Beholder

[big18741]

I\'m hoping Keeneland isn\'t like Santa Anita two of the last three years.

I like the \"mediocre plodder/improving slug\" three year old who ran -3 last time.
Ten furlongs with pace on a fair race track should be good for him.

Like him or not,Liam\'s Map in the Classic makes for a better race.
Hoping Liam,AP,Beholder and the other fast ones all show up.

[ringato3]

Big,

Even broken clocks are right twice a day, and you are past the statute of limitations on bragging about that race.  You already did at least two \"I told you so\'s\".

[miff]

Pretty surprising to see Keen Ice a shorter price in the futures than Tonalist, Gleneagles, Liams Map and Frosted.Think all of them will be shorter than KI on race day.

Donegal race manager said KI top 3 yr old in the country right now....BRILLIANT!!

[big18741]

Ring

My strike rate is a lot worse than a broken clock.
Strictly ball busting and by no means bragging.
Half of that was for Miff(improving slug)anyway.

Truth be told I\'m shocked he won the Travers as washed out as he was prerace.

Still,I think -3 with a trip could be good in the Classic and he might get a similar setup.

[ringato3]

Big,

All good!  Your strike rate sounds very much like my own.  Tough game.  As a multi-race bettor, you can go on LONG losing streaks.

I miss my sports gambling days when 3 losses in a row was relatively rare.

Improving 3 year olds always good to have.  Have to say, I don\'t see it at all.  Would be shocked if he hit the superfecta, but that could be a good sign for you.

Field looks tough if they all show up.  Tonalist a bit off the radar as his last few were a bit disappointing, but I think he is a runner.  Liam\'s Map surely a runner. I won\'t bet the Euro, but many sharp handicappers think he is a runner.  AP and Beholder are the \"name horses\", along with Honor Code, who I think will be second choice if he wins this weekend.  (otherwise Beholder).

Good luck,

Rob

[Michael D.]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ring
>
> My strike rate is a lot worse than a broken
> clock.
> Strictly ball busting and by no means bragging.
> Half of that was for Miff(improving slug)anyway.
>
> Truth be told I\'m shocked he won the Travers as
> washed out as he was prerace.
>
> Still,I think -3 with a trip could be good in the
> Classic and he might get a similar setup.


big, I\'d take a strike rate 1/2 as good as yours. you\'ve been great here, and nailed the analysis on the development of KI.

btw, who\'s riding the horse in the BC? seems like all the top jocks are taken.

[jbelfior]

Many things to consider. Track profile is one of them---not sure how Keenland will play out at a 1 1/4.  

While Keen Ice is certainly a rapidly improving 3 yo with the thoro figures to be a top BC Classic contender,it\'s unlikely that he would have made an impact at Santa Anita last year or the year before that or at GP the year before that.

Point is that I would prefer a Keen Ice at a venue like Saratoga or Churchill as opposed to SA or GP or perhaps even a Keenland.  


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[big18741]

Seems like they would go back to Desormeaux.

[mjellish]

From what I have seen so far, I don\'t regard Honor Code as a horse who is going to run his best race at 1 1/4.  If LM goes, that may help Honor Code\'s cause.  But even still, I dunno.

[TGJB]

Unless HC looks very impressive in the Kelso (no idea who\'s in there) he won\'t be second choice, either. Beholder is a story horse, a filly who beat colts by a pole with a big Beyer, a BC dual winner, and the last one looks sexy with the \"under wraps\" business. She will get slammed.

[jbelfior]

I agree Jerry. AP (assuming he goes) and Beholder will take a ton of money.

Perhaps there\'s another 3yo who is improving at the right time that may be overlooked that day. Some on this board think he\'s a \"fraud.\"


Good Luck,
Joe B

[magicnight]

FWIW the British books have AP at about 2-1, Beholder at about 7/2, and you can still get 8-1 from most of them on Honor Code.

[miff]

Joe B,

You have Fraud-sted improving? Kinda read him flatlined for some time.


Mike

[P-Dub]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Many things to consider. Track profile is one of
> them---not sure how Keenland will play out at a 1
> 1/4.  
>
> While Keen Ice is certainly a rapidly improving 3
> yo with the thoro figures to be a top BC Classic
> contender,it\'s unlikely that he would have made an
> impact at Santa Anita last year or the year before
> that or at GP the year before that.
>
> Point is that I would prefer a Keen Ice at a venue
> like Saratoga or Churchill as opposed to SA or GP
> or perhaps even a Keenland.  
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

The Santa Anita strip last year did not have that big of a speed bias. Sometimes, the best horse is the one that races near the front.

BC Saturday last year:
R4: Winner wired, place/show came from 5/7 at the 1/2 call.
R6: ITM horses 4/5/8 at the 1/2 call
R8: Texas Red and Carpe Diem came from far back to hit the ex
R10: Winner stalked and won, 2/3 horses came from 3-4 lengths off
R12: Classic ITM came from the front horses.  You can make the case that those horses figured to hit the board too.

The year before, that was a speed bias. I thought last year the track was fair enough.

[rhagood]

As reported earlier today, AP is just getting back to himself. He will be compromised and not 100% tight for the race. Although he won the derby at 80% to 90%? fitness that won\'t happen in the Classic:

Jay Privman , Santa Anita , 2015-10-03 - DRF Live Posted :

Baffert: American Pharoah going to stay at SA, not fly to Kentucky
Bob Baffert just told me that American Pharoah will not fly to Kentucky on Monday and will instead continue to train at Santa Anita for the time being.

Basically, he wants to leave well enough alone.

\"I\'ve finally got him the way I want. I don\'t want to put him on a plane,\" Baffert said. \"His coat\'s good. His weight\'s good. I\'ve just got to keep him happy.\"