Lost Interest then Finished well

[KeenelandKid]

I hope this discussion is appropriate for this forum if not just please remove. Have a question for the experts here, when I see this happen I wonder what conclusion I can draw from it. Looking at a race on the card for Kee Weds, 3yr old coming out of a race of 7f where he ran 23.04, 23.55, 26.53, 11.97. The horse did not have any trouble in that 3rd quarter but ran 26.53 and went from near lead to last, 15l back, only to finish up well then in 11.97 making up 6 1/4L in final 1/8. In general does this happen because the horse loses interest in racing or does he run slow enough that he was able to regain enough stamina to finish well. Could you draw anything from this race as to a predictor to his next.

[TGJB]

No problem with the question, I\'m not the guy to answer it.

[SoCalMan2]

KeenelandKid Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I hope this discussion is appropriate for this
> forum if not just please remove. Have a question
> for the experts here, when I see this happen I
> wonder what conclusion I can draw from it. Looking
> at a race on the card for Kee Weds, 3yr old coming
> out of a race of 7f where he ran 23.04, 23.55,
> 26.53, 11.97. The horse did not have any trouble
> in that 3rd quarter but ran 26.53 and went from
> near lead to last, 15l back, only to finish up
> well then in 11.97 making up 6 1/4L in final 1/8.
> In general does this happen because the horse
> loses interest in racing or does he run slow
> enough that he was able to regain enough stamina
> to finish well. Could you draw anything from this
> race as to a predictor to his next.

I do not follow Keeneland closely, but maybe the horse blew the turn but you couldn\'t tell? There could easily have been some temporary trouble that a visual observer might not have been able to pick up on. If the first two quarters were straightaways and the jockey felt the horse freaking on the turn, then maybe the jockey held him/eased up on him to get him on the right path and back together? Once back on the straightaway he ran again, maybe that could be an explanation? The 26.53 could have some turn and some straight away? This is just a guess.  I would look at the horse\'s other races for clues as well.  There could easily have been some temporary trouble that a visual observer might not have been able to pick up on.

[Tavasco]

If you id the horse and race I will double check your arithmetic. If you\'d like.

[Gerard]

I haven\'t done any serious handicapping is several decades, but there was a time this was a potent betting angle. It may have been pointed out in one of the Beyer books (not Beyer on speed) of the late 80\'s/early 90\'s, or another handicapper/conditioner book, but it was definitely in print. Anyway, a horse in contention to the far turn, which then loses interest on the turn and makes up ground in the stretch was a sure bet back, and a double up on drop in class. This was a great Bill Mott angle back in those days. Not sure where this falls in today\'s world, but maybe it helps.

[FrankD.]

Not in Beyer, I forget who coined it but it\'s the old Z pattern. A great training move for younger horses or one coming off the bench.

Frank D.

[KeenelandKid]

Horse 7, race 3 for the upcoming Kee Weds card (10/14). The race in question was his last on Sept. 17 at Churchill. When watching the replay myself I didn\'t notice any type of trouble, just seemed to regress. The backward move started around the start of the turn, so what was said about having trouble with turn and then began to run again once on the straight could be true.

[Michael D.]

his final two 1/16s were 6.08 and 6.43 (6.43 from the 1/16 pole to the wire).

the race in question collapsed with most of the runners finishing in the 7.0 range.

the rush at the end probably wasn\'t as good as it looked.

that said, I notice the horse has more of a 6f pedigree. the experience and shorter trip should work in his favor.

[KeenelandKid]

Ok, my numbers were showing he was 1:13.12, 1:25.09

[Edgorman]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not in Beyer, I forget who coined it but it\'s the
> old Z pattern. A great training move for younger
> horses or one coming off the bench.
>
> Frank D.

With due respect Frank, I believe Beyer did coin \"the Z pattern\".
A powerful pre TG handicapping tool.

[FrankD.]

Edgorman,

Could be it was 35 years ago or so, if so I stand corrected.

Good luck,

FD

[FrankD.]

Edgor,

This one rings a bell although Beyer may have named it in his book first or not!
LOL



In his 1979 book, Winning at the Races, Dr. William Quirin wrote of the Z-Pattern. He called it, \"Two Runs in the Same Race\" (page 100). This factor was credited with amazing performance despite the fact that the sample in Quirin\'s book was based upon only 87 races.

Alas, the wonderful results attributed to this pattern in his book are nowhere near reality.

Here is the result of a more robust sample, taken from 24 months of racing:

Code:

WIN BETS
Z-Pattern      Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------
starts          2,097    342   16.3  $1.78   1.32   1.14

[Tavasco]

As I read it.

Equibase has the last 1/8 in 13:14.

Brisnet has the horse finishing 8.75 lengths behind winner furthermore the horse lost another length in the last 1/8

So the final fraction must be increased by 9.75 lengths assuming 1 length = .25 secs totaling 2.43 secs.

So Coverallyourbases ran it\'s last 1/8 in  15.57 secs

The comments read - was done early

It is odd that that the horse went from running last by 7.75 @6f call to 15.5 lengths behind @ the stretch call and then rallied to gain 7 lengths finishing 8.75 lengths behind winner at the wire.

The anomaly could relate to all the action taking place in that last furlong. The 6f leaders dropped anchor and two other back markers ran away from Coverallyourbases to finish 1st and 2nd.

After watching the replay, I think the horse did have a problem turning (Although stuck to rail) and the late gain was deceptive because the horse passed was stopping. Note - the horse was 38/1 and out classed so games may be afoot?

Any form reversal on this one will earn double box cars! Not with a ten foot pole. Wednesday\'s race is a $50K claimer have not seen the sheet  had turn trouble three back guessing ouchy needs rest, one way ticket out of KEE and more class relief. Then there\'s the name.

[Edgorman]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Edgor,
>
> This one rings a bell although Beyer may have
> named it in his book first or not!
> LOL
>
>
>
> In his 1979 book, Winning at the Races, Dr.
> William Quirin wrote of the Z-Pattern. He called
> it, \"Two Runs in the Same Race\" (page 100). This
> factor was credited with amazing performance
> despite the fact that the sample in Quirin\'s book
> was based upon only 87 races.
>
> Alas, the wonderful results attributed to this
> pattern in his book are nowhere near reality.
>
> Here is the result of a more robust sample, taken
> from 24 months of racing:
>
> Code:
>
> WIN BETS
> Z-Pattern      Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV
>   PIV
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----------
> starts          2,097    342   16.3  $1.78   1.32
>  1.14

You are good Frank. 35 years ago is the right time line.  I swear I read it in Beyer.  Quirin way too smart for me.

[FrankD.]

Edgar,

In the same search there was a Beyer article where he mentions the Z pattern in one of his books when talking about fundamentals and givens as opposed to his numbers. I was pretty sure I had read it someplace other than Beyer.

Good thing we all know now it\'s snake oil or microwave handicapping.

Good luck,

FD