Cup Weather

[Silver Charm]

I know its Super Early and at the risk of being reprimanded by FrankD and JoeB there is a decent looking Forecast Trend working for Lexington. At the very least the projections are its going to be very dry for the next two weeks. And that makes a big difference for the Euros who may come over here strong with the Lexington Climate and Breeding connections with many of their farms nearby.....

[Fairmount1]

I guess we shouldn\'t click on the forecast trend now that it shows rain symbols on the 30th and 31st??  Start reprimanding!

[jbelfior]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know its Super Early and at the risk of being
> reprimanded by FrankD and JoeB there is a decent
> looking Forecast Trend working for Lexington. At
> the very least the projections are its going to be
> very dry for the next two weeks. And that makes a
> big difference for the Euros who may come over
> here strong with the Lexington Climate and
> Breeding connections with many of their farms
> nearby.....


You\'re correct in that the overall pattern for the next 7 days there points to dry and warm.

However, Accuweather long range has a substantial rain event for the Tenn/Ohio Valley areas for the 26th and 27th (the timing could be off a day or so this far out). Right now it looks as if that system will be out of there in time for the BC but it will not be as warm for BC weekend.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[trackjohn]

Joe B.:

 Agree 100%...WAY to early...BUT...the major computer models (Euro, GFS, Canadian, etc..) all agree with some nasty weather (significant rain/wind) for next Sun/Mon..might affect some training/last workouts...chance for \'unsettled weather 10/29-10/30...IMO, It won\'t be until this weekend where one could have ANY confidence in the forecast for 10/30 &10/31

John

[jbelfior]

Whatever the remants of Patricia bring to the Midwest should be gone by Wednesday.
 
Weatherbell Analytics maps is looking dry and in the mid-50\'s Friday and Saturday.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Edgorman]

If Trump\'s wall was in place, we wouldn\'t have to worry.

[FrankD.]

Quite a few remnants to get through; looks like steady rain showers from late Monday night straight through late Wednesday afternoon. Total rain fall amount looks to be a little bit either way of an inch.

Main track will be fast both days, a firm turf even for Friday would not surprise me. It may have a little give in it but sunny, a lil breeze from Thursday on should make for perfect conditions.

Onto the draw!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

Just an fyi, in case you were not following the Kee meet so far. The turf course is a mess. The rails have been out to protect the inside paths. Raw times on grass,listed as firm,were on average -170 or 10 lengths slower than firm.

With more rain and little real sun to tighten the grass course up, expect grass races to be slowish on the clock even if listed firm. Would think big edge to euros as the course should feel like it does overseas.

Good luck,
Mike

[phil23]

Great point on the turf course Mike. It really does seem like it is in very rough shape. Noticed a horse like Tourist today, even he looked to be being asked and used a fair bit in his work and even then, a slow time. Not a comment on his chances at all, just that the course looks very chewed up over the part they\'ve been running on.

Wondering, if in addition to the obvious geometric benefit (sweet draw for a certain ROTW fave of this board in that race), just the fact of running over the un-used insider portions won\'t be extremely helpful as well.

[phil23]

Meant to attach this into the above post, re turf course condition.

Comments from track super:

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/golden-horn-quick-ground-unlikely-for-horn-in-turf-swansong/1978640/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

[miff]

Phil,

Surprisingly candid, track supers/venues loath posting anything but fast/firm.Seen many layover types swallowed up by slow boggy-ish turf courses. Gonna be a factor imo

Good Luck
Mike

[miff]

Pouring....again! Grass races may be tougher to handicap than originally thought.

[Agastache]

FYI, it rained here in central Kentucky all night long. I know the Kee turf course drains well, but I\'ve seen TGJB give out dead rail designations on the grass course before. I\'d say its something to keep an eye on going forward to at least Friday. As of right now, it\'s still drizzling.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Mike,

I\'m here at track watched a few horses work on the surface ...

Quite frankly the runners are throwing out huge clods of turf on the turns fwiw ... Seems pretty deep right now.

NCTony

[miff]

Hi Tony,

Thanks, how are you? Players can\'t even get a break with the surfaces.The dirt also played weird for a few days after the rain in the early part of this meet.

Re turf, saw rocket ship type turf runners reduced to raw time mortals before this rain.

Good Luck

Mike