Bruce Jenner Stakes

[shanahan]

So a gelding wins a race for fillies and mares, no one notices in the paddock...and pays $222 to win!
You go girl...

[jp702006]

That is way to funny! I read the article on Bloodhorse, somebody made a killing.

[Boscar Obarra]

I keep seeing folks hallucinating that some killing was made.

 I know it\'s the internet, but please, there\'s no evidence one red cent was bet by someone who KNEW this was happening.

 This doesn\'t look like LEBON/Chinzano to me.

 110-1, in a small pool. You have any idea how little $$ was bet to win? 110-1, thats what  horses goes off who have three legs, bet by  drunks who calls out the wrong number.

 So if they made a killing, and bet, you are saying it would have been 200-1 without the \'smart money\'.

 cmon.

 That, and how do you think you can substitute a gelding for a filly, and get past the test barn if you win?  lol, even the Three Stooges wouldn\'t be that dumb.

[jp702006]

Who said they had to have a win bet to make a killing? They could have scooped the pool in the exotics. Sure the pool was small, but it was still more money than the winners share in a 5K claimer. Do you seriously believe that the trainer, groom and or anyone else associated with the barn couldn\'t tell the difference between a filly and a gelding? Especially since the gelding in question just happened to run two days prior. The world must look wonderful in those rose tinted glasses you wear:)

[Boscar Obarra]

Whatever you say pal, wouldn\'t want to step on your paranoia.

[jp702006]

I\'m not paranoid, I just call it how I see it. We\'ll just have to agree to disagree.

Patrick

[richiebee]

L-O-L-A, Lola!

[colt]

This reminds me of the exchange between Sam \'Ace\' Rothstein (Robert De Niro – Casino, 1995) and a casino-floor employee, who is employed by Sam as a favor to young man’s uncle, who is connected with the Nevada Gaming Commission……
 Ace Rothstein: Four reels, sevens across on three $15,000 jackpots. Do you have any idea what the odds are?
Don Ward: Shoot, it\'s gotta be in the millions, maybe more.
Ace Rothstein: Three f____\' jackpots in 20 minutes? Why didn\'t you pull the machines? Why didn\'t you call me?
Don Ward: Well, it happened so quick, 3 guys won; I didn\'t have a chance...
Ace Rothstein: [interrupts] You didn\'t see the scam? You didn\'t see what was going on?
Don Ward: Well, there\'s no way to determine that...
Ace Rothstein: Yes there is! An infallible way, they won!
Don Ward: Well, it\'s a casino! People gotta win sometimes.
Ace Rothstein: [grows more irritated] Ward, you\'re p___ me off. Now you\'re insulting my intelligence; what you think I am, a f___\' idiot? You know goddamn well that someone had to get into those machines and set those f___\' reels. The probability of one four-reel machine is a million and a half to one; the probability of three machines in a row; it\'s in the billions! It cannot happen, would not happen, you f____\' m____! What\'s the matter with you? Didn\'t you see you were being set up on the second win?
Don Ward: I really think...
Ace Rothstein: [interrupts] Wait! You didn\'t see that you were being set up on the second win?
Don Ward: I really think you\'re overreacting...
Ace Rothstein: Listen, you f____\' yokel, I\'ve had it with you. I\'ve been carrying you’re a__ in this place ever since I got here. Get your a__ and get your things and get out of here.
Don Ward: You\'re firing me?
Ace Rothstein: I\'m firing you. No, I\'m not firing, I\'m firing you, ya...
Don Ward: You might regret this, Mr. Rothstein.
Ace Rothstein: I\'ll regret it even more if I keep you on.
Don Ward: This is not the way to treat people.
Ace Rothstein: Listen, if you didn\'t know you were being scammed you\'re too f____\' dumb to keep this job, if you did know, you were in on it. Either way, YOU\'RE OUT! Get out. Go on, let\'s go.

From the CEO to the groom – they  all should be fired/fined/jailed/suspended.  As for a betting coup, the local pools are too week to maneuver without getting notice, so the logical playground is offshore.  We have seen this play a few times on the Ohio circuit – a few years back the pools on a non-descript 5k claiming event, which has a 1/9 m/l favorite, were manipulated for a major offshore score.

[Topcat]

