Euro Sheet Numbers

[Pkane05]

Can anyone provide guidance as to how use the euro sheet figs and whether anyone adjusts them when comparing with the American horses?

Thanks

[RICH]

subtract 1 1/2-2 pts for first time lasix

[mjellish]

I subtract 2 points for effects of slow early pace.  A little arbitrary but its about right in general after years of paying attention.  First time lasix can be even more.

[TGJB]

We have all the back BC sheets there for every one to look at in the Archives section, and everyone can draw their own conclusions. I can say we\'ve tested this twice, a couple of years apart, running comparisons on all the Euros that have run here. Figures on average are dead on. Lasix looks to be worth about a point, but that varies a lot horse to horse, presumably because some bled and some don\'t.

One of the reasons people think Euros jump up at the BC is that people only look at the ones that run well. Look at all of them. Also, Euro riders are much more conscious of saving ground and get the most out of the figures.

[miff]

JB,

Far more Euro\'s outrun their figs. The ones that don\'t run well means their number was correct?? Huh?

Mike

[TGJB]

I repeat-- we have done actual studies of this, twice. And that means looking at both the ones that run well and don\'t, as well as the BC and OTHER races year round. Anecdotal \"far more\" is for those who don\'t believe in statistical studies.

I would point out that studies like that were how we aligned the Euro and U.S. figures to begin with. Again, sometimes I wonder what you guys think we do here.

Also-- by definition, horses are running here AFTER running in Europe, not the other way around, and are therefore older. Which means with those age 2 and 3, who as a group are still developing, they figure to run slightly better here on average.

[mjellish]

To be clear, I am not claiming the TG figures are wrong.  The figure is what it is.  

What I am saying is that the early pace can affect the final figure because a horse can\'t close their last 1/4 in 20 flat to make up for an opening quarter that went in 26.  My understanding is that this is exactly why TG has a s_pace early pace designation in their past performances.  What that is saying is TG acknowledges that this can affect the final figure.  A sort of \"buyer beware -  this figure was earned with an unusually slow early pace.\"

So when looking at Euros on the grass, if you are trying to guess at how fast they could actually run assuming they are going to run their race, I think it is reasonable to say they could run 2 points better with an American style early pace.  These horses in effect run to their style and get \"sucked along.\"  

I too have done studies on this, and that seems to be more or less about right.

This is not to say that all Euros run 2 points faster or anything like that.  It\'s more or less the beginning of the handicapping process.  \"Who are the fastest horses?\"  \"What type of number do they run?\"  Therefore, what type of number will it take to win this race?\"  \"Who has run that number before, and who looks like they are ready to run it now/again or get weight, save ground, lose ground, etc?\"

[Pkane05]

So the pizza man would have won the arc over golden horn this year if we were just looking at the figs correct?

Thanks

[kurukshetra]

pizza man would have won the arc by 4 lengths, unfortunately he is a a gelding and  not allowed to participate.

[mjellish]

One more thing.  In looking at the grass races, the footing does matter.  Some horses really prefer hard/firm or soft/yielding.  Some are equally good on both.  I keep hearing everyone saying a general statement that the soft/yielding turf we are likely to see at the BC this weekend is going to benefit the Euros.  But a lot of the horses that have shipped over here actually prefer hard/firm ground and I don\'t think they are going to get that this weekend.  The Euro riders are also much more likely to try to save ground.  That\'s how they ride over there.  At the beginning of the fall meet this year it rained a lot, and the rail was absolutely dead on the Keeneland grass.  If it\'s that way again now that is also going to work against the Euros who run on that part of the course.

If we get soft/yielding turf I am going to be looking for turf runners that have shown a preference for soft/yielding footing that can make long, sustained runs, and I\'m not going to worry about saving ground.  The Pizza Man would be a good example of a horse that would fit that profile, although he\'s probably going to be an underlay based on his actual chances to win.

[TGJB]

He would have been spotting 8 pounds to the 3yos in the Arc, on the Euro scale.

For those with good memories who have ben with us since the handwritten sheet days, Hovedey\'s column about Dancing Brave brings back memories. He won the Arc and was declared a superhorse, but his figure that day was nothing-- there were 5 (?) older horses within a length of him, and weight adjusted all earned a better figure. He wasn\'t even a contender on figures in the BC-- we took a big position against him, and he actually got the same figure in the BC he did in the Arc.

Pretty sure we\'ve taken a similar position against all the Euro superhorses coming out of the Arc-- as long as they\'ve been 3yos. And some if not all the other Arc winners that ran here and lost. Easy enough to look in the Archives and see what they looked like.

And while we\'re on the subject, if someone wants to do the work you can do a basic study of the Euro figures using the BC Archives. All Euros, last number there vs the one they ran here. If you want to make it more interesting, break it out by Lasix or not. The sample size is decent.

[jma11473]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> Pretty sure we\'ve taken a similar position against
> all the Euro superhorses coming out of the Arc--
> as long as they\'ve been 3yos. And some if not all
> the other Arc winners that ran here and lost. Easy
> enough to look in the Archives and see what they
> looked like.
>
>

Correct; no Arc winner has won a Breeders Cup race.

[Wrongly]

Bit of a overblown stat since only 4 horses have attempted it over the past 20 years. Workforce scratched and Sakee ran 2nd in the Classic.  Dylan Thomas ran 5th in the monsoon at Monmouth, Hurricane Run ran 6th at CD, Bago 4th at Belmont, and Montjeu 7th at Churchill.

[TGJB]

My point was not that they lost but that we took a position against them before they did.