Pletcher at Keenleland

[arizonaheat]

Doing some research for this year\'s cup and a little stuck.  Since this is the Ask the Experts area, was wondering if anyone knew where I can find training records at Keeneland.  Specifically I am looking to see what Pletcher\'s record is shipping in to Keeneland.  

Anybody have stats for this?

[mjellish]

I dont have any stats, but Pletcher horses usually run well at Keenland, but not at CD.  Pretty sure you could get the stats if you buy the pre-entries.

[jp702006]

Remember that you have two sets of stats to look at. Pletcher at Keenland and also Pletcher in the Breeders Cup. Not sure which one is more relevant in this situation, but I\'m sure others on this board will chime in over the next two weeks.

Patrick

[phil23]

Was thinking about this as well today. And on top of both of those, KEE v BC, also the issue that while we are starting to build a good record of BC under the enhanced testing, most of them have been out at West. So...if an East Coast trainer has gone particularly poorly since the testing began, is because of the testing or because of the shipping?

Apropros of that, in drf\'s write up on Tonalist\'s work today Clement was, I would not say complaining but expressing, his wish that the BC would someday again be back at Belmont, in the interest of fairness. Not an unreasonable request imo.

Not that, contrary to some suggestions, his main guy needs the Belmont track. That machine seems to run his (ludicrously consistent #\'s) up state just as well as down (last year too).

[Molesap]

I do not think either of these directly answers your question, but here are two interesting stats for Pletcher. I found his Kee stats since 2010 and contrasted that with his overall Breeder’s Cup record.  

At Kee since 2010: 248-67-37-24 (27% win, 52% in the money)
At the Breeder’s Cup: 108-7-12-13 (6% win, 30% in the money)

His Kee stats are for all horses, not just shippers. While Pletcher does not normally scream turf to me, 3 of his 7 wins were on that surface at the Breeder’s Cup ((Ashado (D, 2004), Speightstown (S, 2004), English Channel (T, 2007), More Than Real (JFT, 2010), Pluck (JT, 2010), Uncle Mo (J, 2010), Shanghai Bobby (J, 2012)). Also of interest to me is that he won 5 of his 7 races in just two years. In 2004 the venue was Lone Star and in 2010 it was at Churchill Downs.

[Tavasco]

I went through the expected entries, just to see what kind of hand TAP had before the draw so to speak.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Thrilled - 2nd in the Ms. Grillo & P.G. Johnson s/b a healthy price

Dirt Mile
Liam\'s Map - expected by many to be the deserved favorite.

Juvenile Turf
Azar - Solid Pilgrim 2nd place effort and I imagine TGJB seminar will explain this one will need improvement. Grinder yes explosive not.

Distaff
Stopchargingmaria
Got Lucky
Curalina

Turf
Red Rifle - an improving horse but this spot seems a little optimistic

Classic
Noteworthy that he has no entry. No entry no chance.

Turf Mile
Jack Milton - Has done his best running in May, in Kentucky @ KEE
MShawish - Interesting if entered, sensation winter @GP and 3rd in Dubai not to shabby.

Juvenile Dirt
Sudden Surprise - Unbeaten sprinting - possibilities price?
Uncle Vinny - poor two turn effort

Sprint
Note no entry all that horse flesh and not a top sprinter

Juvenile Fillies Dirt
Rachel\'s Valentina - Definite horizontal use. I don\'t think she would surprise the crowd so expect a paltry price.

F&M Turf
No TAP?

F&M Sprint
Dame Dorothy - Like Bobby Flay needs a reason to go to the BC. DD won @ CD @ 7F and I think this could be her best distance. Current form ?

Turf Sprint
squahoosh

In my perception of TAP, What I respect is that he usually rejects an uphill playing field, avoids a level playing field and excels at placing his charges where they can be expected to win money.

So In Summary, In my view it looks like he has legit contenders in four BC races. Both Juvenile Dirt Events, The Dirt Mile and the Distaff. His pricey players can be found in the Turf Mile and F&M sprint. His entries in the Juvenile Turf events suggests to me the volatility of juvenile turf racing and those two races have captured my interest.

Could be one of the few venues where we can expect to get more than 3/1 on him. Oddly enough, he may actually be under the radar.

[arizonaheat]

Experts: This is what exactly what I was kinda going after.  

Knowing that his overall BC record was suspect, but at Keeneland he does much better.   With BC 2012, 2013, 2014 all being out West, you could conceivably argue that the long distance shipping added to the lack of performance by his runners.  Of course, it could have also been he just didn\'t have the talent.  

However, in 2010 he had three BC winners at Churchill.    It wouldn\'t be a long stretch to believe that 2015 may be a much better BC for this trainer.  All his runners (sans Liam\'s Map) should be reasonable odds as well.

Just some pre-BC things to consider

[miff]

Fair under/over on TAP BC winners is 2. Liam looks imposing and Rachel\'s Valentina has to get past Songbird probably. The rest of TAP\'s runners look ordinary,going in,relative to the competition.

[Agastache]

To update your list- Jack Milton has been retired and will be offered up for auction after the Breeders\' Cup.

Also, TAP would have had a top 3 contender in the Sprint with Rock Fall, until his unfortunate demise last week. And certainly Rock Fall will be considered posthumously for year end champion sprinter honors.