colt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This reminds me of the exchange between Sam \'Ace\'
> Rothstein (Robert De Niro – Casino, 1995) and a
> casino-floor employee, who is employed by Sam as a
> favor to young man’s uncle, who is connected with
> the Nevada Gaming Commission……
>  Ace Rothstein: Four reels, sevens across on three
> $15,000 jackpots. Do you have any idea what the
> odds are?
> Don Ward: Shoot, it\'s gotta be in the millions,
> maybe more.
> Ace Rothstein: Three f____\' jackpots in 20
> minutes? Why didn\'t you pull the machines? Why
> didn\'t you call me?
> Don Ward: Well, it happened so quick, 3 guys won;
> I didn\'t have a chance...
> Ace Rothstein:  You didn\'t see the scam? You
> didn\'t see what was going on?
> Don Ward: Well, there\'s no way to determine
> that...
> Ace Rothstein: Yes there is! An infallible way,
> they won!
> Don Ward: Well, it\'s a casino! People gotta win
> sometimes.
> Ace Rothstein:  Ward, you\'re p___ me off. Now
> you\'re insulting my intelligence; what you think I
> am, a f___\' idiot? You know goddamn well that
> someone had to get into those machines and set
> those f___\' reels. The probability of one
> four-reel machine is a million and a half to one;
> the probability of three machines in a row; it\'s
> in the billions! It cannot happen, would not
> happen, you f____\' m____! What\'s the matter with
> you? Didn\'t you see you were being set up on the
> second win?
> Don Ward: I really think...
> Ace Rothstein:  Wait! You didn\'t see that you were
> being set up on the second win?
> Don Ward: I really think you\'re overreacting...
> Ace Rothstein: Listen, you f____\' yokel, I\'ve had
> it with you. I\'ve been carrying you’re a__ in this
> place ever since I got here. Get your a__ and get
> your things and get out of here.
> Don Ward: You\'re firing me?
> Ace Rothstein: I\'m firing you. No, I\'m not firing,
> I\'m firing you, ya...
> Don Ward: You might regret this, Mr. Rothstein.
> Ace Rothstein: I\'ll regret it even more if I keep
> you on.
> Don Ward: This is not the way to treat people.
> Ace Rothstein: Listen, if you didn\'t know you were
> being scammed you\'re too f____\' dumb to keep this
> job, if you did know, you were in on it. Either
> way, YOU\'RE OUT! Get out. Go on, let\'s go.
>
> From the CEO to the groom – they  all should be
> fired/fined/jailed/suspended.  As for a betting
> coup, the local pools are too week to maneuver
> without getting notice, so the logical playground
> is offshore.  We have seen this play a few times
> on the Ohio circuit – a few years back the pools
> on a non-descript 5k claiming event, which has a
> 1/9 m/l favorite, were manipulated for a major
> offshore score.


Any book who has the heart to hold significant Thistle action at track odds (even with a 15-1 cap) is begging to be taken.

[Boscar Obarra]

yep, I hear the offshore books got taken for 5 million, and even after hearing it was a ringer they were too embarrased not to pay.

[moosepalm]

Here\'s the chart.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MVR110415USA9.pdf


I guess people are going to see what they want to see.  I\'ve been around Finger Lakes long enough to know that no pool is too small for someone to try to tilt.  But, you\'re not going to have ten guys walking out with suitcases full of money.  Maybe Mathcapper can tell us if any of these pools look hinky.

[jp702006]

It seems to be a pretty strong exacta pool for a 5k claimer at Mahoning, no? Maybe they have strong mutual pools there, I don\'t really know one way or the other. There obviously was much more money to be made in the exotic pools than there was from the winners share of the purse......

[Mathcapper]

moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here\'s the chart.
>
> http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MVR110415
> USA9.pdf
>
>
> I guess people are going to see what they want to
> see.  I\'ve been around Finger Lakes long enough to
> know that no pool is too small for someone to try
> to tilt.  But, you\'re not going to have ten guys
> walking out with suitcases full of money.  Maybe
> Mathcapper can tell us if any of these pools look
> hinky.

The exotic pools at these smaller tracks obviously won\'t correlate as well to the win pools (which are generally the most efficient) because the pools are so small.

Having said that, it\'s pretty clear that the winner was nowhere near 110-1 in the exotics, because if you go strictly off the win odds, the exacta should\'ve paid twice what it did, the tri 15x what it did and the super more than 4x.

Without having handicapped the race, it\'s hard to say whether or not the horse\'s fair odds really should\'ve been 110-1, but what the exotic payouts imply for the winning combos is that he was around 50-1 in the ex pool, 6-1(!) in the tri, and 25-1 in the super.

- Rocky

[Boscar Obarra]

Don\'t fall into the trap of selective analysis. They\'re pointing you at this one race, where it\'s 99.99% likely the wrong horse was led over. What kind of moron would think they could pass a gelding off as a filly , not only through the identifier, but the testing barn as well. All this for a 20k or 30k payday?

 There are dozens of races every day around the country  where the exotic payoffs are dramatically lower than the win odds would imply.

 The tri was low most likely because of the #\'s, 1-3-5.  

 And with extreme longshots you RARELY get fair value in the exacta , expecially with another bomb, in this case 20-1.

  What do I know, only been watching the pools for 40 years.


  PS, Nothing to do with this race, but someone called Byk and asked about the exacta at AQU where the 5/2 over 80-1 only paid 260 or so.

  I didn\'t have the race up live, so I didn\'t see the betdown the caller talked about , supposedly 600 earlier.  Don\'t have to.

  Happens all the time. Every day. And 99% of the time they lose. Could be someone(s) that liked the favored winner, and didn\'t like the other shortish prices, and played hard on the rest.  Could have been smart money. You never know.  

  Doesn\'t mean a thing in the long run, and if you played all these \'hammered\' numbers you\'d probably lose not only the takeout , but two or three times that.

[Mathcapper]

Boscar,

Agree with everything you said. I was just presenting the equivalent math without attempting to draw any conclusions.

Race-to-race anomalies occur all the time, especially with small pools as I pointed out, and extreme longshot combos which, like you say, often come in light.

Granted, this was a big anomaly, but my guess is that it was simply that. Then again, like you say, you never know.