crawled late.   Upstart lost ground versus two dead horses in stretch.   To me \"race track awful\" as u like to say.

Wouldn\'t bet a wooden nickel on that horse.  I am still disgusted I bet him last time.  

What excuse u gonna give him this time.  Over the top before derby, needed the haskell, bad in travers and now bounces back in 3 weeks.  

No thanks

I would give Gimmedalute a mulligan for his last race and bet him.  If anybody.

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Get your drift and can see it clearly.Fast trumps everything in my read, broadly speaking,Upstart is or was fast.Tend to be more liberal with mulligans with fast ones vs the grinder/ground loaded fig type or overall slug...just my take.

Third off the layoff is the final chance and hope he will stay OFF the inside where he ran most of his fastest races.By no means a stand, but without having seen pp\'s fig\'s,first inclination is to attack Fraud-sted if a viable option presents, may not be the case.


Mike

[mjellish]

Have a question that i am curious about.  This race is 1 1/8th.  Travers was 1 1/4.  That change your opinion on Upstart, or Frosted, or anyone else?

[miff]

Distance seems better on Sat for most,more for Upstart imo,but if they are over the top(Upstart?) or gutted from a recent effort/s(Frosted?)not much else matters.Kiaran a bit of a Kool Aid drinker so it surprises me he\'s back in 3 weeks with Frosted after a tough fought Travers.

Many in here heavily campaigned/training, shipping, shortish rest.Race is far more tricky than it looks on pp\'s/figs imo which means Frosted will whistle @ like $4.40

[ringato3]

MJ,

I think the cutback helps Frosted.  I could make a case that he wins at 1 1/8 in the Travers and the extra distance did him no good.

As for Upstart, that is an impossible case to make.  Horse has run well for less than a mile his last 3 starts.  To me he has the classic look of a horse that is just off form.  Still looks good in workouts, because he is a fast horse, but then he gets in a race and packs it in after less than a mile.  I am sure I am going to put him in the winner\'s circle, but I wouldn\'t take 20-1 on him.  

I think 1 1/8 is stretching it for Gimmedalute, but he certainly seems to have a better shot there than I would ever give him at 1 1/4.  The problem with him, I think, is that I don\'t think the price will be there.  He is 5-1 ML, which I would take in a heartbeat, but I think 3-1 is what he goes off at.  There just aren\'t too many horses to bet.  Madefromlucky at 9/2 and Upstart at 9/2 look like foolish morning lines.  Would bet almost anything that Gimmedalute goes off shorter than both.  

Rob

[jbelfior]

It\'s Baffert at Parx on a tight MP-like surface. \"DaLute\" takes them pretty far in this one.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Similar to Mth in more ways than surface.

[TGJB]

Re that, for those who don\'t normally bet Parx but handicap the Saturday card using TG, you will see a couple of the all time great move-up sheets, 4th and 8th races. It would be funny, if there wasn\'t betting. And it\'s going on regularly.

[jbelfior]

I would be crushed to find out that Ramon Preciado and Marcos Zulueta are not what the Parx Trainer Stats say they are.

The entire Delaware Valley circuit (toss MP in there as well) a cesspool.


Good Luck,
Joe B.