Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

[jbelfior]

Interesting stats so far in Keenland route races on dirt. As TGJB said weeks ago, there\'s going to be a lot of ground loss.

Posts 1-4   19 of 25 (76%)  
Posts 5-11  6 of 25  (24%)

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Posts 1-4 26 for 160 (16.2%)
Posts 5-14 14 for 217 (6.5%)


huh?? What posts won the other 77.3% of the routes?? Also impossible that there were 160 runners in  post 1-4 vs 217 runners in posts 5-14 meet is only a 9 days old

[P-Dub]

Well........Obviously, its a Damn Lie.

[magicnight]

Mike, \"impossible\" might be a little strong. These aren\'t my stats but from these I\'d say that the 160 horses that started in the 4 inside posts in the 40 2-turn dirt races through the first 8 days of the meet (avg of 5 such races per day - that seems high - maybe this includes the Spring meet) had 26 winners, or, won 65% of these races. The 217 in the posts 5 and out combined to win 35% of the races. 217 & 160 = 377, or, about 9.5 horses per race. Other than the number of 2-turn dirt races so far (and the misleading \"win percentages\") this looks OK.

[jbelfior]

sorry guys. misread old data from Equibase.
Of 25 main track routes this meet, 19 won by post 4 and under (76%).

15 turf routes so far with no apparent pp advantage.  

 
Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Magic,

That\'s my reference, has to be since inception of new surface,\"impossible\" this meet.

Mike

[magicnight]

Yup. We good.

[mjellish]

The track had tons of rain early on.  And i mean tons.  Seems to have held up well.  In general the winning move has been to save ground through the turns and then rally out a few paths from the rail down the stretch.  That could mean nothing by the BC, but its worth noting.  Especially since they are now scrutinizing the surface after the recent breakdowns of some notable runners.

[RICH]

I have 3 for 49, posts 5 and out last 30 days fast dirt mile and over

[RICH]

... all dirt fast and wet

[RICH]

and 15-41 posts 1-4

[Wrongly]

Track appears fast this morning as Runhappy rocketed off  23.4 34 45.3 57.3 out in 110.2

[Focus959]

Fall meet, mile and over, main track through October 11:

25 dirt route races:

PP 1-4: 19/25= 76%

PP 5-12: 6/25= 24%

http://www.keeneland.com/sites/default/files/shared/stats/pp101115.pdf

[trwhis2]

Those stats aren\'t exactly fair when you factor in field size.

Additionally, favorites have won 11/25 (44%) of these races at the current meet...Higher than the average when you look at Fall 2014 - Present.

9 of the 11 favorites to win have been in post position 1-4...So are they the favorite because they\'re in post 1-4 or are they just the fastest horse in the race and happen to be in post 1-4?

[miff]

Public don\'t make horses favorite solely because of post position but will knock a horse down a bit for drawing well inside, two turn races mainly.